Itstrainingtime

Once again, MillvilleWx just told people in the MA thread to completely ignore the HRRR. He said it is completely lost. @Bubbler86 - totally agree with you on the temps today and the HRRR.

He trimmed back the coastal influence area to our east. Biggest thing that's changed since yesterday's first call.

An impressive climb considering the cloud cover. 35-36 seems within reach at this point.

Temp is above freezing for the first time in several days - 33 in Maytown.

Good point. I still think we'd lose a fair amount of what we have though. There was melting yesterday under full sun and much colder temps with the frozen tundra.

MU had this to say within the past hour: An area of high pressure centered off the Carolina coastline will promote lighter winds and slightly milder conditions today. However, high temperatures will still be around 5-10 degrees below normal and generally in the low-to-mid 30s. Skies will be mostly cloudy well in advance of an approaching disturbance. The disturbance will track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Delmarva Peninsula spanning Thursday night to Friday evening. To its north, plenty of cold air will be available for precipitation to fall entirely in the form of snow. Light snow should overspread northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between 3-7 a.m. Friday and continue into the late-afternoon or early-evening hours before ending. The steadiest snow should occur late Friday morning into the mid-afternoon hours. Roads will quickly turn snow-packed and slippery, so exercise extreme caution in the hazardous driving conditions. A general 2-4" of snow is expected across the region. Behind the winter storm, another Arctic air mass will plunge into the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States from Friday night through the end of the weekend. Northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph are anticipated Friday night before increasing to 15-30 mph on Saturday with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Due to the strong winds, there will be areas of blowing and drifting snow on Friday night and Saturday. Drive within the speed limit, obey travel restrictions, and allow extra space between yours and other vehicles. Low temperatures will bottom out in the teens Friday night with highs only in the low-to-mid 20s Saturday afternoon. As a result, wind chills may fall into the negative single digits late Friday night and Saturday morning and only reach the high single digits Saturday afternoon.

They raised tomorrow's expected high temps several degrees - my forecast is the same as yours - last evening my forecast was for a high of 28 tomorrow.

Exactly - without the clouds, the snow would be waving bye bye.

Can we take a sec and appreciate the cloud cover today? With temps rising into the 30s, if we had full sun, we'd be staring at snow on piles tomorrow instead of snow on snow. These clouds are saving our pack, big time. If I could draw it up...it would stay cloudy to about 4-4:30, clear off for 4-5 hours, then cloud over later this evening. Give me a few hours of radiational cooling first.

Welcome back Jon. I'm sorry for the public bickering I took part in with the trolls. I didn't mean to add fuel to the fire.

Really, there are subtle (somewhat subtle) differences in QPF distribution across the area, the NAM really went wild east of here. That fell in line with MU's map, which is unlike most of the forecast maps I've seen.

Meh - if the tundra at Thomasville is at 19, I'm honestly surprised that MDT isn't higher.

ICON doesn't look like the NAM - no hint of higher totals in Philly metro and east.

21 in Maytown currently - just 2 below what MDT is reporting which would make their number seem legit to me. Within the last hour MU has fluctuated between 16 and 20.

0z NAM looks very much like MU's thoughts...

That map goes directly opposite of what our area's likely leading met just posted. LOL

In fairness @Blizzard of 93 - MU's Kyle Elliott agrees with you. (It wouldn't be right for me not to post this after my rebuttal)

I just don't think you can look at snow maps and say "well, we should be good for what the maps are showing" - that almost always results in disappointment. I'll take the under and win a king's ransom more often than not.

I do have an honest, factual point to what you're saying. Virtually every single snow map that was posted for yesterday's event (I went back and looked at every one of them, even though it pained me) had Lanco getting between 4 up to yes including, 7" of snow. Most Lanco ACTUAL snowfall totals were between 2.5 and 3.5". That is not an uncommon occurrence. The vast (and I do mean VAST) majority of time...what actually accumulates is less than those snow maps. Are there exceptions? Sure. But they're just that - exceptions. Which is reason #27 why I don't like snow maps. They are usually too inflated. I believe I'm not speaking incorrectly here.

And at least here where I work, it's currently windier than it was last evening at this time. I just walked across campus to my meeting site and I was stunned how hard the wind's blowing.

Tom Russell for the win? (he tweeted this within the past hour)

By gametime this might end up being congrats @pawatch (who did better than all of us with the last event even though he was fringed going into it)

I posted CTP's map last evening for the Friday event - looks like they've ADDED 1" to their new map:

You're absolutely right, there has been a lot of sublimation going on. One of the curses of low water content snow. I'm also right - there is a lot of melting ongoing as well. The water running isn't a result of sublimation.

Millersville's director of Met has been talking about the SSW for the past couple of weeks - Mitch, what you've said in these posts mirror his thoughts perfectly. While not a certainty, MU believes that colder, snowier weather is around the corner. The timeframe that you mention seems spot on with his thoughts as well.