The Iceman
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Everything posted by The Iceman
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Go figure. So we have everything from apps runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. I don't think any of the models have a clue right now with the drastic changes run to run on many of them.
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Euro only shifted about 250 miles west from 00z lol great consistency. I don't think any solution is set in stone yet. Models clearly don't have a good read on it right now. Let's wait until we are inside 4 days before making definitive statements on the storm.
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12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november.
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A bit OT but does anyone else miss the long duration events of the past? Feels like forever since we've had one. The fast movers are fun especially when you get insane rates but I love the 24 hour+ events like PD 2003. Hope we get some blocking during this winter so we can see another, it's been since 2010 since we have gotten one of those I believe.
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I think we have our first real threat of the season! Don't enjoy seeing a perfect scenario like the 6z gfs 7 days out though lol
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I don't know about universal but the long range was showing that this cold spell would be short lived and we'd rebound to above normal after a few days. Now it looks like cold shot moderating to near normal then another cold shot and repeat. At least as of right now.
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First snowstorm that I really remember. I was too young for the 93 blizzard to have any memories but I still to this day remember how long it snowed, the snow being taller than me in spots, and the giant pile of snow at the end of my street(we lived on a dead end) that we could sled down because it was so tall. It's the storm that really helped form my love of weather as a kid.
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Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium range on this mornings GFS. Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though.
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Neither am I, save for western areas. Line should be falling apart as it enters the 95 corridor. Lancaster/York, maybe West Chester counties could see some interesting weather if those gusts mix down with convection. Don't see this being a big deal for most of the CWA though.
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Finished at 1.5" of rain. Nice little storm, winds are roaring this morning.
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But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx
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Good news, it's gone on the 6z run lol I don't think we'll see any snow in late october, the depth of the cold 95% won't be strong enough to hold in place. I do like the look at the end of the month and I hope the trend of late of patterns locking in holds up here.
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GFS has shown some big time cold coming into the end of the month. First freeze in late october would make for a chilly halloween. PS let's get this look in mid winter plz.
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First of hopefully many coastal storms tomorrow. Looks like 1-2" of rain for most of the area and winds 25-30 MPH with gusts of 40. I really enjoy these fall coastals and I feel like it's a good sign for winter.
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Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.
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Looks like the heat has passed us. These next 2 weeks should be seasonable.
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Save for Thursday, which should be fairly light qpf, it looks like you'll get your wish. Ridge builds in for next weekend and beyond. October may be a very dry month. Hope this trend doesn't carry into winter or it could be a boring one.
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Looking like some record highs may fall on Wednesday. Temps in the low 90s for the 95 corridor pretty much breaks a record at every station.
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Looks like a disorganized mess this morning imo -
made it all the way down to 48F last night. feels like fall outside. we're in for quite a boring pattern these next 2 weeks.
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Picked up 1.35" of rain yesterday.
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btw did anyone catch the 00z euro. Long way's away but damn wouldn't this be something?
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First half of the month has been pretty dry here. Only .3" of rain this month. Next week looks dry as a ridge builds in across the east. After the fairly wet summer, it looks like a pattern change has set in. Won't be surprised if we finish well below normal barring a tropical system moving in.
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.51" of rain yesterday. Had 4.7" in August total although half of that fell in one day. 2nd half of the month was pretty dry, only .8" from 8/16 - 8/31.
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Semptember looks to start mainly dry and boring here. No big synoptic set ups in the next 10 days.
