lakeeffectkid383

From the looks of it, it looks like the band may be at least temporarily setting up near IAG. No model had it that far north at all that’s for sure.

It’s gotta be tough to forecast right now for SB. Half the models show a snow hole half the models show it the bullseye. I personally think it’ll be closer to the bullseye than a snow hole but you never know living in the “transition zone”.

That’s SBS and my old stomping grounds lol. I’m on the edge of the 8-12 and 12-18 zone. I think they are going to bust hard on this one especially from the north side of the city out to Amherst. I’m fully expecting less than 4” total here and if I’m wrong I’ll be glad to admit it.

My point and click forecast is laughable at this point. 12-21” lmfao. I’ll be lucky to see a quarter of that.

Yeah this one fell apart as quickly as the Bills in the 2nd quarter of the Chiefs game.

I mean if they’re all showing the same thing maybe they’re on to something lol. I was half joking about it being the nail in the coffin. But when the BTV WRF shows the bands down that way like the rest of the mesoscale models it gives me a little more confidence that they may not all be out to lunch.

Well there’s the nail in the coffin. As Porky the Pig says, that’s all folks. On to the next event. Congrats BuffaloWeather. Lmao. Crazy stuff and good find. You just made my day by finding this!

Honestly 7s total snowfall amounts look pretty reasonable to me. Everything is still on the table but IMO this is a SB/WS/Lancaster special. I would call for 3-6” for me and you if I had to make a call right now. I think we’ll get into the band for a few hours here in there but the bands do look to oscillate from time to time and think we will only see them when the band is on its northern extent. Southern extent to me is Hamburg out to East Aurora.

That’s not really Spectrums forecast is it?!? LMFAO ! That looks like it was done on Microsoft Paint from Windows 98. if only the good ole BTV WRF was still around. It’s amounts were always way overdone but in my opinion it had the best placement of lake effect bands of any mesoscale model out there.

The HRRR is absolutely atrocious for lake effect. If that model were right I’d already be at over 100” on the season. It’s amounts and locations are so off it shouldn’t even be looked at.

3k NAM looks good. I’m right in the middle of that northern bullseye. It’s not a double band on the radar it’s just the good ole transition zone as the band settles further north and then moves quickly further south before quickly heading back north again at the end of the run. The band is still going strong at the end of the run so I’m assuming totals will be well over a foot by the time it’s all said and done.

It’s something that has to given credence at this still early juncture. There’s gotta be a reason why models are not overly bullish wether it is moisture or too high of wind speeds. At least we know it’s not a frozen lake. I feel like 6-12” is a good call right now for this event, can always adjust upwards if need be but I’m not seeing anything that’s making it look like it’ll be a blockbuster atm.

3k looked good and was ripping at hr 60.

Yep 4.8” total here. Almost triple KBUF total and that’s only 3-4 miles to my SE

Not too impressive here at all.

Still far too early to have any confidence in wind flow. As BuffaloWeather said we’re not even in the outer range of the high res mesoscale models. This could still set up from IAG and Lockport down to Springville or even Ellicottville at this point. I am not confident on where it will set up either. I’m much more confident wherever it does set up its gonna dump.

This has actually been a really nice last few wintry days. It has been so nice to have snow falling for the better part of the last 48 to 72 hours combined with the cold temperatures it is really felt like solid winter probably the longest it has all season. Like TS I have a little over 4 inches the last 2 days which is about 4 times as much as I expected here. That combined with the few inches of absolute paste we had from the snow/sleet mixture here last week and we have a nice little base on the ground. If it wasn’t for Friday/Saturdays little warm up and rain we could really build a nice pack going forward next week.

Feel for ya man. Lived through getting screwed many times in West Seneca while 5 miles north south had 20” plus and ripping while I was looking at sunshine and a foot if that.

0.1

Channel 7 is the only watchable station now. They definitely have the best Mets hands down. I do still enjoy watching Mike Cejka in the mornings on channel 4.

This has the makings of Feb 2007 all over it...

Isn’t a cold February rare for a Nina winter? I thought BuffaloWeather posted that things were trending more towards neutral Enso so that could be why. I thought a warmer than average February was nearly a lock based on everything I saw early in the season. Glad it’s not and it’s got the looks of a really good month upcoming both synoptically and lake effect although with the temps coming up by the end of next week it sure looks like Erie will begin icing over for sure at that point.

Go drive by route 5 there’s literally nothing more than a random ice chunk here and there.

Erie is not frozen and not going to freeze before then. Still at 33 degrees not even down to 32 yet. 99 percent ice free.

Came home from work in Hamburg where there was maybe half an inch of new snow if that. Home in Amherst looks about 2” new snow. Would go out and shovel but hurt my back at work today so I’m gonna be out of shoveling commission for a while.