Itstrainingtime

It means that if you sniff real hard while getting soaked, you'll smell the good snows. You have to flirt with the snow line to get the good rains.

Given that the WSW is for 4-7", I'm going to guess we'll be either 1-3" or even 2-4" for now.

Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh.

1" in southern Lanco up to 8" NE - encouraging to see the bleeding stop and the pretty colors oozing SE once again.

Elliott: (1/3) Regarding this weekend’s winter storm, details are now coming into focus. Things have sped up a bit, and snow should now overspread northern MD and south-central PA from SW-to-NE between 10 AM and 2 PM Saturday. As expected, snow will mix with or changeover to rain/sleet.. (2/3) .. south and east of I-78/I-81 by the mid-to-late afternoon hours. It’s a quick-hitter, so precip tapers off Saturday evening. Snowfall totals will be highest across northern/northeastern PA with little or nothing in the immediate I-95 corridor.. (3/3) Untreated roadways will generally be snow-covered and slippery north/west of I-78/I-81 and slushy farther south/east. Significant precip lasts for all of 6-9 hours, greatly limiting snowfall amounts. I’ll release my “First Call” Storm Outlook Map later this afternoon.

Fair question - probably some of that is true for sure. However, there was a time that if the Euro was showing a snowstorm, you could pretty much take it to the bank. Ever since the "upgrade" there have definitely been times when it showed a snowy solution and moved away from it...hard.

Home or Harrisburg? Brilliant sun here in Conestoga currently.

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it.

That map is actually the closest thing to what I was saying/thinking in response to MJS this morning.

I hate to keep talking about "the storm after the storm after the storm", BUT - Looking at the GFS, and using MU's graphic that I posted earlier...me wonders if next weekend's low ends up becoming the 50/50. You can see the ridge axis moving onshore on the GFS, also as MU's graphic depicted, so my guess is that next weekend's storm probably does cut but sets the stage for the potential winter storm to follow later on during the week of the 15th. More likely, I'm wrong.

The low, at least on the GFS compared to yesterday is somewhat weaker. Hopefully that continues, otherwise I'm right with you on this one being a high impact wind event.

Canadian is a Lanco Letdown and Rouzerville Raking all in one.

This is MU at the most excited that I've seen him since he replaced Horst. Period.

I think it's going to be about the rates - if it can come in as a true thump, we score ourselves a couple/few inches. If it's light to moderate, we lose.

MU getting antsy about the time period he's been excited about: (from last evening) I'm not saying this will happen, but tonight's run of the ECMWF model depicts the "Grandaddy" of East Coast winter storm patterns by mid-month! We have it all here: a west-based -NAO, 50/50 Low, & #JETSTREAM ridge moving into the West. Things would get wild in the week to follow!

For those that are familiar with Mark Ellinwood, he posted his snowfall prediction map in the MA thread about 10-15 minutes ago. Always liked his maps - clean, easy to read, and most importantly...usually very accurate.

Well...there's @Mount Joy Snowman NW Lancaster county battle zone he predicted earlier...

One thing I'm seeing is that the "thump" only lasts roughly 3 hours or so, and once that initial thump moves east, we mix.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on Tuesday. I brought this up yesterday as it seems like a very high impact event.

We've had how many snow maps posted in this very thread? Shoot, a few days ago, some of those maps were suggesting that I was in line for 17 -20". And people wonder why I despise maps. I know that they're going to get into the hands of people that will exploit them and use them to rile up the unknowledgeable public. I was asked to schedule a Teams call for tomorrow at noon to discuss our operating schedule for the weekend. Associates have been asking if they're going to be held to the attendance policy if they can't get themselves dug out to get to work. Sigh.

I've been asked in the past where I get my thoughts from - and I always say "history". It matters. A lot.

Not much time this morning, but had to comment on this - terrific post. A post made using 3 different tools to get to your numbers: 1) Basic met knowledge (ocean water temps, screaming SE winds, etc.) 2) History - history tells us SO much 3) Current guidance For those reasons, I love your post. Specifically, your amounts. Based on the above 3 criteria, your numbers reflect that perfectly. My honest fear here...I've seen a few people say in the past 12-24 hours that guidance won't move much more. Oh, yes it still can. It's still "only" Thursday morning. It's not unreasonable to think that this system can't move 50-75 miles in either a positive or negative direction for us. And with that, what worries me most is #2 above. I'm just not convinced that this isn't going to trend even worse for a lot of us. Time will tell. Again, great post by you!

Midwest/Great Lakes low was farther NW on the most recent run. Need that low to keep it's distance.

Introducing...Henry Margusity. As of yesterday he had all of us at 12-18". LOL

This is important and I agree. Column can be cooled with dynamic rates.