The Iceman

We are now inside 5 days on this threat and the global are in agreement that some kind of winter event will effect the region this weekend. The gfs hangs on to the primary way too long imo and as a result the area turns to rain but I think with the Arctic air nearby, this is one that has all the makings of a major sleet/ice storm. Here's the 12z cmc. And there is also likely a decent 2-4" thump of snow before the changeover. The ICON also is showing a significant event for 95 n and W. Overall with the snowpack and Arctic air along with the banana high in canada, this one has major cad potential. Discuss here

Definitely a good tick north on wave 1, we get another 24 hours of those and we are sitting pretty. unfortunately another tick south on wave 2. Looking like a one wave event now but we definitely take.

Is 2/14/06 still showing up in the cips analogs for this weekend? Would be crazy to see another massive sleet storm 15 years later. The set up looks very icy and CAD will probably be severely underforecasted. Even if the low amplifies to our sw, I still think we'd see significant icing before tapering to light rain.

I still think this will be 3-6" region wide Wednesday night into thursday when all is said and done. Wave 2 may be another 1-3/2-4 type deal, not as confident that comes north enough. I'll be surprised if wave 1 is a complete fail here though, I think at the very least it will be a 1-3" refresher.

Coating to an inch possible. Nothing major though.

Still think this will end up as a 3-6" storm for the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

What an evil, evil model. First the aforementioned No Hope-well dry slot, and second it is jackpotting VA/DC in the mid range again. Wonder how it'll play out for them I still like 3-6" region wide Wednesday night.

Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January.

Rgem for tonight into tomorrow am. N and W burbs may cash in on 1-3". Nam is much further north and gets warm air further north... May be too warm though imo will be interesting to see if we can get a nice little surprise again.

12z Rgem and nam are both 4-6" of powder region wide with wave 1 Wednesday night. We take.

Coldest morning of the winter in my neck of the woods too. Made it all the way down to 10F.

Doesn't quite get it done but oh is it so close! Epic potential, maybe best of the season.

3 km nam too. Seems like n of the turnpike 1-3" deal. Keeps trending colder though as we get closer and with fresh snowpack, could trend to a nice primer before the main show Weds-Thurs.

It's in clown range, but the HRRR drops 1-3" Monday night into Tuesday from Philly N.

Anyone think Tues could trend enough to get some light snow, coating - 2"? Poor low track but thermals are really close especially nw of 95.

UHI just may be too much to overcome anymore in these borderline situations. Looks like there were similar gradients in dc and balt.

Watch your head if you're walking under any trees. I got domed while shoveling

@Ralph Wiggum how did you make out? My buddy in warminster says he had between 8-9". Little bit better than 1-3"

Agreed, we have 3 - 4 threats the next 10 days. Maybe a brief relaxation period after your storm, then we reload for another round late month into March. I'll be surprised if anyone isnt't well above normal by the end of the season now. Things look about as close to perfect around here as it gets the next 10 days.

5.5" in Lower Makefield according to my brother 4" in Levittown according to my father

Tapering off to light now. I am going to call it at 7.5" about 2 miles N of Hopewell here in the Sourlands! Elevation definitely paid off as we never started as rain and temps reached a high of 33. Now down to 29F. Up to 26" on the season, which I believe is right around normal here for the entire season. Everything from here on out is gravy!

7" in Hopewell. Expectations = smashed.

Snow on snow on snow on snow on snow. You have to think one of those fails but still even if we bat .500, this is going to be a memorable stretch.

4.5" @ 1030 in Hopewell.. would guess closer to 5 now but haven't been out to check for sure. My brother in lower makefield just texted me he hit 3" still snowing moderately.

So glad that I built my snow board yesterday. Happy to officially report 4" at 10 am in Hopewell. Still heavy snow. I reckon we have at least another hour, maybe two of the heavy stuff. Great little storm!