The Iceman

give me this set up in late april/may... Would likely be a severe threat in March, but that would be an epic look with better instability like we'd see in April or May.

Yeah hopefully we get another 02-03 winter after suffering though 01-02 all over again. Then again we could always get another 12-13 which was only a little bit better(still horrible) than 11-12. 4th straight year though now with 0 events >6" during met winter at PHL. Largest snowfall in that span being 4.1". Largest event including March is only 6.7" and we've only hit the 6" mark twice in those 4 years both being in March 2018. 2016 we had the HECS but by and large it was a dud winter that we got lucky by nailing our 1 window of opportunity. So really we're going on 5 straight met winter's that were absolutely brutal. You'd think something has to give next year...unless this is our new normal..

Yeah S jersey has done better than PHL and N and W. PHL is at 4.51" on the year so far. Currently ranked 109th out of 136 years. Average to date is around 5.6" so about an inch below normal so far. A few active weeks should erase that though.

Seems like a lot of the rain events of late have been under performing. Looks like more of the same tn. Was looking like a 1"+ of rain a few days ago, now looking like a half inch or less. Fairly below normal which isn't a surprise due to the lack of snowpack across the region. Next few weeks look active though so we may be able to put a dent in this. Still fires like the one on Tammany the other night may start becoming more frequent if we don't get some more soaking rains soon.

Roadtrip...

I'm crossing my fingers we can get a similar system to tomorrow to occur a month from now. Would be a very interesting severe set up if that was the case. I think we're in for a decent severe spring with no signs of the pattern changing. That would be cool.

Our NE PA friends may see some snow on the backside tomorrow. Perhaps even down to Allentown may see some flakes at the end. NAM gives Scranton 1-3".

Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. '

Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...

That is not a neg NAO. That's a neutral NAO look that will likely trend positive as we get closer as it has most of the winter based on the graph above. Check out the GEFS today, it's about as positive as it gets in the LR. No blocking at all. This threat has apps runner written all over it. Would like to be wrong though.

Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...

Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter.

Had that fluke in Jan 2016 not occurred, we would be going on 6 straight met winters with 0 snow events >6". 7 out 10 met winters this decade featured no snow events > 6". PHL is now in their 4th straight met winter with zero snow events >6" with the largest snowfall being 4.1". A similar met winter drought came in the late 80's/early 90's. The winter's of 87-88, 88-89, 89-90, 90-91, 91-92, 92-93, 93-94 all did not record a single snowfall > 6" during met winter. Hopefully we are not in a repeat of that cycle...

Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.

Bored this morning so here are some more PHL stats. Since 1884 there have been 21 winters with < 10" of snow at PHL. The average of the following winter was 24.6". The median was 21.8". 5 of the 21 were followed by another year of <10". 11 of 21 were above normal including 2 of the top 3 snowiest winters of all time. So statistically, next year should be decent.

If we don't get a pattern shift in March, it should lead to a helluva severe season in March - April - May. These storm tracks with even a little bit of instability would be severe threat after severe threat. But as I said a few weeks ago, we'll probably punt the entire month of Feb, get a little hope in March that probably fails because it's March, then 8 weeks of cold, rain, and mud. I would be honestly happy if we slide right into spring come March after this winter, but let's be real, mother nature is going to stretch this monstrosity of a winter out as long as possible... Side note: It's growing more and more likely that I set my all time futility record with every day that passes with no end to the pattern in sight. Still an inch below the dreaded 97-98 winter that finished with 2.4 inches. This winter will be the 6th winter in my lifetime(most likely) with < 10" of snow. 01-02 we had 5 inches, 11-12 we had 5.5 inches, 91-92 we had 6 inches, 07-08 we had 6.5 inches. So about 1 in every 5 years of my life so far has been a complete ratter winter. But some good news, in those 29 winters, we've never had back to back winters of < 10 inches. The average of the winters that came after those 5 < 10" winters was 23.8" with a median of 14". So next year should almost certainly be better even if it could be "bad" overall.

Awesome information, thank you! We are planning to hit one away game(against the Yankees), so I will keep this all in mind. I don't really care about autograph's, but I do think it's cool chatting with the players/maybe getting a photo and definitely would like to try and do that. Really looking forward to the experience!

Lot's of moving parts but there is a chance of a fluke next week. It will likely fail but there is a chance we thread the needle. I mean we're due right?

.9" of rain so far with this event. Pretty far off from the 2-3" totals being printed on the models even 48 hours out from the event.

5 miles south of there and I have half of that. Gradient winter

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter.

Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

00z euro looks wet for this week. 3-4" amounts right across SE PA.

6z GFS is a weenie run and a half lol. Sadly, we know it will be gone in 6 hours. Like a March snowstorm.