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lakeeffectkid383

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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383

  1. lakeeffectkid383
    Very unimpressive here so far. As TS said flake size is super tiny and it’s really not coming down that hard at all. Staying patient as I know the good stuff isn’t supposed to move in till around 10 or so here.
  2. lakeeffectkid383
    Not concerned at all yet because we have light returns overhead but just wanted to note the snow that is falling is literally straight tiny needles literally looks like tiny ice shavings from a snow cone maker. Any reason why the flakes are like that? Not sure i remember ever seeing them so needle like.
  3. lakeeffectkid383
    Also not sure what model Mike Cejka was using in his newscast on channel 4 just now but it has almost 15” at BUF for this storm and he showed it running through Friday morning and it was nearly 27” at BUF! Two back to back 1 foot + synoptic storms in a week would instantly move this winter to a B+ with plenty of time left to make it an A.
  4. lakeeffectkid383
    Final Call BUF 15.2” ROC 16.1” SYR 8.6” (some mixing) ALB 3.4” (mostly mix) BGM 4.5” (mostly mix)
  5. lakeeffectkid383
    06z HRDPS
  6. lakeeffectkid383
    I thought rain was 1:1 ratio?
  7. lakeeffectkid383
    Gotta sniff the taint to get the goods, honestly I think your in a great spot not that you care what I think lol.
  8. lakeeffectkid383
    Fwiw I find the NAM is usually too far NW with these things compared to other guidance. Don’t be surprised to see other guidance not nearly as far NW. still think the bullseye will be 1-90 corridor from BUF to SYR. I wouldn’t be sweating it unless I was in BGM or ALB. I’d be shocked if 06z guidance didn’t tick back SE as they usually do once inside 24 hr.
  9. lakeeffectkid383
    Is it me or are the 06z and 18z usually wetter than the 00z and 12z Euro. Could just be in my head but seems every time you post them they follow this trend.
  10. lakeeffectkid383
    I thought it was just Matt being Matt too but then I zoomed in and now I understand why he’s panicking
  11. lakeeffectkid383
    Who cares? It’s gonna snow. That’s all that matters. If we get 9”, 11”, or 15” I’ll be stoked any way you slice it. This pattern is awesome!
  12. lakeeffectkid383
    3k NAM
  13. lakeeffectkid383
    Splitting hairs but should be 8-14” or 10-15” for N Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe counties in the warnings IMO. Oh well, I’m just happy to have a great warning event to track!
  14. lakeeffectkid383
    Wrong. Weak sauce 6-11” lmao. Not that I care what NWS says.
  15. lakeeffectkid383
    My calls, will do a final one tonight after the 00z suite. BUF - 13.3” ROC- 17.1” SYR - 14.4” (except 1.2” at Matt’s house) ALB - 5.3” (mix issues) BGM 6.8” (mix issues)
  16. lakeeffectkid383
    HRDPS QPF and snowfall at 10:1 looks like a I-90 special from BUF to SYR.
  17. lakeeffectkid383
    Yeah the new 3k NAM gets the mix up to BUF and ROC even briefly. I would temper expectations a tad with ratios. I still think 6-12” from BUF to SYR cooridor with less SE of there towards BGM and ALB. Think somewhere from IAG to ROC jackpots around 15” or so
  18. lakeeffectkid383
    How does that look compared to 18z? Looks absolutely beautiful from BUF to ROC to SYR corridor.
  19. lakeeffectkid383
    Not a flake here.
  20. lakeeffectkid383
    My early call would be 6-12” for the entire BUF CWA except 10-15” for far N Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne Counties with some lake enhancement.
  21. lakeeffectkid383
    WSW issued for all of BUF’s CWA for 9” +.
  22. lakeeffectkid383
    I could see 20:1, 30:1 ain’t happening though.
  23. lakeeffectkid383
    Hell it’s predicting 30:1 for BUF lmao. 21 inches on .7” QPF. Yeah I’ll take the under on that one, way under lol.
  24. lakeeffectkid383
    Pretty substantial cut back. About 25% from 00z. Maybe 6-12” is the right call. Even at 15:1 that’s about a foot at BUF and ROC.
  25. lakeeffectkid383
    Yeah the way Wolfie has been talking I thought he was doing about as bad as you Matt. Then he posted pics from Pulaski the other day where it looked like a mountain town in the Rockies with how much snow there was lmao! I’m kidding Wolfie haha. Hope everyone cashes in.
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