Itstrainingtime

Looks like 1-4" in the LSV with more from the inverted trough west.

Not the way I wanted to go to bed. Euro doesn't even get New Jersey to double digits.

This is a valid point. Changes will continue over the next 30 hours. Which way will they go?

Here comes the ICON getting down and dirty...

Our friend MillvilleWx said the cutoff will be incredibly sharp and painful for weenies somewhere NW of the I95 corridor.

It really does. And it looks really close to something for the history books.

Nervous is a fair description. Hopeful is another. Also keep in mind that I was in Florida when our big storm hit in January. I want this bad.

Where did the Boxing Say storm track? I don't know, I'm genuinely curious. I had a WSW for 6-12" and got a dusting. My memory says it was pretty close to the coast off Delmarva. To be clear, I'm not thinking anything. I would call for 3-6" right now. I'm concerned but not to where I think it will fail.

So I'm going to say this one time and one time only - I love the trends. It's always a special thing when we get those situations when models move towards a favorable outcome and not the other way around. I'm genuinely getting excited... To balance that though...I to this moment can't shake this nagging feeling of a last minute rug pull. Seen it happen a few times too many. You know, there was a discussion a couple hours ago regarding the sharp gradient. This is a hallmark for this pattern. And another hallmark is a sudden shift east at the very last minute. I follow a met that I respect a ton (NOT MU) and he said about an hour ago that he feels strongly that the gradient is going to end up even sharper than is what currently shown on guidance. I could see that playing out. I honestly don't know what to think or expect. Literally nothing good or bad would surprise me. I think I needed to say this for my own sake more than anything. Be prepared for something special, something heartbreaking or anything in-between. Don't discount that gradient. Moving on.

Sharp cutoff is right. Sub-warning total in Harrisburg with 20"+ in eastern Lanco.

If we get into any kind of significant rates the temp will fall.

I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter.

Euro just made a not insignificant move in a positive direction. To clarify, it's much wetter in the LSV.

@Mount Joy Snowman https://www.weather.gov/ctp/2009-02-03-04-Heavy-Snow

The area of snow itself wasn't isolated, the 12" amount absolutely was, and it was centered in the heart of Manheim Township. Amounts tapered as you went both N and S from that area and most of those locations were more in the 4-8" range. @pasnownut said above he got 7" in Akron, for example.

It stretched from the northern part of the county near Ephrata right down 501 through Lititz, MT, Lancaster and down 30 east way. We're thinking of the same event, I thought it was an inverted trough but maybe that was just conventional thinking? I recently found the article but I can't now either. If and when I do find it, I will post it. I want to say it was between 2008 and 2015?

I 100% agree with this.

I was recalling that event in my mind on my way to work today... As I remember it, there wasn't any forecast of snow in Lanco the night of the event. I had pretty much tuned out the weather that evening as there wasn't anything for me to be watching out for. I went to bed, I remember looking out our window and seeing the moon shining brightly. Just a normal, chilly mostly clear night in Maytown. I had no idea what was happening 15 miles to my east... Next morning, I'm driving to work. Still completely clueless. I get to the bottom of Chickies Hill at the 441/30 interchange and there's PennDot truck with a plow sitting there. I'm laughing because A, it was a sunny morning, B, the ground was completely brown, and C, well, it was PennDot doing "what PennDot does best." I get to work and after several minutes I start getting messages that colleagues in Lancaster and surrounding environs are going to be late or won't be in at all. Great, the flu bug hit, I'm thinking. Then one of my best friends from childhood who works with me and obviously knows I'm a weather guy runs in and says "can you believe what happened in Lancaster last night...isn't that wild that they got that much snow and no one else got anything?" I go to MU's weather page and there's Horst with a picture of him standing outside of his MT house measuring 12" of snow. A foot! And 15 miles west, I had clear skies. Probably the only time in my life I felt like I was living in a snowbelt area and was just outside one of those bands. I'm still stunned to this day that it happened in Lancaster County/

I honestly wished that I felt as confident as you...but I do not. Unless, and we certainly might, but if we aren't under that inverted trough I fear that we're looking at snow showers that have a hard time doing anything until Sunday night. At least as far as ground truth goes, right now I'm thinking about a 65% or so chance we end up with 3" or less. Maybe a 30ish% chance of 3-6" and a 5% chance we exceed 6". Nothing that I'm seeing looks conducive to heavy snowfall outside of the GFS. I was hoping for some notable steps from other models today at 12z but that really didn't happen. Edit: If your casa ends up squarely under the inverted trough, 6" becomes a valid goalpost. Problem is, only a relatively small percentage of us will be. Double Edit: Meant to say 65% of 3" or less to make my math actually consistent.

I don't recall the last time I've seen an inverted trough show up on so many models so far in advance - someone will approach warning criteria snowfall from that alone.

Where in the world did they come from? You don't have any rain at all in your forecast. Wow. Radar looks like spring up your way.

CMC brings the Norlun Trough feature further east into the western part of the LSV. They are notorious for being both very fickle and can carry quite an impressive punch. If it materializes, that's probably the ticket to a 6" snowfall this far west.

I think the chances of "us" getting a significant (6"+)snowfall is quite low...probably no higher than 20%. A light to moderate snowfall is quite possible. And that would be sans coastal which is what the Euro really isn't interested in. So while I would tend to agree with you, this is more complicated than even the Euro can get a good handle on. At any rate, like I said about agreeing with you, it would be nice to have consensus on something. And we might not have that (good or bad) for at least another 24 hours.

GFS is keeping hopes alive in the 0z suite...

Actually, no...I was talking about getting 73" from the next storm alone! (The 12z CMC showed a bullseye of 73" over the Delmarva)