The Iceman

18z NAM brings a little more snow than 12z especially N and W. However it's precipitation reflection at even hour 1 is currently way off compared to what's actually occurring. Like it's not even close.

Keeping an eye on what I'm already dubbing The Iceman's Birthday Storm. Fun fact, in the 28(about to be 29) years I've been alive, it has never snowed on Dec. 17th > 1inch in my backyard. Can this year break the streak? 12z Euro gives us a really nice thump to ice to rain back to snow which would be a good hit for this time of the year. We really aren't going to get a good read on this storm until this weekend because this weekend's storm sets the table for this event. Expect a bunch of changes in the coming days. Definitely best looking threat we've had this year though.

You know what is matching up well to the current radar? The RGEM

I BELIEVE!

c-2" seems reasonable for most of the area. Though I'd expect most accumulations to be in the coating variety.

Just saw this haha but I'm really loving the team this year as well. We are dominating possession most games and are winning despite many of our vets being snakebitten scoring wise. I also think bringing up Frost and Farabee was a great move. They make their share of mistakes but I think they've been improving every game even if the scoring isn't quite there yet. I can see frost being a 30+ goal scorer eventually with his wicked wrist shot and Farabee reminds me of the winger version of Coots when he was that age with his smart 2 way play. Hart is finally playing consistent and has really made himself the clear #1 this past month. The defense is the best we've had in years, the Niskenan trade was an absolute steal. Him and Provorov are a legit first pair which is something we have lacked in years past. As long as Hagg stays away from the line up and we don't do something stupid like trade Ghost, the defense should continue to be solid and only improve as the year goes on as guys like Sanheim and Myers gain even more experience. I really like offensively that we are getting scoring all up and down the line up. No one is putting up big numbers(save for TK) but the depth scoring is there to balance it out. And all of this is in spite of playing in an entirely new system from years past. I still think they haven't adjusted fully to it but once they do, watch out. Overall this team really reminds me of the Blues last year with their depth and if Hart continues his strong play and gives us the ability to steal games with his goaltending, we could be serious contenders this spring.

Yeah the models in general are only good for showing there is potential for a synoptic event in that time frame. Relying on details is futile since there are usually changes in events that are in the day 4-7 range that can make significant changes to the outcome of the next storm. Especially with how fast the flow is right now due to no blocking. I don't trust the models at all past day 4- 5 right now since small errors in timing can have big consequences for an event. Even in the day 4-5 range, we've already seen some drastic changes this season. Just look at this past Monday's storm,; the models were changing with every run right up to the storm beginning, and they were pretty significant changes.

Imagine if this comes to fruition lol

Going forward, while the pattern doesn't look hostile and all out torchy, it still looks like the favored storm track is going to be west. Good to see plenty of cold air around though, and the calls for an above normal December look to be in serious trouble. +NAO showing no signs of breaking(except maybe briefly in the day 10 range) but neither does the -EPO/+PNA. Could see some battleground events where N and W does well and the coastal plain changes over unless we get a really well timed event where everyone can do well. I'm pretty optimistic that we can get at least 1 measurable event this month with all of the cold air around even if it is a changeover event. I'll take this pattern over one that has zero chance to produce but hopefully going forward we get a pattern more conducive to all snow events.

I got no accumulation this morning. Just a brief period of light snow/flurries. Piling up the Trace's so far this winter.

After hours of nothing we now have light rain with some flakes mixed in. This downgrade to winter weather advisory isn't even going to verify.

Nope. Winter storm warning for a trace of snow, not even a dusting. Not sure what they are waiting for to drop them. It's pretty clear this one is over.

Will probably verify well in the northern half. From Trenton south though, yikes.

yikes, mt. holly may want to start cancelling those winter storm warnings for bucks/lehigh valley. Ain't even going to be close... I'll be happy if I get an inch. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain and drizzle is expected to change to snow this morning. The snow will become heavy at times into this evening. Snowfall amounts are forecast to vary across the area, but they should generally be in the 5 to 8 inch range.

My call is 0-1" south and east of the city, 1-3" for the city and immediate burbs, 3-6" for Lehigh valley and N/W bucks/Montgomery, and 6-10 for the poconos. I don't see the winter storm warnings verifying in lower bucks/Mercer/Montgomery. Just my 2 cents.

Wow mt Holly winter storm warning for lower bucks 4 to 6". I wasn't expecting anything tbh. Getting cautiously optimistic of seeing something measurable now.. ...LONG DURATION WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY... NJZ009-010-015-PAZ105-106-021100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191203T0600Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0007.191202T1100Z-191203T0900Z/ Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, Trenton, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 411 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon, Somerset and Mercer counties. In Pennsylvania, Upper Bucks and Lower Bucks counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lingering rain overnight will mix with snow or sleet and change over to all snow around daybreak Monday morning. Snow will last for several hours on Monday before dissipating into the late evening hours. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected with localized higher amounts possible under heavier bands that develop. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Still looking good to at least get a little bit of frozen stuff with the WAA.

GFS all alone makes me weary about this threat right now. Still good trends today across all models. Think the most likely solution though is a brief period of WAA snow followed by a cold rain at this time save for Northern areas. Marginal events in early december just don't usually work out in our favor. Give me this pattern from mid dec- Feb though and we'll score more often than not.

I mean they could be right eventually, but they have really been awful so far. They had November being a torch back in October and it's verified pretty much completely opposite. That said it looks like the ensembles are in flux past day 10 on what to do with the NAO and AO. Some bring both back to negative after a flight bump towards neutral while others have it going positive. Big spread. I think you have right idea of focusing on inside 10 days and right now things are continuing to look well in that range. We've seen the last few years that pattern changes advertised in the day 10-15 range get pushed back again and again. Would be nice for that to occur with a good pattern for once.

First snow flurries of the year! Temp down to 35F.

Temp has fallen from 53 at 8 am to now 38F with light rain. Hoping we can see some flurries.

Great write up Ralph, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Overall thinking the same right now, average winter across the board. Some nickle and dime front enders, and maybe 1-2 SECS. Our average down here is only like 24 inches so it doesn't take many hits to get to that. Last year was awful and we made it to 17 inches. I think the key player is the AO this winter. If we get that to be negative the majority of the time we will do ok. We may not hit the big one but we should get several 3-6 inch events at least.

Dr. No strikes again. Cuts up SE PA so we get nada. I'm leaning that way as well. Think the GFS is OTL. Still with how progressive the flow is and the pieces in play not even sampled yet don't think anything is set in stone.

GFS says game on lol I think the coastal hugger or even possibly inland is the favored solution atm. I don't see it being as weak as depicted on the GFS.

I think worst in my lifetime was the 97-98 super nino. Only 2.5 inches. Now that is a ratter. I think get around average snowfall this year. I'm thinking active storm pattern but we break lucky once or twice. Throw in a couple front end events and most of us will hit average pretty easily with these big juiced up systems.