Not much time this morning, but had to comment on this - terrific post. A post made using 3 different tools to get to your numbers:
1) Basic met knowledge (ocean water temps, screaming SE winds, etc.)
2) History - history tells us SO much
3) Current guidance
For those reasons, I love your post. Specifically, your amounts. Based on the above 3 criteria, your numbers reflect that perfectly.
My honest fear here...I've seen a few people say in the past 12-24 hours that guidance won't move much more. Oh, yes it still can. It's still "only" Thursday morning. It's not unreasonable to think that this system can't move 50-75 miles in either a positive or negative direction for us. And with that, what worries me most is #2 above. I'm just not convinced that this isn't going to trend even worse for a lot of us. Time will tell. Again, great post by you!