As for this coming Monday, perhaps the timing of the front will help mitigate the severe threat somewhat:
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is forecast to remain in place over the southern
Plains and Southeast States through the weekend and into the middle
of next week. A belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow is
expected north of this upper ridging from the northern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A shortwave trough is
forecast to drop southeastward into the northern/central Plains on
D4/Sunday before continuing eastward across the Mid/Upper MS Valley
and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this system, spreading into the central Plains on
D4/Sunday and across much of the OH Valley on D5/Monday.
This strong mid-level flow is still expected to support severe
thunderstorms as the shortwave trough and associated surface low and
cold front interact with moist and unstable airmass across the Mid
MO and Mid MS Valleys on D4/Sunday. Mid-level flow is forecast to
strengthen on D5/Monday as the shortwave matures and develops a
closed circulation. The severe thunderstorm risk will persist
eastward into the OH Valley on D5/Monday amid this strengthen upper
flow. Best overlap between this strong flow and airmass
destabilization is current expected to occur from southern OH into
KY and WV.
Depending on the overall evolution of this shortwave, and its
attendant surface low and cold front, some severe risk may continue
into D6/Tuesday as the strong mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave expands into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
However, current expectation is for the front to be offshore early
D6/Tuesday morning.
The belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier
of the CONUS will likely persist into D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.
There is at least some potential for another shortwave trough to
progress through the northern Plains and into the Mid/Upper MS
Valley but inconsistency within the guidance leads to low forecast
confidence.
..Mosier.. 08/10/2023