Itstrainingtime

MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow.

It's not a cop out, it's a well penned and thought out explanation. And accurate.

12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks.

I know that you know what I'm about to say: I have been following all of these southern storms all fall. I invest in all weather. A lot of these storms have ended up hundreds of miles farther N/NW than anticipated 4-5 days out. And it's only Tuesday- next storm is still 4 days out. What happened previously does not guarantee anything with our next storm...but there is a real "chance" that this could end up skunking us. Which is precisely why I wanted those stupid snow maps showing pretty colors over VA. The inevitable move north was coming. And I fear, based on recent and distant history that this isn't done moving north/west.

LNS lost 6.1" on the latest Euro.

I lost that much...

Agree with you. I just meant that your area down through South Mountain typically jack with a storm track as depicted currently.

Canadian not very good for us SE peeps.

That's probably the most realistic part of that map.

I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number.

Good reminder - it will be Wednesday before we know anything with some level of confidence.

That's exactly what I noticed. 0z was better.

The only thing that fails more than snow is my Birds.

Still some hints of a Miller B evolution. Always makes me nervous.

Rain/snow line looks like it's riding I95. A little closer than the previous run.

100% on your warm air intrusion concerns. I am 90% worried about that and 10% about suppression.

No...that's Alabama and Shitigan.

You may be right. But I still would rather be in our position now then holding on to the SE edge of snowfall. Where were we 5 days out in 1983? 1996? 2009? 2010? 2016? We were on the outside looking in. All 5 of those came north and clocked us. Sure, no guarantee that will happen this time but I'm actually more optimistic now than I've been in years.

I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada.

Do you have any concerns with the ridge axis placement? To me, it looks a little west of our ideal location of Boise Idaho. I'm still nervous of our storm coming too far inland based on that map.

Thank you for the PBP.

In other words...almost always correct.

Respectfully, I disagree to say that I would much rather be in the middle, or even the northern fringe rather than near the southern cutoff. That almost never works out for me.

Well...that has been the call since the beginning. At least his. So, nothing has changed. Also important: his audience is Lanco. Back towards 81 could very well be different.

Just sharing a met's thoughts... Elliott: "there remains hope for snow lovers from mid to late January through February. Prior to mid-month there is little chance of winter weather."