Itstrainingtime

Forecast low was 31 - it's currently 27 with clear skies...

Main roads are brined around here - you'd think that Lancaster hasn't seen snow in a long time or something.

I honestly think that will end up being pretty close. Time will tell.

You might very well be right! As of now, none of us can say with any certainty how much or how little it will snow in our general area. We all have opinions and there's reasons behind all of them. I do find it somewhat humorous that you've been bashing the GFS most of this season, but now that's "forecasting" the most snow...you support it.

I should have added that - systems aren't even able to attack a stout arctic airmass. Minus that feature...yeah.

MU admitted that he missed the mark badly on January - after nailing the snowless December, he thought that January would be winter's coldest and snowiest. I guess if MU somehow manages to get a tenth of an inch tomorrow...January will be in the running for the snowiest!

And anything that cuts should not surprise us when it fails.

In all seriousness - I feel like the NAM map that our good friend @Mount Joy Snowman posted is often how the rain/snow line works with storms....what starts out as "MIGHT mix with sleet/freezing rain for a time" in Lancaster often ends up with the mix line into southern NY state. Watching the pretty colors steadily migrate north with this system reminds me of that.

Still think MDT comes in under 1".

Am I the raining guy? LOL NAM looks interesting!

What you posted is for 10am, correct? If so - it's not snowing where we live...

Me thinks there will be somewhat of a reduction in purples on the latest map...

I saw that we might have a couple of very short windows (3-5 days) to score something - that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Looks like CTP took another step down with projected totals:

Rants are totally understandable. I was on the edge yesterday myself. This isn't just to/for you, but to everyone really - it's interesting to me how personal perception can change day by day. Yesterday, I was surly, negative, and almost ready to be confrontational, really. This winter had me at my breaking point. I was genuinely upset over the weather. Today? New day. Weather hasn't changed much, if anything the outlook has gotten even more bleak. But I'm okay with that today. It is what it is...nothing I can do to change it. My mindset today is almost to make fun of the situation and just have fun with it. Nothing has changed today in my professional or personal life, either. Simply a new day and I woke up with a different perspective. Can anyone else relate to what I'm saying?

Well stated - question is...will that wall of precip come in while we still have thermals? If the precip is delayed a couple of hours, we lose our window.

Meso's vs Globals again - I'm hedging on the Meso's.

Elliott has spoken: A #WinterWeatherAdvisory has been issued for the Lower Susquehanna Valley from 4 AM to 4 PM Wednesday. Snow should overspread the region from west-to-east between 8-11 AM and then changeover to sleet and eventually plain rain from south-to-north.. I don’t expect any accumulations south of the MD Line (precip starts as rain or sleet there). Between the MD Line and PA Turnpike (east of Route 15), a coating to 1” is most likely with 1-3” expected north of the Turnpike and west of Route 15.. Up to 4” is possible in the higher elevations of Perry and northern Dauphin Counties. Precip should change over to plain rain by midday south of Route 30 and by 2-3 PM in northern parts of the Valley. With temps near or above freezing, main roads should generally be wet.. .. but secondary roads could turn slushy and even snow-packed, esp north of the Turnpike. Allow extra travel time tomorrow, drive within the speed limit, and increase following distance. I expect @millersvilleu to finally receive measurable snow but no more than 1 inch..

That's actually funny...

Better for us that it's in his hands and not through his foot.

Sure seems like something needs to change in order to provide realistic opportunities for areas SE of the ridges. Agreed - at this point I doubt MDT records 1".

I sort of did - my original thought was 1" or so at most. Having said that, I did waver and started believing some of those maps posted. As Bubbler said - expectations were too high given the setup.

Lancaster is in the white shading there - that means snow...right?

Thank you!

You're south of the turnpike?