MattPetrulli
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Everything posted by MattPetrulli
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Now have Tropical Storm Ian according to best track or whatever that thingy is called 35 knt 1005 MB
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Thread for banter of future tropical storm/hurricane/major hurricane Ian
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Nice sting jet bro
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Almost like if you don't take the bait the bait disappears!
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East shift on 18z GEFS
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New cone is slightly west
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TD10 has been given the name Hermine. TD 9 will be Ian.
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Intense burst of convection too
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18z Spaghettis go west
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Important observation is almost all of those are significant hits, different from the decaying tropical storm the 12z GFS provided
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Something not talked about much, Havana and the Keys have a decent shot at sustaining a significant hurricane hit before moving towards main SW Florida, assuming a path further to the east is realized.
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Andrew
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That's gonna be a fairly significant Carolinas hit
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Slight adjustment west would be worse. Would push more surge into Ft Myers area which is extremely surge prone
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12z Euro basically follows the exact NHC cone
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FWIW HMON and HWRF which are on the left side of the guidance absolutely explodes TD9
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00z Euro is gonna be fun on social media tomorrow. I don't know if you can tell but that is not OTS btw
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Strangely quiet, gotta think the Canadian benchmark hurricane would be challenged here. Somewhat ignorant to it, but may be at or surpass the damage of Hurricane Juan.
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00z GFS is Cat 2/3 into Ft Myers area. Seeming to reach a SW Florida consensus
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Shouldn't take much more for a TD as @Superstorm93 just posted, seems like it's very close to being a TD if not already.
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Something tells me that it's not an Invest anymore
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Think even if it misses Florida to the east, may be able to provide a threat to OBX northward with building high pressure
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FWIW a decent bit of GEFS members into the Bay of Campeche
