The Iceman

If we get a look like this: That results in this: I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility.

GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says.

NAM actually is a decent event for N and W of 95. Pretty much all frozen. Even 95 itself is mostly frozen for most of the storm and only ends as 33-34 degree light rain. Nothing spectacular total wise due to all of the sleet but it would at least be wintry. Something Mt Holly brought up in the AFD is the fact that the storm's later arrival means that Friday night now will be mostly cloud free and could have good radiational cooling conditions. Should help to bottom out temps across the area. Can't hurt. Edit: The ICON is more amped and further NW than the NAM but still has a similar temp profile. It's basically a sleet fest for 75% of the storm ending as a 33-34F light rain for 95. N and W of 95 it's pretty much frozen the entire storm. By the time it gets above freezing, the precip is basically out of here.

6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go.

Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo.

Mt Holly's early thoughts: I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week!

Next weekend has the wiggum rule going for it. I think it's looking like a solid thump to ice to light rain/drizzle scenario. Finally a legit winter threat.

My car thermometer read 71 at 2 pm. Was in langhorne pa. Are other areas breaking 70 in the area or is my car thermometer just running hot?

wow some area's may make a run at 70F this weekend particularly sunday if the Euro/CMC are correct. Especially SNJ/DE but even up towards philly and the immediate burbs. Looks like those places are forecasted to be in the 67-68F range already. Pretty impressive considering there will be cloud cover.

Yeah there are encouraging signs across the ensembles, however there is still a lot of variability between members so I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern change gets pushed back(especially if we don't get a -NAO to beat back the SE ridge). Still at least we have the 18-20th time period to watch based on the Wiggum Rule ™ alone..

Had mostly rain which tapered to a hour or two of white rain mostly light in nature. Looks like it's just about out of here. 0.0" accumulation. The NAM was it's usual out to lunch self. Glad the writing was on the wall with some advance so not really a disappointment.

It's not just the HRRR. It's basically every model except the NAM and a few meso's that have BL issues the majority of the storm for 95 now.

Yep looking like a non event for most now. Paul in west chester and Kamu are in a decent spot though, they'll probably snag an inch or two. Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly S and E I would set my expectations for mood flakes at best at this point. It's already 40F in Trenton, up 6 degrees in the last hour, and the temp probably going to soar above the forecasted high of 42. It's going to struggle flipping to snow along 95 except maybe towards the very end. I'll be surprised if we even get a coating. The winter weather advisory was the kiss of death just like on Dec. 1.

I think C-2" is a good bet north and west of 95. Unfortunately along 95, south and east this is looking like light rain transitioning to a brief period of wet snow. I think a coating is pushing it. Most likely just wet ground and mood flakes.

I'm at .5" on the season. Beginning to wonder if I'll crack 5"...

I'm not seeing anything more than a coating for really anyone. Many of the 12z suite suggest we get absolutely nada.

I hope this post can be bump trolled but it looks like January is a complete punt at this point. Nothing at all worth tracking except cutters and AN temps. Have to hope things start to improve in the LR in the next week...

Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol

The descent towards "March will be rocking" has begun.

funny enough, if you look at the AO, NAO, and PNA forecasts on the NCEP page, you'd think we're heading in the right direction.

Last 24 hours have been a complete disaster in the long range. No end in sight of the PAC trough on the GEFS and it's gotten worse every run since 12z yesterday matching the EPS. I had a feeling the GEFS was being too quick in breaking down the PAC, just have to hope the idea comes back in the coming days so that we are back in the game by mid January. I think this ratter pattern would sting a lot less if Dec.1-2nd didn't bust horribly around here. But man, just not a whole lot of positives to talk about for at minimum the next 2(and likely 3) weeks.

^^ probably the best shot of snow for the rest of the month. Looking like we punt the next 2 weeks at least. Long range ensembles show the pac improving as we head into early January but you have to wonder if that is too quick of a breakdown. I'm skeptical right now that the west coast trough will be as transient as currently depicted. One positive is that the ensembles are showing blocking in the AO and NAO area's through the end of the run so we have that going at least. Overall though think we see much of the same, warm/wet and cool/dry until the PAC gets in better shape. I'm thinking it won't be until mid January until we get the pattern where we want it. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks before hitting the panic button.

Had a few flurries around noon. Feels like snow outside though. I think that's the best we're getting out of this storm down here in lower bucks lol

Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap.

Ended with a coating, .5". Nice to see flakes flying this morning. Hopefully the first of many.