lakeeffectkid383

First call. BUF - 1.5” ROC - 4.2” SYR - 6.4” ALB - 5.2” BGM - 11.7”

The lake is not freezing before that potential event. Tonight’s the last cold night then we’re in mid 30s to near 40 almost all week and even into the 40s by next weekend. There’s little to no ice now and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Maybe where water is the coldest and shallowest near Toledo develops some thin ice but won’t have any impact on lake effect potential.

Getting smoked with huge cotton balls puking all over the frozen landscape. Weird description but beautiful sight haha.

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Why not? Lake is wide open. We’ve had great events in February before. Feb 07 probably the best example. Think some places in the Boston Hills were close to 4 feet and we obviously know about the 100+ inches off Ontario. Give us some moisture and with 850s that cold it won’t matter if the lake is at 33f as long as there’s open water she’ll be firing away.

What else is new this season?

Pouring freezing rain and IP in Derby. Roads are a disaster.

Pouring rain in Hamburg.

Holy smokes precip that is moving into Chautauqua County is already IP/ZR. Not a good sign for those of us near BUF. May start as a straight mix.

I’m rooting for Brady now that he’s out of our division. I hate him a lot but he’s easily the GOAT so I’m rooting for him to get another one to basically give the patriots a big middle finger for letting him walk to another team. Incredible they’re the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Go Bucs!

Right on the line of the 100-110” and 110”-120”. So I’d call it about 110”. Big improvement over where I am now which according to this map I’m squarely in the less than 80” a year. Yes you are correct SE of Hamburg definitley averages more (Boston) but there’s almost no houses there and everything we put an offer on we were getting outbid because the market is so insane there.

About 85 if I had to guess. Haven’t kept records here and haven’t been here long enough to anyways. If KBUFs average is in the low 90s it’s definitley less here. Maybe even as low as 80 for an average here as I’m about 5 miles NW of KBUF. Should definitely be at least 25” a season more if not 30”-40” .

8 miles SW of BuffaloWeather. Just 2 miles from the Hamburg town line. the blue dot is where I’m located now for reference.

Just got the call that we got the house!!! Hopefully by the time we close on it winter will be over but if we close end of March/early April it’ll probably be a snowstorm with our luck! Looking forward to enjoying what BuffaloWeather enjoys instead of sitting 15 miles north staring off at the tall billowing gray clouds just to the south while I’m basking in the slightly warm glow of sunshine on an otherwise frigid day!

Looking like a relatively weak and minor system around these parts Tuesday. Maybe 2-4” if we’re lucky. Green grass at my house in Amherst. We went and looked at a house in Derby (just SW of Hamburg) this morning and closer to a foot of snow on the ground there, it’s a whole different world. Put in a very aggressive offer on it so we’ll see what happens, should know by tonight. If we do get it, its definitely a better location for snow than Amherst. Probably pretty darn close to what BuffaloWeather averages. I would be about 8 miles Southwest of him. Average is probably somewhere between 110-120” a year compared to 85-90” in Amherst.

Looks further south to me. Precip never makes it to NY/PA border. Looks weak and suppressed.

It’s awesome they just added a new camera on the 219 at Rice Rd (one of the best spots for snow). Right now there’s so much snow it looks like a snowmobile trail lmao. https://www.511ny.org/#:Alerts

That band is going beast mode right now. It sucks the trough is about to move over northern Lake Erie already. Got another 1-2 hours like this so those who are in it enjoy it! It looks pretty gnarly on the traffic cams from Silver Creek to Hamburg and the 219 in OP.

West Falls looks to be in a great spot tonight. How much did they get last night and this morning?

Thought your in Clarence lol?

Band will fizzle during the day with some drier air moving in but will refire this evening. I’m confident it will make it back to the distant southtowns of Hamburg/OP but I’m not sure it will make it any further north than that.

I’m at work in Hamburg Village. Looks like about 4” of new snow. Not nearly as much as I was expecting.

Because no models show that right now, not saying it can’t happen but RGEM was only model getting it into the Northtowns and that had since backed off. I’m not impressed at all. 4-8” in southtowns. 1-2” in the city and Northtowns, maybe 8-12” in the best spots in the Boston Hills/Chaut Ridge.

Not even an advisory or a watch though. I think that map is way overdone for WNY IMO.

HRRR is a horrible model. That thing was spitting out 6-10” of snow an hour before the event started the other day. We got freezing drizzle and rain all day and an inch of snow overnight. That’s not even close to the first time that model showed that happening either. Toss it right in the trash.