Itstrainingtime

MU released a video to compliment his previously-issued winter outlook. He broke things down even further: For Lanco specifically: December: 1-3" of total snowfall. Temps 3-5 degrees AN. He feels confident that December is a torch January: 7-11" of snowfall. Temps 1-3 degrees AN. This month will regress into a wintertime pattern as the month progresses. February: 12-20" of snowfall. Temps 1-3 degrees BN. He had 7 analog years, which included big storm winters of 1982-83, 2009-10 as well as 2015-16. He did say that another 3 of his 7 analog winters ended up being duds, with 10" or less total seasonal snowfall. It is a risk. There may be only a couple/few pure snow events in Lanco, but the risk is high to pile it up in those events. His late season storm track would suggest that the further east you are, the better come February. (areas west of Lanco figure to do much better earlier in the winter while we enjoy some nice rainfall.)

Here is Doug's map - excuse the wrong year, it was a mistake and this forecast is for this winter:

By the way - there is a met who works in DC that seems to be respected a lot by our neighbors to our south. His name is Doug Kammerer, and he made a lot of headlines last year when he issued his seasonal forecast for DC that was for 1-6" of total snowfall. People were mocking him for his "ridiculous" forecast...well, he nailed it. Someone posted his 2023-24 snow map earlier this week - he has our area in his 38-52" range. MA peeps said that when he was delivering his winter outlook, he was very excited...and apparently that's not the norm for him. He's all in on a snowy winter for all of us.

Interesting read, thanks for sharing. This is the first "official" winter forecast that I've seen that is going BN for temps. A lot of thought out there that December will torch, January will start warm and cool later (still ending up AN) followed by a BN February.

If your calendar includes 2024, I don't see how anything could you stop you from removing the November 2023, December 2023, January and February 2024 pages right now. In a matter of seconds your calendar can read March 2024. That alone might make you feel better.

Just about to 70 at home now - 69.4 to be precise.

I can't help myself - every time I hear or read the words "so bad" I always go back to this moment: (you have to watch the whole thing to understand :))

Enjoy - that sounds amazing right now.

39 this morning in Maytown. Beautiful fall day unfolding.

Also...at noon this coming Saturday, I'll be heading west on the PA Turnpike to the Steel City. You mind dialing up a win in Happy Valley for me?

That's a good 5 degrees higher than me, but not out of line overall it looks like. I feel like I'm often the warmest and I'll gladly concede that honor to you.

Made it to 66 here and has fallen back now to 64.

Sunny and 66.2 at 12:35pm.

I'm the comeback kid!

Morning! 65 here.

They need to change their offensive mindset in the 4th quarter against elite teams and in pressure games. Embiid ain't it. It's frustrating to watch them play like this and know that come playoff time it'll be Embiid getting the ball 25 feet from the cup and either turning it over or putting up wildly low percentage shots. But yeah...this team does seem different early on.

Drew Allar looked like the 5 star QB in high school today. Opening up the offense and he's starting to flourish. Defense holds Maryland to -55 yards rushing...next week could be very interesting. Also...the Sixers are infinitely better without James Harden. Offense is fluid and fun.

90 minutes later and it's 65 here. 16 degree jump in a short period of time.

Wow, it's 49.7 here...

33 in Maytown this morning, just missed our 3rd consecutive freeze.

Same here - 36 degree rise from my morning low of 27.

There was a 3rd storm near the end of Feb. 2010 that looked like it might crush us yet again...but just missed to our NE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_25–27,_2010,_North_American_blizzard#

I think...that in most of our area, the first storm dropped more snow; however, the 2nd storm was actually more impressive. While the first storm featured heavy snow, the follow up was a true blizzard. I had verified blizzard conditions the morning of the 10th, and the snow really blew and drifted from that bad boy. Just an amazing amount of snow on the ground after that...might not see depths like that again in our lifetime.

At least here it went down like this: Friday/Saturday, Feb. 5/6: 25" Wednesday, Feb. 10: 21" I had a 35" snowpack on the morning of February 11th. By February 16th, grass was starting to show in spots.

Colder this morning than yesterday - 26 this morning compared to 28 yesterday. Very surprised.