HillsdaleMIWeather

06Z NAM gets the ice even further south

The NAM gets the ice worryingly south again, into Indiana. Worried we might get caught with our pants down here

0Z GFS has an opposite to our current storm event: Starts as snow, changes to ice, ends as rain

FWIW it still is a good chunk south of its 12Z run

Honestly worried that if this minor south trend continues places around here could get caught in ice unexpectedly

Ice zone creeping back south on the NAM, hopefully not a last second trend

When I made this threads subtitle I didn't think this much rain

Really tough situation for IWX about the MI counties, could get nuclear ice or all rain

GFS pouring freezing rain at 54

12Z NAM looking more like the 0/6Z GFS so far

IWX pointing out that the NAM is bad for ice throughout their northern CWA, the just above ground temps are below freezing Have favored the cooler models for the shallow cold air Saturday that originally included just the GFS, but now the NAM is showing a very shallow layer of cold air just above the surface that will likely be below freezing for several hours. Believe the greatest winter weather impact if the surface temperatures are cold enough will be from freezing rain. NAM BUFKIT 00Z and 06Z runs showed several hours of freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night. After coordination with Chicago and Grand Rapids NWS offices have greatly increased ice amounts. Given the strong upper level system just reaching the Calif coast, concern that upper level sampling of this system may still be lacking, so confidence was not high enough to post a winter storm watch for ice. Otherwise, Sunday will be dry with highs in the 30s. Travel late Saturday and Saturday night may become hazardous depending on weather types and pavement temperatures.

I'd guess Friday, way too much uncertainty

Ice line is further south then 12Z. Literally going to be a thread the needle event with the changing models

This is one of those "unlikely but holy shit if it happened" runs Nearly 2 inches of ice in Southern Lower and Northern IN, with ice still falling

GRR, DTX and IWX's MI counties get blown up with ice on this run

GFS wrecks southern MI, heavy ice followed by heavy snow + wind would be mass power outages

That one 9in in November storm is feeling like it'll be the only big one. Knowing our luck, winter will only show up in like late Feburary and March again if at all

Honestly close to punting on this winter

Snow has been off and on all evening, real fun stuff starts overnight

Looks to be a much warmer than normal start to this year/decade, with rain. Rest of the month is less certain after that, will it be a complete torch or will we get some actual snow?

GFS finally has fantasy range storms back

RR Hope y'all like rain!

0Z GFS hinting at a system towards the end of the month