The Iceman

I'm honestly liking today better than yesterday. Full sunshine out there plus this caught my eye in the day 1 disco:

supercell composite building considerably in the last hour...

sun is out in Trenton. Should see several hours of warming. dew point already 68F. Temp is shooting up as well up to 77F up from 72F under the clouds.

Mesoscale discussion...

suns right on the doorstep it appears...

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow.

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

Couldn't have said it better. Having met Ray before at the Eastern conferences and reading his posts for 10+ years now, I have zero doubt that his measurement was legit. He's as huge a weenie as any but seriously one of the best amateur mets on the entire board(along with yourself). I trust his measurement much more than any john q public report that stuck a ruler in the grass at the end of the storm and called it a day. Now if this total was coming from a certain mountain in Tolland, CT, I'd be skeptical ...

Seems like SW NH was one of the big losers yesterday. My uncle said he finished with 8" in Swanzey. Congrats to all that hit the 30" mark!

My aunt and uncle's house has some elevation in the Keene area(Swanzey) and they too look like they are going to severely underperform on this one. As of 1 PM he said they have light snow with 2.5" on the day on grassy surfaces but on everything else it's basically white rain and has been since 8 or 9 this morning. They were forecasted 12-18". Radar doesn't look promising either for them to even come close to that. They are stuck in that screw zone sandwiched in between that band in VT that looks upslope enhanced and the death band in the SE part of NH through MA that doesn't look to get west enough to hit them. It actually looks like they'll be lucky to see 6"... This same thing happened back in the mid-late 2000's(I want to say 2005 or 2006) when I was up there for an event. I'll have to remember the exact date but it had to be a late December storm because I was up there for Christmas. Forecast was 14-18" with the possibility of 2ft but the same banding structure as pretty much today evolved and we got I think 7 or 8 inches on like 20 hours of light snow. Since it is mid march this time though, light snow won't really accumulate much during the day even if it is below freezing.

Uncle in Keene, NH says theres around 2" so far and that snow has picked up in intensity in the last hour or so. Weenie band setting up reminds me of the one that ripped through SEPA and CNJ last week. Had thundersnow for 3+ hours... Hope everyone that gets nailed by it enjoys and those not in it, take the road trip if you're close enough because you won't regret it

Mt holly has been great this year and even if they don't nail the forecast in the point and click, they almost always mention the chance of their forecast being wrong and give a terrific explanation of why it could happen in the AFD. Really they are my favorite forecasters by far and have a great track record of not only forecasting but educating the general public as well. I have learned so much from them over the years and it's such a shame that the guys don't post over here much anymore. Definitely miss their input.

Receiving 5.5" is significantly different preparation than a coating to and inch which is what he forecasted 24 hours out for us. And preperation regarding plowing and number of snow removal personnel for a 1 to 3 event (which he changed us to 6 hours before the event I may add) is significantly different than a 3 to 6 event for this area. It was a pretty big bust around here. I went out to a local bar last night and everyone I talked to brought up how wrong the weather people were about this storm and how no one was prepared for it. Just because he posts here doesn't mean we all have to suck on his nuts.

Yeah I was in his 1-3 zone that was coating to an inch yesterday afternoon and got 5.5". I really respect Glenn but he did not do well at all in extreme se pa and central jersey.

DTs final call map was completely and utterly wrong in this area. Pretty sure any of us could of done better. He's horrible forecasting for this area. He should stick to South Virginia and forecasting their annual 2 inch storms with the rare 6 inches every 10 years because every time he forecasts here he busts horribly.

I completely get it with him. Boring forecasts don't sell. By hyping everything up, it gets him page views and subscriptions.

i have doubts anyone sees 2 inches let alone 3. JB is clickbait nothing more.

Yeah Euro has been awful this year. considering no other guidance is showing this, i'd say it has a very low chance of occurring. seems like another thread the needle type set up and those rarely work in january let alone march...

Agreed, sub forums definitely fractured discussion on this board. I miss pre sub forum days when everyone just had their own observation discussion threads, and one giant thread on a certain threat. There was so much good info and good posters that I miss now from sub forums. It's a shame some people were too immature and backyard oriented to handle it.

we may be dead but at least the few posts in here are about weather. meanwhile the nyc subforum has turned into the sports forum.

oh man I'm 100% down for bringing back the weenie tags. I have nostalgia just thinking about it.