Itstrainingtime

Man, I'm sorry. I know the feeling. I've never been a good sleeper. And when I am actually sleeping well, I have to get up at some point to use the bathroom and then I'm toast. Hardly ever do I go back to sleep.

I am losing sleep waiting for your first snow map of the season.

Finally from MU: Due in large part to an unseasonably warm first week of the month, aggregate temps in #October2025 ended up slightly above average. Rainfall was near normal thanks to the "last-second save" on the 30th.

Sorry, the above posts are out of order. LOL Forecast has a ton of similarities to last year, including the forecast of a late December/early January cold snap that he nailed.

Here you go, snow lovers! The moment you've been waiting for is here: my 2025-2026 Winter Outlook! Three primary winter-season influences will be a weak La Niña, strongly-negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) & weak stratospheric #PolarVortex (SPV). The weak SPV should allow Arctic air to plunge into the Central/Eastern States at times, mainly before mid-Jan & perhaps again in late Feb or Mar. Analogs suggest the coldest/snowiest part of winter could be around the holidays due to high-latitude (NAO/AO) blocking. Despite plenty of mild days during the 2nd half of the season, odds of a #WhiteChristmas are the highest in years. From Dec-Feb, aggregate temps should be slightly above normal (0 to +2°F). "All-rain" & "changeover" events will be common after mid-Jan with more "all-snow" events beforehand.

MU:

Probably the best I've watched since the 1975 series. Nothing compares to that. But this one is right up there vying for #2 with a few others.

We are so ready for tonight. Tagging along with our daughter, husband and our granddaughter. They live in Florin Hill, last year was our first time out with her (she was 2) and she filled her bucket in about 20 minutes. There is SO much trick or treat potential awaiting in that development tonight. (Pappy just might have a second bucket in reserve to keep the good times rolling a little longer )

We have a station onside at work now and the total there was just 1.12".

Yes, according to that map I'm just inside the 1.5" shading but I had 2.42" at 1pm.

Isolated cells are a poppin' now.

2.41" of rain has fallen here. Solid.

Whoa: The stability comes into play in another way, too. Model soundings yield very high shear in the lowest 3kft. There could be supercell structures form as the eastern edge/side of the dry slot moves across the Lower Susq. With low LCLs (very moist environment), there is a chc for an isolated tornado or two. Temps should get into the 60s in the SE as the sun should break through at times, esp late in the day in the dry slot. That would help CAPE climb closer to 1000J. The SPC MRGL risk is painted into our SErn 6-8 counties for this very reason. If we can get upright convection (even shallow), there is a risk for svr gusts and even tornadoes. As the afternoon continues, the favorable convergence of all the svr params will be waning/breaking up.

Right behind you at 1.86" and adding up very quickly. It is pouring.

There is a firehouse set up now coming out of MD directly into western Lanco - I wouldn't be surprised if some of us get close to 3" by noon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

1.72" of rain so far with numerous lightning strikes shaking the house, one in particular was VERY close around 8:15am.

I think today might be nicer than yesterday was. More sun this afternoon.

Here's the snippet: In the wake of the storm system, winds will turn westerly Thursday night and intensify on Friday. The tight pressure gradient, or difference in pressure, between the storm system and an area of high pressure over the Southern States will be the culprit for some "spookily high" wind gusts of 45-50 mph on Halloween. Sustained winds should be on the order of 20-30 mph.

@canderson - MU calling for winds up to 50 mph on Friday...

I get it, and I'm sorry.

That's what happens as we get closer to winter.

28.8 this morning - first 20s of the season. Let's go!

Good god is Melissa a beast right now.

Coldest temp of the season this morning here in Maytown, checking in at 33.4 degrees First frost of the season here at my house, and it was a doozy. Solid blanket of white. Interestingly, I saw no other frost outside of Maytown on my way to work. It's been the exact opposite several times over the past few weeks. Had to scrape my car windows before leaving for work. No, I do not start my car and go back in the house. I like to be out and scrape. (with the engine defrosting)