WinstonSalemArlington

January so far

Eric Webb: “ Over the next several weeks, we're repeating the same pattern progression we had in late Dec thru mid-Jan, except the cold(er) pattern on the backend of next week's Pacific Jet extension likely lasts longer (per usual for El Nino) Aside from Nino climo, +IOD collapse favors a slower/stronger bout of Indian Ocean forcing late in Feb into Mar, helping to keep the gravy train going. Remember that unlike Dec-Jan, Indian Ocean convection in Feb-Mar actually signals cold in the eastern US.”

Low of 19 today in Wilmington, NC. First time in the teens there in two years - Jan 2022.

11 at GSO

Nikhil Trivedi: “In summary, I’d expect the Eastern US to be mild through Jan 29 with a brief storm window Jan 29-31. We’re mild again to start Feb, with snow chances returning as we near mid Feb. The magnitude of the storm threats rely on what the NAO ends up doing.”

Western Ridge

Could this be the most depressed this Forum has ever been?

Phenomenal post!

water temperatures

Not everyone in NC is snowless

It’s interesting that the DMV has snow cover, but most of central North Carolina was colder than the DC area this morning.

Disgusting

Brad P doesn’t think this is a case of the Appalachians blocking the cold. He says: “actually, no, this has nothing to do with the mountains. The flow is out of the Southwest, and it's colder and snowing to our southwest. It's just where the trough is located, and the moisture, so the mountains play no role in this.”

I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster.

At least Roanoke, Richmond, and mountainous Northwest North Carolina got some decent snow. Until we get a western ridge, I am not hopeful for the Triad. We need the Eastern trough to be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, not along the mountains.

I fairly understand why the cold delivery had failed so far, but I don’t get why the moisture delivery has also failed. GSO has only had a piddling .02 inches out of this entire system. Is it downsloping? But why did Central Virginia and Northern VA get more precip?

What even is

Thanks so much

Thanks for explaining

Could someone explain to me what it takes for Arctic fronts to enter the States in the East instead of the West. It’s clear that’s polar invasion that includes Portland is going to be underwhelming here.

We need the Arctic plunges to enter the US in the East, not the West or Plains to eliminate the need for cold to get over the formidable Appalachians.