lakeeffectkid383
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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383
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I look at all the models. Best model for lake effect IMO is the RGEM, and when other guidance starts showing similar output regardless of the model it gives it more credence. Anything can happen but there’s no reason to ignore the trends which unfortunately for us don’t seem to be going in the right direction for a huge event. -
Updated map. Keeps on shrinking. now in the 8-12” zone here, barely.
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Idk it brings the band inland plenty until the coastal takes over and winds start to shift and it backs it out over the lake and slowly kills it off. Not saying it’s right but it definitely has the band inland before winds shift.
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Honestly It somewhat makes sense, not the amounts but could totally see as the coastal forms and moves up the coast it causes the winds to veer significantly. This so far is the only model to show this happening (only other model that goes out this far is the NAM atm) but I could see this scenario playing out. As I said earlier IMO this model has been the best at lake effect really so definitley gives a little pause to the huge amounts over the city or north towns.
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Yeah no way. Maybe they wait until after tonight’s 00z runs to pull the trigger on warnings. I mean sure somewhere in Erie County is gonna get warning amounts so issuing a warning is almost a sure thing but where would you put the bullseye right now if you had to make a call. I agree with your map earlier and think the bullseye will be around WS somewhere but man I could see it being Amherst/Williamsville or Hamburg/OP.
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I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a spread for a lake effect event that’s starting in 24-36 hours. You have the NAM 3k taking the band up to IAG meanwhile the RGEM barely gets the band up to my house and keeps it over the Boston Hills. I get it’s lake effect but holy cow. Literally no idea what’s going to happen but as BuffaloWeather said that’s the fun in lake effect!
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How are you still excited when that things showing a snow hole right over your head in the transition zone ? lol
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Gonna be a warning for 6-12” I think in most persistent bands. This ones just not it, too many factors working against it.
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That lake effect looks pretty far south too.
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I think it’ll make it further north than this for sure but this is the best lake effect model and it keeps shifting things south with each run.
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I think your in a great spot. I really think this may be a transition zone special. I think this band locks in just south of the airport and you’ll be just about in the bullseye from you over to Northern WS/S Cheektowaga/ S Lancaster. Still not sold on huge amounts but I could see you scoring 12”+
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I remember the exact map your talking about but I can’t seem to find it anywhere at all. This is a wind direction degree chart. 240 flow is more towards WSW and looks spot on to the direction the maps posted above show IMO.
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Channel 2 ,4, and 7 “in house” models are showing the band barely ever making it to Buffalo. Keeps it locked over the Southtowns the entire time from Me to at times grazing South Buffalo Steve. We know the bands always land up 5 miles or so north with these events when the lake is still so warm but it’s gonna be really close for north of the Airport I think.
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I’m not. Have you looked at model runs this morning? I can’t find one model that puts out more than 8-10” even with ratios anywhere. They’ve backed way off of their totals since yesterday and I’m pretty sure it has to do with that costal storm moving closer and disrupting the flow. To me this is gonna be a low end warning event with 8-12” MAX.
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New map including all of Thursday from BUF.
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To be fair the GFS and Rgem are the only ones that show the band up in the metro for a sustained period of time. I think it’s still too far out to be confident of anything right now. Another 24 hours from now we should have a better picture but I could see BUF getting 3” or 30” as it stands right now so still lots to figure out and we have the time to do it. Don’t think BUF pulls a watch until tomorrow morning after tonight’s model runs. Still 48-60 hours from the event start.
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Didn’t catch that, thanks! as TS said above to me to use the term SIGNIFICANT in all caps need to be 2 feet plus.
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8-12” , boo lol. Weak sauce.
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Long range NAM is as useful as the CFS at 786 hours out.
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Woke up to 1.6” of surprise fluff here this morning.
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Wtf is going on in this Bills game? The Bills need a dome and i don’t care what anyone else here says.
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Right under the bullseye south of BUF. Where do I sign ?
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Was supposed to be at the game today but as you saw in the other thread I have Covid :/
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Just in time for the game! Should be fun to watch. Hoping Allen can sling it through the white curtain!
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Lmao 40-50”?!?
