WinstonSalemArlington

Models agree that the first half of January will be frigid

How far East?

From Van Denton WGHP:

BAMWx: This type of pattern flip coming for the new year will take some time for the cold to bleed in so be patient. The nice thing about a setup like this is we’re not getting flooded with Arctic air and shutting off the storm chances. Should be ideal for snow lovers too. Cold bleeds in…

Jumpin January

Eric Webb: Euro Ensemble has a CAD wedge for a week straight in NC & VA next week through the end of December. Yeah so much for that “torch” pattern. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869473367943999824?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

Rollercoaster

Eric Webb: Why have long range model forecasts been trending consistently colder the last week or so in the Eastern US? Imho, it has a lot to do with the Pacific Jet stream. Namely, the shift/trend in model forecasts away from a poleward shift to more of a jet extension in later forecasts. Contrary to some of the popular #S2S takes I’ve seen out there, pacific jet extensions don’t actually favor warmth in the eastern us. In fact, a pacific jet extension on its own actually favors colder temps in the eastern US. Where it often goes sideways is when this jet extension is coupled with El Niño and a poleward shift in the jet stream. The real driver of the milder look seen previously in model forecasts was actually more related the poleward shift in the pacific jet, which the models have trended away from. See Winters et al (2019)

288 hours is closer than you think

So, there’s a chance….

Tim Buckley: ! Our first week of December ranks as our second coldest start to the month since records began at PTI Airport in Greensboro 97 years ago. #ncwx

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 214 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2024 ...NEW RECORD LOWS YESTERDAY AT DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG... THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT DANVILLE, VIRGINIA WAS 16 DEGREES. THIS VALUE SETS A NEW RECORD LOW FOR DECEMBER 6. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18 DEGREES FROM 1974 AND 2000. RECORDS FOR DANVILLE DATE BACK TO 1916. ALSO, THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT LYNCHBURG, VIRGINIA WAS 13 DEGREES. THIS VALUE SETS A NEW RECORD LOW FOR DECEMBER 6. THE OLD RECORDS WAS 16 DEGREES FROM 1992 AND 2002. RECORDS FOR LYNCHBURG DATE BACK TO 1893.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 415 AM EST SAT DEC 07 2024 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES WAS SET AT FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 23 DEGREES SET IN 1987. $$

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 0416 PM EST SAT DEC 07 2024 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT N.MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES WAS TIED AT N.MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 20 DEGREES SET IN 1954.

It’s been a noteworthy early December cold wave

It’s really impressive to have a clear early December day with highs in the 30s.

This morning’s frigid low of 17 is now the coldest temperature reported in Greensboro since January 22.