Itstrainingtime

@paweather - CTP just provided their PM update. They added a mix of rain/snow to grids for Sunday, lowered temps some, but mention in their discussion that it'll be a rainstorm SE with a mix across central PA. They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast.

Not sure that much will be on the ground with these temps:

My EZ Pass account moves faster than digital snow inches disappear from maps.

An OP run at a 7 day lead time? It's not a likely resolution regardless of how much it makes sense at this point.

Euro ended up NOT cutting per se - storm got up to between Cincinnati and Columbus and then shot due east across the PA Turnpike.

Euro for next week - it's going to cut, but the high as depicted is in the right spot to provide some CAD to start:

Tony Soprano!

Convergence - models that were the farthest west have come east, those that were east have moved west. Result is not good for the LSV, central PA is still in line for some frozen.

And hour 96:

Hour 90:

Hour 84 low pressure over Blowing Rock NC with some snow NW of Harrisburg and rain SE of there.

12z Euro hour 78 - low is just NE of Tallahassee with light snow spreading over the PA border into the Laurels.

Will the Euro keep hope alive?

Light rain and 39.

Elliott's thoughts: After one of the warmest first 18 days of #January on record, two storm systems bear watching for the first winter-weather threats of the month in south-central PA. The first comes Sunday afternoon through Monday morning w/the second slated for the middle of next week.. The exact track of each system will be critical in determining precip types, but the odds favor both being "snow-to-rain" or "plain rain" events in Lancaster County. With no high-latitude blocking in place, both systems will move quickly, limiting how much precip can fall.. Areas north of I-76 and west of I-81 have a better chance of receiving a slushy accumulation of snow from one or both systems, but it's too early to start discussing potential amounts. Any N/W shift in the storms' tracks would mean even less snow.. or thwart snow entirely..

Good news is he finished with a make. So with your logic, we're going to score.

Icon, GFS, and now the Canadian send the storm on the 25th on a path that will make Iowans happy. That system looks like it's going to really wind up - if so, that might be what we need to shuffle the deck.

Canadian with snow N&W of Harrisburg with rain SE of there. (Sunday storm)

GFS continues the trend of a weaker system...I just don't think that weaker cuts it with marginal temps.

Agreed - just posting what it was showing.

ICON sends the system on the 25th right up through... Indianapolis.

ICON is slower as well - precip doesn't move in until after dark.

CTP won't update the weekend until this afternoon's package. They'll finesse today's rain over the next several hours and will then turn their attention to the weekend thereafter.

NAM with a much colder thermal profile allowing snow to fall well south of any other model at this time.