MattPetrulli

Still forecasts a major at LF The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane strength at landfall.

https://x.com/MarkMeyerWx/status/1838381014676091068

Maybe windshield wiper back to the west a bit on 00z spaghettis?

CDO has warmed some and pressure has come up a bit in latest pass. Probably temporary, however.

Slight shift

First FFE of Debby in the Carolinas

Slowly but steadily getting more convection near the center. Still looks hollowed out to infinity but it's over water now so we'll see what happens. NHC has it getting to 50 knots again, I personally would be kinda surprised if that happens.

I like how detailed NWS Charleston is getting in their warnings. Very specific details for certain rivers and such * At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated light to moderate rain extending across much of the Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester and Beaufort Counties. As much as 6 to 13 inches of rain has fallen so far and additional 1 to 2 inches could fall through this evening. Flash flooding is occurring in parts of West Ashley, Downtown Charleston and the Oakbrook area in southern Dorchester County. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Summerville, Goose Creek, Hanahan, Walterboro, Saint George, Edisto Beach, Givhans Ferry State Park and Ladson. Water levels on Saw Mill Branch continue to rise. Dorchester County Emergency Management is strongly encouraging residents in low-lying or flood-prone areas to evacuate to a shelter. Water levels along Ireland Creek at Walterboro stopped rising, however water could still approach or flood some businesses along Ivanhoe Road. Heed any evacuation advice from local officials. Flash flooding is likely ongoing along Church Creek in West Ashley.

"The flags aren't even moving", it's almost like the main hazard that has been advertised this entire storm is rain and flooding lol

Nasty firehose getting setup in the Charleston Metro. Unfortunately, likely the start of catastrophic flooding reminiscent of Joaquin 2015, etc.

Not a significant difference, at least applicable to this scenario.

Running a fair bit east of forecast. May get over water sooner if this continues Yesterday's cone vs today's showing the east shift and forward motion being sped up.

2k posts of nothing but trolling and stupidity for years, I hope you get the help you need my brother.

Now recon support for a hurricane

Nevermind, we won't know because of cheapness of our government and tools breaking.

Pretty confident we got a hurricane now. Northern eyewall velocities continue to tick higher and higher with each scan, they're about to do a pass through it so we'll see for sure in a few minutes.

983.7 extr last pass

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 930 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen to 962 mb. The next forecast will be issued at the normally scheduled time at 11 PM EDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 930 PM AST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

158 knot unflagged SFMR

Wow. Blend supports 155 knot+

Yikes

I like 4/2's potential a lot. Potential is there for a substantial event.

Went outside, got a thin glaze of ice on the car. Probably will keep me home tomorrow. Pretty impressed with how widespread the freezing rain is.

All the METARs in the region are at 32 or lower. This makes me think this is a big batch of freezing rain. w