Itstrainingtime

Yep, just came back to say that I have a cartopper!

Got some very light snow action here in Maytown. 26 degrees.

Rain is bad too when so many others in the thread are enjoying snow...

One common theme (at least it seems this way) that continues this season for southern tier folks is snow falling both north and south of us before we get into the action. Some nice pics coming out of MD/VA this morning. The sky certainly has the snow look down here. Reminds me very much of 1970s/early 1980s winters when areas south repeatedly cashed in while I wallowed in my tears.

Thanks! Getting it exactly right was pure luck. Being in the ballpark was somewhat easier by expecting the winds and clouds to have a direct influence on the temp. It just felt like guidance and forecasts were way too aggressive on how cold it was going to get. I sorta felt bad about missing your backyard's temp by 5 degrees until I realized that I nailed MDT on the button...and that's the only one that matters, right?

Yes indeed...I just feel like a combo of temps almost always failing to get as cold as predicted, an ongoing breeze plus cloud cover coming in later will cap it. I was going to say 19...we'll see!

I'll predict a low of 21 for MDT. You will get down to 17.

Yes sir, the pattern has not been conducive for large storms. It could occur but the odds heavily go against that. The LSV is often caught in a "dead zone" in this type of pattern...flat southern waves that target VA and the Carolinas and stronger systems that cut and bring us mixing storms or plain rain. For those of us along the southern tier that essentially whiffed on Tuesday, we're going to need some help this winter. I feel like odds are in our favor that we score a couple of times along the way.

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances: MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

I've had both and much prefer my Ambient station. Simple setup and very accurate.

Please god, no...I can't even fathom what Ben is suggesting: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47189142/ben-roethlisberger-james-harrison-call-mike-tomlin-steelers-split

Outside of some showers the GFS looks really dry over the next couple of weeks.

I wish I could have shoveled.

Yes indeed!

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models.

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week: Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now) Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

Oh, maybe they did close? My wife texted me that it was snowing while kids were getting on the bus. It might have been a bus for a private school.

Yep. Someone mentioned a day or two ago that they didn't buy what the NAM was showing...I sure did.

Add Donegal to the list of schools that did open late. Good for you and your wife for getting your kiddo to school in a real district.

This is exhibit A of why you never want to be close to the southern/southeast edge of a snowfall map. This is from just hours prior to the event. The "blues" were only 30-40 miles farther north in reality which is difficult for a model to nail down precisely, but if you're near the southern edge of any model output snowfall map...brace for the screw-o-rama.

Ah the joy of living in Lanco: @MUweather Despite early mixing issues, this last burst of snow should push snow/sleet totals into the 2-4” range for most areas north of the Turnpike and west of Rt 15 or South Mtn. However, southern parts of Lancaster and Chester Co’s won’t even get a coating.. along with @millersvilleu .

I thought we were still snowing at home, my wife just informed me that it's been pouring rain for at least the last 30 minutes. The only evidence of wintry precip here on Turkey Hill is the tree line behind the office is icy...and that is it.

I'm sorry, he did say "we" but I assumed he meant that for his area in which he lives.

I thought he said that "he" would end up with 1"? He is at home in Dover. It's raining here at work, it is snowing moderately at home.