Itstrainingtime

As for this coming Monday, perhaps the timing of the front will help mitigate the severe threat somewhat: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging is forecast to remain in place over the southern Plains and Southeast States through the weekend and into the middle of next week. A belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow is expected north of this upper ridging from the northern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeastward into the northern/central Plains on D4/Sunday before continuing eastward across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading into the central Plains on D4/Sunday and across much of the OH Valley on D5/Monday. This strong mid-level flow is still expected to support severe thunderstorms as the shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front interact with moist and unstable airmass across the Mid MO and Mid MS Valleys on D4/Sunday. Mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen on D5/Monday as the shortwave matures and develops a closed circulation. The severe thunderstorm risk will persist eastward into the OH Valley on D5/Monday amid this strengthen upper flow. Best overlap between this strong flow and airmass destabilization is current expected to occur from southern OH into KY and WV. Depending on the overall evolution of this shortwave, and its attendant surface low and cold front, some severe risk may continue into D6/Tuesday as the strong mid-level flow associated with the shortwave expands into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, current expectation is for the front to be offshore early D6/Tuesday morning. The belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier of the CONUS will likely persist into D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday. There is at least some potential for another shortwave trough to progress through the northern Plains and into the Mid/Upper MS Valley but inconsistency within the guidance leads to low forecast confidence. ..Mosier.. 08/10/2023

Looks like things are a little more pleasant up on the Mount.

MU Weather Center @MUweather Showers & some steadier rain will continue to overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley through 10 AM. The morning & evening commutes aren’t looking too bad, though! Most of the rain should occur between 10 AM - 3 PM before tapering off. Many areas will receive around half an inch.

CTP's forecast for here from yesterday indicated rain would fall mainly after 11am, and that looks spot on now. That was my forecast and not what models were showing.

Surprised that the sun is out here at work.

Great that his mother, wife and baby girl saw it live.

Welcome to Philadelphia, Michael Lorenzen.

To be fair...ITT recorded 0.00" officially at home.

And now it's a full-on downpour. It's riding right down the river.

Despite zero mention of rain in today's forecast, it's actually raining pretty darn hard out there right now. Edit: It's raining quite hard here at work. No rain at home. Wife says "whaddya talkin' about?"

A few big raindrops here at work now. MU cranking the heavy rain threat for tomorrow...

Mini bonus appetizer before tomorrow. CTP has upped expected amounts it looks like...calling for a general .5" - 1". Hopefully we can keep an every few/several days of rain pace.

Been a long time since I went to Taco Bell...mainly because the next day was Taco hell...

We do annual heat illness prevention training here at work.

Looks like we go through another strong storm with trailing frontal passage scenario around the Monday timeframe, and that could bring yet another bout of severe weather...

Going to need to shag some more help to clean up that mess.

Sunny and 82 at 12:10pm.

I think I understand the fiber of your message...so you're saying that tomorrow isn't seamless?

The only person who you claim deserved this doesn't give a rat's ass what happens on the field anyway. Those players have nothing to do with this.

I might be angrier than I have at any point in my life right now. I'm sick. The ""Orioles" did not deserve this. In fact, they deserve so much better.

That's exactly what I'm afraid of.

The clouds today have a fall-like appearance to them... I was out over lunch and started daydreaming (still focused on driving, of course) about fall football Saturdays at Beaver Stadium coming soon.

Thank you! I have not looked at any guidance, I've only been seeing a mention for a chance of a thunderstorm on Thursday and what you've been describing seems a bit more in-depth than that.

How much rain potentially is on the table?

Finally. I was 18 when the Orioles won the 1983 World Series. I had been a huge fan since my dad took me to my first game on 33rd Street in 1976. During the first decade of being an Orioles fan meant 2 things: A whole lot of winning An organization that was the envy of baseball - "The Oriole Way" Back then, I was naïve enough to think that winning titles would come rather quickly...an excruciating loss in '79 followed by a 100 win season in '80. The incredible end to the '82 season followed by the '83 championship team. Life was so good... That was 40 years ago. Man, I'm getting older. Older, and still waiting for a return trip to the Fall Classic. So many of the last 40 years have been lost and hopeless. But now, the young guns are flourishing and it's been an absolute joy to watch. This team is fun. It plays hard. They play the game the right way. It's almost like a rewind of the clock back to when I was a kid... But...now this. You all have said it better than I can. What an embarrassment. The thing that makes this particularly bad is that it now diminishes what's happening on the field. For the first time since I was a kid, the Orioles have been talked about by others with admiration...respect...awe...and now this. Why? How can a family be such a public relations disaster?