Itstrainingtime

I thought CTP's map yesterday was a kick in the loins...and then they somehow topped it:

MU cautioned last evening that MUCH could change overnight/today. Both good OR bad. He had very low confidence in his snow map for being less than 48 hours out. New map coming later today...

Of all of the bad, highly inaccurate snow maps, that version might be the worst.

If the Euro and some of the Meso's end up correct, PLEASE let this be a reminder that nothing is written in stone 48 hours out. (or more) Some here thought we were immune to major changes on Wednesday night and even yesterday. There have been plenty of storms that 24 hours out, looked like the mix line would set up over Lanco. The reality is that it set up over the northern tier counties and even southern NY state. And that's not an exaggeration. Every storm is different and has nuances...but the idea of the mix line ending up WAY farther NW than modeled happens more often than some people want to remember. We can hope this one is different. I remain skeptical.

Pretty much right back to where we were 24 hours ago.

MU's map is out but can't post on my phone. 1-3" south of turnpike, 3-6" for most everyone else in the LSV. He said significant changes can still occur...

You're not wrong... My once a season snow map.

First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) (1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia.. (2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned

CTP's new amounts:

Disappointing...the actual run/progression looked pretty good.

It means that if you sniff real hard while getting soaked, you'll smell the good snows. You have to flirt with the snow line to get the good rains.

Given that the WSW is for 4-7", I'm going to guess we'll be either 1-3" or even 2-4" for now.

Can't begin to count how many times I've seen this. Sigh.

1" in southern Lanco up to 8" NE - encouraging to see the bleeding stop and the pretty colors oozing SE once again.

Elliott: (1/3) Regarding this weekend’s winter storm, details are now coming into focus. Things have sped up a bit, and snow should now overspread northern MD and south-central PA from SW-to-NE between 10 AM and 2 PM Saturday. As expected, snow will mix with or changeover to rain/sleet.. (2/3) .. south and east of I-78/I-81 by the mid-to-late afternoon hours. It’s a quick-hitter, so precip tapers off Saturday evening. Snowfall totals will be highest across northern/northeastern PA with little or nothing in the immediate I-95 corridor.. (3/3) Untreated roadways will generally be snow-covered and slippery north/west of I-78/I-81 and slushy farther south/east. Significant precip lasts for all of 6-9 hours, greatly limiting snowfall amounts. I’ll release my “First Call” Storm Outlook Map later this afternoon.

Fair question - probably some of that is true for sure. However, there was a time that if the Euro was showing a snowstorm, you could pretty much take it to the bank. Ever since the "upgrade" there have definitely been times when it showed a snowy solution and moved away from it...hard.

Home or Harrisburg? Brilliant sun here in Conestoga currently.

I was contemplating this on my drive to the office this morning - if the Euro is on an island showing a snowy solution, it will almost without fail abandon it. When the Euro is alone with a non-snowy solution, other models move towards it.

That map is actually the closest thing to what I was saying/thinking in response to MJS this morning.

I hate to keep talking about "the storm after the storm after the storm", BUT - Looking at the GFS, and using MU's graphic that I posted earlier...me wonders if next weekend's low ends up becoming the 50/50. You can see the ridge axis moving onshore on the GFS, also as MU's graphic depicted, so my guess is that next weekend's storm probably does cut but sets the stage for the potential winter storm to follow later on during the week of the 15th. More likely, I'm wrong.

The low, at least on the GFS compared to yesterday is somewhat weaker. Hopefully that continues, otherwise I'm right with you on this one being a high impact wind event.

Canadian is a Lanco Letdown and Rouzerville Raking all in one.

This is MU at the most excited that I've seen him since he replaced Horst. Period.

I think it's going to be about the rates - if it can come in as a true thump, we score ourselves a couple/few inches. If it's light to moderate, we lose.

MU getting antsy about the time period he's been excited about: (from last evening) I'm not saying this will happen, but tonight's run of the ECMWF model depicts the "Grandaddy" of East Coast winter storm patterns by mid-month! We have it all here: a west-based -NAO, 50/50 Low, & #JETSTREAM ridge moving into the West. Things would get wild in the week to follow!