Itstrainingtime

MU predicting a high temp of around 65 for you today...

Elliott not backing down from his "no snow" this upcoming week stance: model solutions of the storm's track and intensity will continue to change, and in some cases drastically, from run-to-run. Using large-scale pattern recognition, interior New England has the best chance for accumulating snow. I'll have a full update tomorrow!

This would be an absolute bonus if we saw measurable snow. Not into the pattern that supports snow yet.

Next Tuesday continues to get more and more interesting...I'm still keeping expectations in check.

I edited my post just to show how incredibly historic last year was. They are still over 500" below last year's seasonal total.

His last video was from Monday - that was after the weekend storm that dropped 49". They just got an additional 48" since he made that video. With the 100" this month, Mammoth Lakes is now only 237" behind last year's pace. They're at 186" YTD - same time last year they were at 423"

'ya think? LOL

"life in the eastern sierra"

I'll just add on here that since February 1st, the town of Mammoth Lakes has received exactly 100" of snow as of 6:00AM Pacific time. It is snowing currently.

30 this morning in Maytown - dropped to 28 last evening prior to midnight but 30 is the lowest for the day. Intrigued by the guidance for the early week storm.

Following...

Yes! That's an easy one to misunderstand. Then again...Mrs. Training says that I'm terrible with lyrics. I told her that when I was a kid, I thought that Rod Stewart was singing about "Cow Shit" instead of "Passion".

England Dan and John Ford Coley had a song in the 70s "Really Love To See You Tonight" - the start of the chorus is "I'm not talking about movin' in" but I swore for years they were singing "I'm not talking about the linens" LOL

Since @Bubbler86 likes to reference Ralph lately...another of Ralphie's favorite "instructions" is to "keep expectations in check" which applies here...

Saw this and broke out into song... ...and now I have a bunch of familiar faces looking in my office wondering what in the hell is wrong with Mike.

Well stated...

Nice thing is that if we do break record high temperatures at official terminals, we won't have to wait long to be informed.

That's a big difference in a relatively short area - I'll have to see what my son's place got down to. He lives very close to Hostetter's.

It was...I only got down to 23.4 here, I think the map you posted yesterday for this morning showed lows about 10 degrees colder. However, the model has consistently undercut both forecasters and other guidance all winter and has often been the closest come verification time. Today was just a bad day. LOL

Ralph will punt in despair with the next bad model suite. (there's definitely some history with that, LOL)

He definitely seems to be on an island with the early spring idea...and he's not backing down, either. Going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

Sizzling off the press from Elliott: Looking ahead into next week and the second half of February, there continue to be signs of a large-scale pattern change. However, the magnitude and duration of that pattern change remain rather uncertain. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 7 but should finally progress into phase 8 around Valentine's Day. In stark contrast to phase 7, MJO activity in phase 8 favors colder and stormier weather in the mid-Atlantic States. There is often a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so the brunt of the colder air may not arrive until February 17th-20th. Additionally, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the Arctic Circle every winter, may weaken during the second half of the month and get "dislodged" off the North Pole. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storm systems and a zonal, or less wavy, Jet Stream pattern, but an unstable SPV can sometimes precede cold air outbreaks and signal a stormier weather pattern across central and/or eastern North America 1-2 weeks later. However, this is not always the case, and the cold air can just as easily dump into Europe or Siberia. Despite the uncertainties, there should be at least one or two more opportunities for a significant (3"+) snowstorm between February 15th and March 5th. I'm also keeping an eye on a potential storm system next Monday into Tuesday, but the air mass to its north will probably not yet be cold enough for snow in the I-81 or I-95 corridors. There won't be a source of cold air over northern New England and southeastern Canada, and the system could easily just slide across the southeastern United States and out to sea. Needless to say, I'm not impressed by this "thread-the-needle" opportunity for snow. At this point, the most likely scenario is for Monday to turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and still quite mild with highs in the 40s to perhaps 50°F. There's still time for things to change, but I advise winter-weather fans to keep their expectations low. Check back on Thursday or Friday for an update! Oh, and as I mentioned on Friday, a warmer weather pattern should return during the second week of March due to the progression of several different large-scale features. Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- Elliott

Who is the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity?

22 this morning in Maytown. Frosty start to yet another beautiful, sunny day!

I've called for that move for years. Sixers aren't going to win with or without him. Might as well make a big move and go in a different direction.