The Iceman

I'm rooting for no snow november. Feels like it's always a death kneel for winter lol

I don't think the FFW is warranted at all. Almost all of the models show the main batch of convection staying to the south. Looks like mainly just some showers/brief thunderstorms in the FFW area. I expect it to be dropped later this afternoon.

picked up 3.15" of rain yesterday.

Wednesday looks to be the best chance for thunderstorms/flash flooding. After that it depends on whether the front stalls over or south of the area. Tough to predict this time of the year. GFS looks very unsettled the next week while the EURO is mostly clear after Wednesday.

great post Paul, very very interesting stuff.

Picked up the highest wind gust this summer so far, 70 MPH. Picked up 1.25" of rain. Lost power for the 5th time this summer... it's to the point where any time there is a rumble of thunder, I assume we're losing power.

SVR Watch coming

93F in Trenton.

Sun is out in full force here in Trenton. Temp up to 88 F. Projected high was 91, won't be surprised if it creeps a few degrees above that. Storms should have plenty of fuel for later.

After losing power 3 times this summer from storms(peco's infrastructure is a joke), I am going to hope that I'm missed by the storms today. No power with this heat sounds like a nightmare.

Not sure we'll hit 100 with the 1" or more of rain falling in the weds-thurs period. Still will be too wet. Still highs in the upper 90's with dews in the mid 70s will not be fun. Mt Holly indicating heat indices of 110+ are possible next weekend.

2.25" yesterday, had some minor street flooding and big time ponding but overall the flash flooding here wasn't too bad. Driving though it was still not fun at all.

3 km NAM brings a mean squall line from N to S.

3.1" of rain since Monday here. 1.8" yesterday. The HRRR has been consistent this morning about bringing another round of 1-2" rains across SE PA. This would certainly cause issues. The good thing is we shouldn't have as slow of storm motions as yesterday but training definitely could be a concern. Even a quick inch is going to cause issues with all the rain we've had this week.

SPC has the area in a slight risk today with the mention of the possibility for a few tornado's. ML cape is already in the 500-1000 range and that is despite the cloud cover. RAP and HRRR have ml cape getting into the 1500-2000 range which is pretty potent. Dew points already around 70F across the area. Today could end up surprising severe wise, though the main threat still looks to be heavy rain with PWAT's around 2".

picked up .95" yesterday. 3.5" over the last 3 days.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 9 pm...spc specifically mentions us as an area that may see a tornado or two

So no tornado watch today but severe thunderstorm watch is coming our way soon

another 5% tornado day. looks like the morning fog/clouds are burning off here in Trenton so should get plenty of heating today. When's the last time we had 3 tornado watches in 3 straight days? Looks very possible that could occur. 3 km NAM looks nasty again this evening: RGEM sees a convection complex rolling through around the same time frame too The HRRR looks a little similar to yesterday, scattered storms out ahead of the main line with the potential for a few rounds of storms. Today could end up being a surprise day.

Didn't see a tornado but there was clear rotation in the clouds down in levittown. Hell of a storm.

cell in bucks country looks straight out of the plains. couplet tightening up in the last few frames...won't be surprised if this produces. I'm bummed i'm stuck in work, this would be a prime chase for me.

overcast now, temp down to 81F. DP at 68

likely in the 4 pm - 7 pm range.

fwiw the HRRR crushes us later on 3k NAM with a big squall line too

damn I thought my 3 flashes and a rumble was getting shafted...