Itstrainingtime

Did I just see the low sitting off the Jersey coast next Sunday?

Roundtop is opening up again tomorrow. Their snow making team kills it.

That is true; however, most of those storms were 24+ hour events. The main show for tomorrow is going to be in a 6-9 hour window.

LOL, nope, it was not. But thanks for the insult. It's obvious that being a realist is equivalent to being negative. You have no clue how many times over the years that your pretty snow maps resulted in nothing more than a bunch of puddles in my backyard. As a realist (based off dozens and dozens of prior experiences) I will remain skeptical (not negative) until I have reason to be different otherwise. Those snow maps mean very little to what will actually happen. Funeral...geez, I thought we were having fun. It's not fun any longer though.

It is somewhat interesting that this is the 5th consecutive run that the low was SE of the previous run...

Yesterday's AFD from CTP even mentioned a severe threat with this - I remember a few severe storms in February (had a significant threat/Tornado Warning just in the past 5-6 years) but to have one in early January has to be exceptionally rare.

GFS is also very wet - over 1" of QPF for us. I think that matters a lot for us to win on this one.

Could be a few different takes on this. Either way, I'm betting the under.

Saw a well-respected met share these thoughts in the MA storm thread...interesting (and sobering) "The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same."

4-8" might end up well NW of Harrisburg.

Another thing I was thinking about yesterday - whatever happened to the winter days where snow flurries and squalls happened several times each winter? I remember so many days when I was younger when the forecast was "mostly cloudy today with on and off snow flurries and squalls....the ground may be whitened from time to time..." We seldom if ever have those days anymore...especially down this way.

It is rapidly becoming more and more likely that my no shoveling streak will continue. 2021 was my last shovel. Just an unprecedented run ongoing. And yes, I'm aware that we've had rough stretches before (I am 58 years old) but nothing in my lifetime matches this futility.

I thought CTP's map yesterday was a kick in the loins...and then they somehow topped it:

MU cautioned last evening that MUCH could change overnight/today. Both good OR bad. He had very low confidence in his snow map for being less than 48 hours out. New map coming later today...

Of all of the bad, highly inaccurate snow maps, that version might be the worst.

If the Euro and some of the Meso's end up correct, PLEASE let this be a reminder that nothing is written in stone 48 hours out. (or more) Some here thought we were immune to major changes on Wednesday night and even yesterday. There have been plenty of storms that 24 hours out, looked like the mix line would set up over Lanco. The reality is that it set up over the northern tier counties and even southern NY state. And that's not an exaggeration. Every storm is different and has nuances...but the idea of the mix line ending up WAY farther NW than modeled happens more often than some people want to remember. We can hope this one is different. I remain skeptical.

Pretty much right back to where we were 24 hours ago.

MU's map is out but can't post on my phone. 1-3" south of turnpike, 3-6" for most everyone else in the LSV. He said significant changes can still occur...

You're not wrong... My once a season snow map.

First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) (1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia.. (2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned

CTP's new amounts:

Disappointing...the actual run/progression looked pretty good.

It means that if you sniff real hard while getting soaked, you'll smell the good snows. You have to flirt with the snow line to get the good rains.

Given that the WSW is for 4-7", I'm going to guess we'll be either 1-3" or even 2-4" for now.

Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh.