The Iceman

Nope. Winter storm warning for a trace of snow, not even a dusting. Not sure what they are waiting for to drop them. It's pretty clear this one is over.

Will probably verify well in the northern half. From Trenton south though, yikes.

yikes, mt. holly may want to start cancelling those winter storm warnings for bucks/lehigh valley. Ain't even going to be close... I'll be happy if I get an inch. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain and drizzle is expected to change to snow this morning. The snow will become heavy at times into this evening. Snowfall amounts are forecast to vary across the area, but they should generally be in the 5 to 8 inch range.

My call is 0-1" south and east of the city, 1-3" for the city and immediate burbs, 3-6" for Lehigh valley and N/W bucks/Montgomery, and 6-10 for the poconos. I don't see the winter storm warnings verifying in lower bucks/Mercer/Montgomery. Just my 2 cents.

Wow mt Holly winter storm warning for lower bucks 4 to 6". I wasn't expecting anything tbh. Getting cautiously optimistic of seeing something measurable now.. ...LONG DURATION WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY... NJZ009-010-015-PAZ105-106-021100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191203T0600Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0007.191202T1100Z-191203T0900Z/ Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, Trenton, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 411 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon, Somerset and Mercer counties. In Pennsylvania, Upper Bucks and Lower Bucks counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lingering rain overnight will mix with snow or sleet and change over to all snow around daybreak Monday morning. Snow will last for several hours on Monday before dissipating into the late evening hours. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected with localized higher amounts possible under heavier bands that develop. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Still looking good to at least get a little bit of frozen stuff with the WAA.

GFS all alone makes me weary about this threat right now. Still good trends today across all models. Think the most likely solution though is a brief period of WAA snow followed by a cold rain at this time save for Northern areas. Marginal events in early december just don't usually work out in our favor. Give me this pattern from mid dec- Feb though and we'll score more often than not.

I mean they could be right eventually, but they have really been awful so far. They had November being a torch back in October and it's verified pretty much completely opposite. That said it looks like the ensembles are in flux past day 10 on what to do with the NAO and AO. Some bring both back to negative after a flight bump towards neutral while others have it going positive. Big spread. I think you have right idea of focusing on inside 10 days and right now things are continuing to look well in that range. We've seen the last few years that pattern changes advertised in the day 10-15 range get pushed back again and again. Would be nice for that to occur with a good pattern for once.

First snow flurries of the year! Temp down to 35F.

Temp has fallen from 53 at 8 am to now 38F with light rain. Hoping we can see some flurries.

Great write up Ralph, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Overall thinking the same right now, average winter across the board. Some nickle and dime front enders, and maybe 1-2 SECS. Our average down here is only like 24 inches so it doesn't take many hits to get to that. Last year was awful and we made it to 17 inches. I think the key player is the AO this winter. If we get that to be negative the majority of the time we will do ok. We may not hit the big one but we should get several 3-6 inch events at least.

Dr. No strikes again. Cuts up SE PA so we get nada. I'm leaning that way as well. Think the GFS is OTL. Still with how progressive the flow is and the pieces in play not even sampled yet don't think anything is set in stone.

GFS says game on lol I think the coastal hugger or even possibly inland is the favored solution atm. I don't see it being as weak as depicted on the GFS.

I think worst in my lifetime was the 97-98 super nino. Only 2.5 inches. Now that is a ratter. I think get around average snowfall this year. I'm thinking active storm pattern but we break lucky once or twice. Throw in a couple front end events and most of us will hit average pretty easily with these big juiced up systems.

Go figure. So we have everything from apps runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. I don't think any of the models have a clue right now with the drastic changes run to run on many of them.

Euro only shifted about 250 miles west from 00z lol great consistency. I don't think any solution is set in stone yet. Models clearly don't have a good read on it right now. Let's wait until we are inside 4 days before making definitive statements on the storm.

12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november.

A bit OT but does anyone else miss the long duration events of the past? Feels like forever since we've had one. The fast movers are fun especially when you get insane rates but I love the 24 hour+ events like PD 2003. Hope we get some blocking during this winter so we can see another, it's been since 2010 since we have gotten one of those I believe.

I think we have our first real threat of the season! Don't enjoy seeing a perfect scenario like the 6z gfs 7 days out though lol

I don't know about universal but the long range was showing that this cold spell would be short lived and we'd rebound to above normal after a few days. Now it looks like cold shot moderating to near normal then another cold shot and repeat. At least as of right now.

First snowstorm that I really remember. I was too young for the 93 blizzard to have any memories but I still to this day remember how long it snowed, the snow being taller than me in spots, and the giant pile of snow at the end of my street(we lived on a dead end) that we could sled down because it was so tall. It's the storm that really helped form my love of weather as a kid.

Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium range on this mornings GFS. Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though.

Neither am I, save for western areas. Line should be falling apart as it enters the 95 corridor. Lancaster/York, maybe West Chester counties could see some interesting weather if those gusts mix down with convection. Don't see this being a big deal for most of the CWA though.

Finished at 1.5" of rain. Nice little storm, winds are roaring this morning.

But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx