lakeeffectkid383

Not so fast. 18z 3k NAM skunks BUF big time. 0.2” even at BUF from the synoptic snow. Ouch! 12k NAM looks the same. Absolute crusher (not in a good way) for BUF verbatim.

Change over looks to be right on cue. 12z NAM to current radar lines up nicely. As mentioned the front is going to slow down and then even stall so while it seems right now like the cold air is rushing in and we’ll be changed over soon the cold push is slowing down. I think we flip between 9-11pm. I think it will be an advisory for us as a Warning would need to be 7” in 12 hr and I just don’t think there’s going to be enough moisture for that but I could be wrong. I like 3-6” for BUF from the Synoptic.

NWS has it around 9 here.

12z 3k NAM

Yes that’s the one! 06z 3k NAM looks awesome and still parked over BUF at hr 60. New BUF forecast.

You should do hourly updates on the hour so those who aren’t so lucky can log on and watch you report your current snowfall depth ect... lol JK. Seriously though if any area deserves to be jackpotted it’s WS and SB. I’ve never been so frustrated in my life when I lived in WS having the bands swing through so rapidly you could barely have enough time to go outside and get a video in it. The most maddening was the storm in January 19 when there was a SW flow with strong winds that split the band in two with one band Hammering OP/Hamburg just to the south and Amherst/Cheektowaga just to our north while we legit had sunshine peeking through the clouds. Like Steve said though on the rare occasion they do cash in they CASH IN! I think that area is where the convergence zone likes to set up with the WNW winds over the Niagara Peninsula and the shape of the Lake Erie shoreline.

Thanks Dave. You’ll get yours too in time. After the inevitable January thaw that comes and wipes all of our pack out bad then we get some nice NW flow and you to SYR get a foot or more of arctic fluff while we dodge flurries in between the rays of sunshine! Haha. Really bummed this has to be a feast or famine event for Upstate and all of us can’t cash in. I’ll happy take pictures from my place in Amherst but I’m expecting the bulk to be to my south. I’ll be happy if we can pull off 8” here between synoptic and lake effect.

No worries lol I was just saying cause I watched it live and it definitely wasn’t Todd. I think channel 7 has the best mets now. Andy Parker is decent, Aaron Mentkowski is fantastic, Autumn Lynandowski is also decent and I’m not sure if Mike Randall is there anymore but he was/is really good too. Minus the new girl who just graduated and posted the 18z RPM model has channel 7s official forecast tonight haha. Todd and Mike Cejka are good Mets for channel 4 and Baglini is tolerable. Channel 2 has Maria Genero, lmfao what a joke.

We’re living dangerous using the GFS for lake effect but damn it sure looks good. That’s just like your call from a couple days ago. 1’+ for all of Erie County with a bullseye of 2’ + right over your head. I’d take that scenario in heartbeat.

Lock it in !

GFS looks the same or even a bit better for lake effect. 18z vs 00z comparison @ 10:1

Fwiw Channel 4 changed their forecast. 6-12 inches Northtowns. 12-18” Southtowns.

Looks so weird to see those bands off Huron on a NW flow and BUF on a SW flow. I guess that’s where that convergence comes into play.

00z NAM. 12k 3k (only goes to 60 hours, still going strong right over BUF)

That’s cause it’s some young girl who seems like it’s her first week on her first job as a meteorologist. Just use your in house model run as your “forecast” and throw everything else out the window. Lol.

“The RPM model is our in-house real-time forecast model, and the lettersstands for Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. The output allows the display of the latest forecast information on our television graphics. Themodel uses the very successful Weather Research and Forecast model as its forecast engine, a collaborative effort between a host of government and academic agencies. The model is run every three hours out to a period of 51 hours, allowing frequent updates to our forecast products, most important in critical weather situations. Like any weather forecast model, it has its ups and downs, but overall it has been very helpful for our weather forecast efforts.” It uses the WRF as its engine which isn’t a terrible model. I often look at them in lake effect situations.

Still a possibility at this point the storm lands up further east and the winds do end up more W or even WNW.

That’s just one model, not saying it’s going to be wrong as you and Delta stated I think this ones gonna have some curveballs, but you could easily find models that show significantly more than that and I think using the RPM model (or any other singular model) as your official “forecast” for snow totals on air is a pretty poor look.

10:1 up close

Todd wasn’t working today I don’t think. He was calling for 8-14” County wide yesterday. Bagilini is working tonight and he definitley did call for 4-8” in the southtowns and 2-4” in the Northtowns as TS said. Really nitpicking at this point though. Still time for them to up it as the forecast evolves if necessary.

It’s definitely a hard forecast to make for the public because just a few mile shift can make such a huge difference especially in this scenario. My thing is just why show a model that’s targeting northern areas and overlay the lowest totals there? It just doesn’t look right to me. No doubt they have a tough job ahead the next 2 days.

Best part is their mesoscale models show the best Synoptic snow from the Southtowns to the north which is the exact opposite of where the they are showing the most falling lol.

That’s pretty dang close to the metro. With thermal troughing that thing could be right at KBUF.

So the 7-17” is including the 4” from the Synoptic storm, even though the lake effect snow Warning doesn’t start until noon?

It seems the Lake effect snow warning for Northern Erie is only for the lake effect since it doesn’t start until noon Friday. The synoptic will be long over by then so I’m unsure if the 7-17” is from the lake effect only.