MattPetrulli

Getting better agreement on track/intensity with 00z hurricane models

Yep, kinda similar to Joaquin and the 2015 South Carolina floods

What METAR placefile are you using?

Despite the southern eyewall opening on radar, VDM says its closed. Also, velocities continue to intensify on radar, Helene is still intensifying.

SE eyewall has new VHTs going up + eye warming rather rapidly.

Looking ever increasingly better, imo think we can get to 120-125 knots at LF. Still several hours left over water.

500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE... The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Disagree. We still got 8-ish hours until landfalls and it's already at 95-100 knots. I wouldn't call 115 knots unlikely.

FL reduction would support a cat 3 upgrade.

115 Knot FL last pass, 956.6 HPA

Eyewall and CDO continue to improve and looking real good now.

958.3 extra

Dual rotating VHTs on each side now

Satellite has been improving with VHTs firing in right quad along with CDO ballooning and cooling

It's subsidence from the VHTs

Latest VDM is closed eyewall. Off to the races now

Thought so too, but NHC is still using the catastrophic wind wording which is used for category 4+ only so I think it's just the forecast point.

Kinda getting Ida vibes. Ida kinda struggled/gradually intensified throughout the day before LF with dry air I believe (though this dry air is more significant I think) then exploded over like a 12 hour period. Granted, Ida was smaller than what Helene is/will be, thus exacerbating the rate of intensification. Also Helene has more time than what Ida did at this time.

First sign of meaningful intensification all afternoon. May finally be go time, and also while constructing a more proper eyewall, maybe it can construct a CDO.

81 knot FL on last pass. We got a hurricane more than likely.

78 knot FL would support a 65 knot even 70 knot upgrade.

Ah yes, the classic 979 MB tropical storm.

Quite the PRE event modeled on GFS for NC/TN/GA. Can't post the GIF but I feel like the flood threat so far inland is going under the radar no pun intended.

986 pass earlier probably just from a mesovort. Pressure came up a bit, but this is probably the beginning of core construction given the temperature spike present.