Itstrainingtime

Elliott keeps ITT hopes alive by jumping in and throwing me a bone. An excerpt from this afternoon: I anticipate a shift toward persistently chillier conditions during the second (and perhaps third) week of March. The Greenland blocking is expected to slowly retrograde westward into northeastern Canada over the next 5-10 days. As it does so, the Jet Stream will be forced farther south into the mid-latitudes and beat down the upper-level ridge over the Southeast. With the strong blocking in place and potential for a Jet Stream ridge to briefly flare up over the Rockies sometime between March 10th to March 20th, the odds of a late-season snowstorm will go up. Will snow-lovers be treated to a last-second surprise before the official start of Spring? I don't have the answers yet, but winter's "endgame" saved the entire season in both 2017 and 2018. Can history repeat itself? Stay tuned to find out! ❄️ -- Elliott

Someone just ruin-ed the parade in the MA thread.

My "premise" for a mid March snowstorm was born when the SSWE took place a week or two ago. When a SSWE occurs, very often, but not always, cold and snowy weather in the eastern US will result with a lag time of 3-4 weeks. From when the event occurred I went ahead that amount of time and that took me to the middle of March. Also, there's been a lot of encouraging signs, especially on the EPS that the trough out west would get kicked east beginning next week and that would hopefully squash the SER at least temporarily, opening up our window of opportunity. Today's Euro is one the first OP runs to start showing the explosive potential that exists IF things progress as the EPS has been depicting. Still doesn't guarantee us anything...but I think this is the best opportunity we could be facing for something noteworthy over the past couple of years.

What a cruel, sick joke. LOL!

Dear god they're talking (and woofing) about another March 1993 in the MA thread.

I'm much more worried about suppression than a cutter in this time frame.

Welcome aboard! Still plenty of room for more passengers on the itsTRAINingtime express.

46 and scattered clouds here. Latest GFS paints 20" of QPF for Mammoth CA in March. Euro is much "drier" with only about 8" of QPF. Even is the Euro is correct, that's likely another 10' of snow in the next 30 days. By that point I'll be 7 weeks from my trip. In town they've now received 524" of snow with a current snow cover of a staggering 203".

Step on aside, Simon Cameron! LOL

First DT and now JB jumping on my thoughts. What is this world coming to?

Friday was never ours. (might we get some frozen, sure - but it was not going to be a snowstorm in Lanco) You will enjoy your mid March paste bomb and like it!

I hope so - I love when it's dark by 5pm in December. I feel like it enhances the holiday spirit for me and it's also an indication that it's winter time...even if the actual weather isn't cooperating. Moving the clocks ahead is actually depressing to me. Yes, I know that's not a popular opinion and yes I know that I'm weird.

That's a crushing setback to my storm...

I've been following. I just want the moisture stream to be available to us once the new pattern settles in.

Not much to get excited about on the long range GFS - does look like a lot dry weather until the end of the run when yet another cutter is taking shape. Sigh.

They defer to Chuck in Earniest.

That's exactly what Chuck said was going to happen with this storm...

I just came back from the office lunchroom - I got a lot of strange looks (okay...not really, everyone here knows I'm a goofball) because I was singing it while heating up my lunch. And not the "Candy Man" lyrics either...I was singing the Canderson lyrics! LOL

To the tune of "The Candyman": Who can bring the rainfall? Sprinkle it with winds? Cover it with warmth until it feels like spring, The Canderson can, The Canderson can The Canderson can cause he mixes those things to make it feel like spring...

Someone posted this from their home this morning in Mammoth Lakes - new Blizzard moves in around noon today with 3-4' of additional snowfall by tomorrow:

Probably spot on with that assessment.

I just checked with Elliott - he's calling for a chance of an isolated shower. He also added this: As meteorological winter comes to a close, here are some astounding climatological stats from @millersvilleu. For the 2nd time in 4 years, no measurable snow fell at MU in Feb. Both #january2023 and #February2023 will be the 2nd-warmest on record but #1, in aggregate.

Hmm. Tomorrow night has NOT been on my radar - CTP has me at a 20% chance of a scattered shower.

You knew who else is one of the head snow hounds? Ji. He's really...optimistic.

Friday's storm - I'm a kid sitting in the back of the family sedan in the early 70s uninhibited with no seat belt. Next week's opportunity - fast forward to today when I'm in the car with the buckle is latched and I'm fully secured.