Itstrainingtime

He might have been thinking this before today. I doubt he went into the weather center and suddenly thought "ah hell, I'm changing my mind today" - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess this has been coming for some time.

Of course not...even the very best get it wrong from time to time. That said, I'm certainly a lot more concerned than I was 24 hours ago. He's as good as he is for a reason.

He seems to revel in it, too...

Sort of...but not really in the sense that it or "he" could fail - if you read his winter outlook, he clearly states that there was a boom/bust potential this winter. While Ninos are often snowy, some of our really crappy winters have come during Ninos. He crushed December and January - time will tell what happens next.

That was pretty much the last thing that I expected to read...especially how confident he seems to go along with it.

It was kind of a kick in the groin to read that - soured my day. Oh well. It's his opinion. It's a highly educated opinion, but could still be wrong.

MU's thoughts on the weekend storm and February: (he's thinking his cold and snowy February forecast will be a big fail) By Saturday afternoon, my attention will turn toward a developing storm system over the Deep South. The track, speed, and intensity of the storm system are presently highly uncertain, but odds favor it exiting the East Coast somewhere around the Delmarva Peninsula or New Jersey Sunday night. Skies will turn cloudy again Saturday evening, and more wet weather is a "good bet" later Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures will initially be way too high for any snow or sleet concerns, but a cold air mass draining southward out of New England could cause rain to change over to snow Sunday night. If this transition happens fast enough, then several inches of wet snow could fall across parts of the region. However, rain could just as easily end before any transition to wet snow. In this type of pattern, predictability has and will continue to be limited to a time span of 3-4 days. Thus, I'll post an update on and have a full analysis of Sunday's system at the end of the week. In the meantime.. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 6 and moved through phases 4 and 5 over the last 10 days. It will likely reach phase 7 by the weekend and may possibly stall there through the first 7-10 days of February. During El Niño, MJO activity in phases 4-7 often leads to a persistently mild and snowless pattern in the I-81 and I-95 corridors of the mid-Atlantic States in January and February (see below). There is usually a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so effects of the recent MJO activity just began over the last 48 hours. In addition, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the North Pole every winter, has become very strong and stable following its weakened state during the past 3-4 weeks. Instead of being stretched out and split into two pieces, it is now in the shape of a doughnut over the Arctic Circle and expected to remain near the North Pole or drift toward the Eurasian side of the globe by early February. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storms and a less-amplified Jet Stream. To make a long story short, the odds are stacked against a significant snowfall or any more intrusions of Arctic air through at least the middle of February. As a warm-weather lover, I certainly won't complain, but this is admittedly a big change from my expectations for February in my Winter Outlook. I could choose to "go down with the ship," but there's no point in doing so when the writing is on the wall. In the words of the famous Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to fold em'.." -- Elliott

It really is. It's reached the point now where I wish it would all be gone. There's a point when it's melted so much that I'd prefer to clear the slate and start over again. I'm speaking for my yard specifically. I know @Mount Joy Snowman said he would have snow cover until tomorrow - I need to check out real estate in his neighborhood.

The team literally never gives up. With Torts as their coach, they're afraid for their lives to even consider it.

I lost a lot of coverage of my snow pack overnight - down to about 50% coverage. (more in some areas, less in others) This raises a question that I have - what constitutes snow cover? For an official reporting station, at what point is it determined that they officially go from "no snow cover" to "snow cover" and back? Using my example...is 50% coverage considered snow cover?

Can I just say that since I made quoted post this past Thursday night that the Flyers have promptly gone 0-3. LOL

It literally just happened again - I am in the process of hitting submit for a post of mine when JUST before that...someone else says the same thing. Thanks Canderson.

What I remember most is that the NAM was the first model to really focus on incredible totals near and along the 81 corridor in PA while some of the "varsity" models were focused further south. The NAM gave the Euro and others a little edumacation that event.

I remember as a teen reading that our general area got a 12" snowfall about once a decade. I think between 2010 and 2019 we had at least 5...the 3 on the chart above plus the 2 big March storms.

Talk about big snowstorms happening much more frequently lately - MU just posted this today. Glean at your discretion... MU Weather Center Since 1926, @millersvilleu has only received 8 snowstorms of 18" or greater. Here they are! Jan. 7-8, 1996: 30.0" Jan. 22-23, 2016: 26.7" Feb. 16-18, 2003: 25.5" Feb. 11-12, 1983: 24.0" Feb. 5-6, 2010: 24.0" Feb. 15-16, 1958: 20.0" Feb. 9-10, 2010: 19.0" Mar. 13-14, 1993: 18.0"

Although I'll likely never see a storm exactly like March 1993 again, a wound up triple phased monster is something that I yearn for. And if it means I mix over at some point while areas west get obliterated with feet of snow, so be it. I'd just like to experience something close to the Superstorm again in my life. I honestly think that even though March 1993 was dubbed the 100 year storm, I think the odds are at least decent that there is a wound up monster sometime sooner than later.

Right? Thanks for affirming what I was thinking and beating me to the keyboard. LOL

I am really confused with this post - I just spent a lot of time going back through this thread and I see NONE of what you're talking about. Many of us acknowledge that the next couple of weeks don't look good at all (you said the same thing) but I think everyone is universally hopeful/encouraged by what's coming thereafter. Did you even read our thread? If so...

@mahantango#1 - you take some amazing pictures of your beautiful landscape/countryside...thank you very much for sharing them with us.

Admittedly, I have been a big critic of #21 for years. Look, he is putting together an incredible season. One of the best I've witnessed since starting following the NBA regularly in 1976. He is doing it all. But...he needs to show up in the postseason. 2 points in the 2nd half of an elimination game is not acceptable. He doesn't need to score 70 but he has to produce SOMETHING, otherwise the murmurs will only get louder.

@canderson - MU just shared this: After a blustery and frigid weekend, southwesterly winds on the backside of a high pressure system centered over the Outer Banks will usher a more seasonable air mass back into the Lower Susquehanna Valley today. The moderating trend will continue throughout the week, and high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds will increase Tuesday in advance of an approaching disturbance and its associated warm front. Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle may develop later Tuesday night, but more widespread showers or periods of steadier, light rain should hold off until Wednesday. There could be slick spots on secondary roadways, bridges, and overpasses during the Wednesday morning commute. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday evening are expected to remain under one half of an inch, so flooding won't be a concern despite the addition of gradual snowmelt.

Something "fun" to watch - set up looks conducive for a sneaky very warm day.

No specifics, but on CTP's homepage the hydrology tab shows no or the most insignificant rises...at least on the main stem. Graph shows the river staying WELL below even the action stage. Rainfall will occur over several days plus the snow pack has a relatively low water content. Not an issue at all it seems.

Just realized that MU is calling for highs in the 60s here on Friday.

Thank you for bringing this up - I was thinking about it on the way in to the office this morning. I'm concerned for sure. This "opportunity" is flying under the radar, big time. Not likely, but if precip moves in earlier than expected which it often does...look out.