Itstrainingtime

Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30". (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes)

CTP vs. Elliott - the showdown is hours away!

(1/4) For snow-lovers in south-central PA, tomorrow's storm isn't it. There are just too many things "wrong" with the setup. First, surface temps tomorrow afternoon are going to be in the mid 30s N/W of I-81 to low 40s along the MD Line.. too high for much if any snow to stick.. (2/4) Next, a rain/snow mix will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~7-11 AM before changing over to rain from south-to-north after midday. Here's the problem: precip prior to midday should generally be on the light side.. (3/4) Any AM light snow will struggle to overcome the strong March sun and high ground temps, making accumulation difficult if not impossible. Finally, the upper-level low (ULL) will track just to our north, and colder air/steadier precip are found north/east of a ULL's center.. (4/4) To sum it up, roadways will just be wet tomorrow.. great news for motorists! Areas S/E of I-76/Rt 15 will struggle to receive a coating of snow on non-paved surfaces, & 1-2" amounts farther N/W should be confined to higher terrain above 750 ft. Even that isn't a guarantee..

Kinda bold...here's Elliott: Due to the milder trends with tomorrow's storm & my expectation for no snow accumulation on paved surfaces, I've deemed a snow map unnecessary for this event. Any winter-weather road concerns & meaningful snow amounts should be confined to areas along/north of I-80

Here's CTP's updated (noon today) snowfall forecast - everyone gets something except for... you guessed it! Lancaster!

Dumb question - what is the difference between a zone forecast and point and click? I picked downtown Harrisburg and the forecast on P&C is for less than a half inch.

Just saw that - it will change many times but as depicted on THIS run we're on both the western and southern edge of decent snowfall. I'd love to see a thread-coverage win...at least for the entire LSV who has done nothing short of abysmal this year.

Welp... A 995 low pressure off of OBX and this is my result: A rainstorm. Sigh.

My train is moving due east about 75 miles west of East Palestine Ohio...

Dear God - local NWS office out west in their morning package/AFD mentioned snow accumulations for the impending storm beginning this afternoon of 90 - 120". Then another 3-4' early next week.

Part of me wants to laugh but mostly that makes me want to cry.

I'll sign now for that.

Ouch for most of Lancaster/York...

I'm not sure that the Euro is right with this, but let's play along and say that it is - given the location, track, and intensity, it's really hard to believe we wouldn't have gotten more snow out of that solution.

That was taken yesterday in town - in advance of the 5-7' coming starting tomorrow... Ski area is now making plans on possibly being the first U.S. ski resort to not close during a calendar year.

Okay...time to fess up and come clean...I was NOT in meetings this morning. A friend took this pic of me out on my morning walk:

Euro actually deepens the low right off the NC coast and moves slowly up the coast. Verbatim it's really close to a much bigger outcome, especially for eastern PA.

Map in question: (maybe more falls after this @paweather)

Definitely NOT 3-4" across the LSV from what I see on Pivotal...many areas yes, but again to say "all of the LSV" is just not accurate.

Read as you desire and have time: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

So...my period of interest is bringing everyone snow but me? That ain't supposed to be the drill here! LOL

I'm in meetings all morning - please, please keep the snow train on the track until the train man gets back after lunch.

34 and still quite brisk this morning. Beautiful morning though with a gorgeous sunrise.

Pattern looks really, really good by next Monday - Ridge over Boise, Baffin block, 50/50 in place, trough neutral over the Tennessee Valley.

Euro/NAM combo is tough to ignore.