Hard to believe that this thread is actually one of the most optimistic ones around right now. The overall mood in other regions is glum. And that's putting it nicely.
We need a Miller A to swing up out of the Gulf and lay down a long stripe of white gold for the entire east coast.
It kind of hit me this morning walking across campus while getting soaked -
I'm at 1.25" of snow for the season on 1/19. The first 1" of that fell and then melted all while I was at work one day. Bottom line, I haven't seen anything beyond a heavy dusting for the season. The upcoming week or 2 holds some promise...but for us in Lanco especially, it's been really bad. If you remove the few bitter days around Christmas it's really been an extended fall that hasn't ended.
It's not just the NWS either - I've yet to see or hear a forecast for Lanco that even mentions snow for the Sunday event. I see nothing but rain with temps in the low 40s during the day dropping to the mid 30s Sunday night.
I would guess that today would be the day that changes in the forecast might happen?
Low made it as far north as the Ohio River - a little too far north for the southern tier. A shunt just a little farther south would have made almost all of us happy. (2nd storm)
18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA.
With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization)
The loop is from the last 3 runs of the model (0z, 6z, and 12z) for the same time stamp, which is 6z Monday morning. The loop shows that with each new run, the low is centered farther SE than the previous run.
CMC and GFS at 12z look almost identical - perhaps a bit more frozen early on in the SE on the CMC but the overall evolution is nearly lock step with the GFS.