Itstrainingtime

1" - 1.25" of QPF for many in southern PA on the RGEM. A wee bit different than the NAM.

NAM trying really hard to make Elliott as iconic as this legend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfebpLfAt8g I remember this game like it was yesterday. Fortunately, ABC showed it on their end of day scoreboard show about 12 times. It ain't over until...it's over. And he isn't wrong until...he's wrong. He'll still likely be wrong...we shall see.

Consensus seems to want to keep it in one thread now. Going back to 2021 and before, we often had dedicated storm threads. We haven't had any storms worth a thread the past couple of years...but we had a nice storm-specific thread in 2021.

We better hope this is wrong because we're getting WAY too close to the dreaded cutoff line that I always worry about.

Speaking of snow droughts - interesting data from the Sierra village of Mammoth Lakes. Even some of the snowiest areas of the country are hurting badly this season - As of 1/3/2023: 262" of snow had fallen for the season (January would end with 397") As of 1/3/2024: 13" of snow has fallen for the season (12" of which fell yesterday)

I'd say we're both right.

Yes, you are correct...at the same time, this map does not include the entirety of next week's storm.

Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play. The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.

That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday:

I really, really do hope he is wrong...but until he is wrong, he isn't. I've seen models/forecasts for a lot more snow than this disappear with much less time remaining before onset. I'm not negative, but I am jaded. Many, many years of last second failures has taught me to assume nothing when it comes to snow. Until it's on the ground, that is.

So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern?

Well, a lot of crews plow at like 2" now, so sure.

MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow.

It's not a cop out, it's a well penned and thought out explanation. And accurate.

12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks.

I know that you know what I'm about to say: I have been following all of these southern storms all fall. I invest in all weather. A lot of these storms have ended up hundreds of miles farther N/NW than anticipated 4-5 days out. And it's only Tuesday- next storm is still 4 days out. What happened previously does not guarantee anything with our next storm...but there is a real "chance" that this could end up skunking us. Which is precisely why I wanted those stupid snow maps showing pretty colors over VA. The inevitable move north was coming. And I fear, based on recent and distant history that this isn't done moving north/west.

LNS lost 6.1" on the latest Euro.

I lost that much...

Agree with you. I just meant that your area down through South Mountain typically jack with a storm track as depicted currently.

Canadian not very good for us SE peeps.

That's probably the most realistic part of that map.

I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number.

Good reminder - it will be Wednesday before we know anything with some level of confidence.

That's exactly what I noticed. 0z was better.

The only thing that fails more than snow is my Birds.