The Iceman

I got no accumulation this morning. Just a brief period of light snow/flurries. Piling up the Trace's so far this winter.

I mean they could be right eventually, but they have really been awful so far. They had November being a torch back in October and it's verified pretty much completely opposite. That said it looks like the ensembles are in flux past day 10 on what to do with the NAO and AO. Some bring both back to negative after a flight bump towards neutral while others have it going positive. Big spread. I think you have right idea of focusing on inside 10 days and right now things are continuing to look well in that range. We've seen the last few years that pattern changes advertised in the day 10-15 range get pushed back again and again. Would be nice for that to occur with a good pattern for once.

First snow flurries of the year! Temp down to 35F.

Temp has fallen from 53 at 8 am to now 38F with light rain. Hoping we can see some flurries.

Dr. No strikes again. Cuts up SE PA so we get nada. I'm leaning that way as well. Think the GFS is OTL. Still with how progressive the flow is and the pieces in play not even sampled yet don't think anything is set in stone.

GFS says game on lol I think the coastal hugger or even possibly inland is the favored solution atm. I don't see it being as weak as depicted on the GFS.

I think worst in my lifetime was the 97-98 super nino. Only 2.5 inches. Now that is a ratter. I think get around average snowfall this year. I'm thinking active storm pattern but we break lucky once or twice. Throw in a couple front end events and most of us will hit average pretty easily with these big juiced up systems.

Go figure. So we have everything from apps runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. I don't think any of the models have a clue right now with the drastic changes run to run on many of them.

Euro only shifted about 250 miles west from 00z lol great consistency. I don't think any solution is set in stone yet. Models clearly don't have a good read on it right now. Let's wait until we are inside 4 days before making definitive statements on the storm.

12z GFS is a bit warmer and weaker with the low so the 95 corridor starts as rain and has a solid period of mixed precipitation but still has a long duration winter event. Snow totals aren't as robust but it's good to see it have some consistency. Now we hope for the Euro to climb back aboard at 12z. The 00z euro still brought 1-2 inches to us despite it being well east of the GFS. I'd take that in a heartbeat for mid november.

A bit OT but does anyone else miss the long duration events of the past? Feels like forever since we've had one. The fast movers are fun especially when you get insane rates but I love the 24 hour+ events like PD 2003. Hope we get some blocking during this winter so we can see another, it's been since 2010 since we have gotten one of those I believe.

I think we have our first real threat of the season! Don't enjoy seeing a perfect scenario like the 6z gfs 7 days out though lol

I don't know about universal but the long range was showing that this cold spell would be short lived and we'd rebound to above normal after a few days. Now it looks like cold shot moderating to near normal then another cold shot and repeat. At least as of right now.

Bottomed out at 30F this morning. Looking ahead there was this in the medium range on this mornings GFS. Not sure we want snow in November though after last year. Pattern these first 2 weeks of November is looking pretty cold, would love to see this in December and January though.

Neither am I, save for western areas. Line should be falling apart as it enters the 95 corridor. Lancaster/York, maybe West Chester counties could see some interesting weather if those gusts mix down with convection. Don't see this being a big deal for most of the CWA though.

Finished at 1.5" of rain. Nice little storm, winds are roaring this morning.

But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx

Good news, it's gone on the 6z run lol I don't think we'll see any snow in late october, the depth of the cold 95% won't be strong enough to hold in place. I do like the look at the end of the month and I hope the trend of late of patterns locking in holds up here.

GFS has shown some big time cold coming into the end of the month. First freeze in late october would make for a chilly halloween. PS let's get this look in mid winter plz.

First of hopefully many coastal storms tomorrow. Looks like 1-2" of rain for most of the area and winds 25-30 MPH with gusts of 40. I really enjoy these fall coastals and I feel like it's a good sign for winter.

Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.

Looks like the heat has passed us. These next 2 weeks should be seasonable.

Save for Thursday, which should be fairly light qpf, it looks like you'll get your wish. Ridge builds in for next weekend and beyond. October may be a very dry month. Hope this trend doesn't carry into winter or it could be a boring one.

Looking like some record highs may fall on Wednesday. Temps in the low 90s for the 95 corridor pretty much breaks a record at every station.

made it all the way down to 48F last night. feels like fall outside. we're in for quite a boring pattern these next 2 weeks.