Itstrainingtime

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. Maybe they come back? One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing.

I think this would qualify as heavy snow: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

GFS is reintroducing Boxing Day nightmares for me - what an epic bomb for the immediate coast though. A couple of inches for the LSV, a couple of feet for the eastern seaboard.

@sauss06 and anyone else who's interested:

That was a little discouraging.

Our "friend" weighs in...I guess he's saying there's a chance, which is something: All eyes are on the Sunday/Monday #winterstorm threat, but models are all over the place with respect to timing, track and intensity of the system. Essentially all scenarios.. from a major storm to a a "mix event" to plain rain to no storm.. are currently on the table. Unlike this past weekend, this system certainly has much bigger potential and should not be written off. However, you cannot shovel potential, and no specific details should be given until Thurs/Fri at the earliest. Given the chaos, I'll be writing my SWD tomorrow.

One more storm and I'll give this winter an A. As is, it's a B. Lots of cold but significantly below normal snowfall.

I've been following Mammoth's weather almost daily since my visit a few years ago. They desperately needed this storm, it hasn't snowed of much significance since right around New Year's. That's the thing about out there though - all it takes is a good week or so and they can pile it quickly. Despite the weeks without snow, this storm will put them over 200" for the season. Far short of normal but it's a start. They need to build up the water table now, otherwise fire season later this year might be grim.

I was! I have meetings all week on 2nd shift and drove home in the snow last night at 11pm. I measured .1" here at home at 1:30am. When I left work there was already more than that on top of Turkey Hill. Oh, I received .34" of QPF.

Yeah, sort of lost over the past several weeks of bitter cold and snow cover has been the real lack of precip. We really need things to turn around soon or we're going to have issues.

I was thinking the same thing; however, most of the models that were showing snow had it falling largely to our east, and that's what's happened so far.

Philly thread is full of posters currently reporting snow all the way to the Delaware River.

First sprinkles here at work. Temp is 42.6 to be precise.

Yes, that's been my fear. Last couple of days I thought the writing was on the wall.

Not overly surprising in a progressive flow.

52.2 here. Feels like 65. As much as I love cold weather, today is a stellar day.

My apologies! I intended to like your post and just realized that I did not. Sorry about that!!!

Today your first day this week without one?

It's actually 2/10s of a mile south of me.

Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle.

Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while.

I'm sure I'll be frowned upon. We don't have a good air mass. It's not like a March day when it's 55 but there's a NW wind cranking a fresh supply of colder air. What we have is stale. We can make stale work and night will help some but we need dynamics. GFS was a red flag to me. Less QPF is not our friend right now.

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

Please understand, I wasn't being critical of you in any way. I don't do that. It was just ironic that the GFS jumped on to something it largely wanted no part of even when the Euro did.

And then...came the 18z GFS.