WinstonSalemArlington

Why? DT and many other people include North Carolina into the definition of “southern Mid-Atlantic.”

DT ALERT*: ⚠️**ALERT ** MAJOR CHANGES AT 500mb ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL END MILD PATTERN MUCH SOONER THAN INTIALLY THOUGHT⚠️ ...as I said in the Tuesday edition of THIS WEEK IN WEEK ... this is called UNDERCUTTING ... rare PAMELA ANDERSON Pattern change ... NEXT WEEK things are looking VERY different than what they appeared only 3-4 days ago. The 12z Models are showing some important changes. …TENN VALLEY southern Mid Atlantic snowstorm FEB 4-5? https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

February 10

12 days

Eric Webb: I’m still not buying the idea of a “torch” in early Feb over much of the Eastern US. Although we are getting a jet extension here, the southward shift of the Pacific Jet favors undercutting of the Canadian Ridge, keeping temps more seasonable east and south of the Great Lakes…. I still can’t quite figure out where the “true" beginning of spring lies in the longer-term over the Eastern US Even out to near the middle of March, we still might be stuck in this -NAO/east-southeastern US trough-type look. Imho, once we get past next week's Pacific Jet extension, we're in it for the long haul.”

January so far

Eric Webb: “ Over the next several weeks, we're repeating the same pattern progression we had in late Dec thru mid-Jan, except the cold(er) pattern on the backend of next week's Pacific Jet extension likely lasts longer (per usual for El Nino) Aside from Nino climo, +IOD collapse favors a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean forcing late in Feb into Mar, helping to keep the gravy train going. Remember that unlike Dec-Jan, Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar actually signals cold in the eastern US.”

Low of 19 today in Wilmington, NC. First time in the teens there in two years - Jan 2022.

11 at GSO

Nikhil Trivedi: “In summary, I’d expect the Eastern US to be mild through Jan 29 with a brief storm window Jan 29-31. We’re mild again to start Feb, with snow chances returning as we near mid Feb. The magnitude of the storm threats rely on what the NAO ends up doing.”

Western Ridge

Could this be the most depressed this Forum has ever been?

Phenomenal post!

water temperatures

Not everyone in NC is snowless

It’s interesting that the DMV has snow cover, but most of central North Carolina was colder than the DC area this morning.

Disgusting

Brad P doesn’t think this is a case of the Appalachians blocking the cold. He says: “actually, no, this has nothing to do with the mountains. The flow is out of the Southwest, and it's colder and snowing to our southwest. It's just where the trough is located, and the moisture, so the mountains play no role in this.”

I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster.

At least Roanoke, Richmond, and mountainous Northwest North Carolina got some decent snow. Until we get a western ridge, I am not hopeful for the Triad. We need the Eastern trough to be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, not along the mountains.

I fairly understand why the cold delivery had failed so far, but I don’t get why the moisture delivery has also failed. GSO has only had a piddling .02 inches out of this entire system. Is it downsloping? But why did Central Virginia and Northern VA get more precip?

What even is