The Iceman

? SE DC is still snowing and I'm almost positive that wasn't supposed to still be the case

I know it's nowcast time and models aren't as useful this close but the nam straight up just sucks for 95 later. Only a hour or two of snow then over to sleet..even a little n and w of 95 goes over to sleet fairly quickly. Hopefully the HRRR is more on point with the WAA snows and the nam is overdone on the warmth.

25F/17DP and overcast. Radar blossoming to the south now.

WAA is going to be the key for 95. HRRR has a nice thump of 6-8" of snow before any changeover. Feeling comfortable at 8-12" up here. Think 95 may end up closer to 4-8" though if the WAA is a fierce as progged.

Made it down to 21F last night. Dew point is 12F currently.

Nice! Good luck to you too! Looking forward to my first storm in the Sourlands! Hopefully the CAD holds up and we stay heavy snow as long as possible. I think we are in pretty good shape for 8-12".

Much better WAA thump before the changeover to sleet even down to 95. Great improvement!

Mt Holly update. Big time cut in places.

Yeah it mixes pretty far but there's still a good deal of snow. Ukmet is way worse imo

I'm too young to purchase a snow blower or at least that's what I keep telling myself... Bought a new shovel over the weekend though. Could of been the kiss of death

Valentine's Day 07(it's either 07 or 08 I can't remember) is a storm I'll never forget. 3-6" of cement sleet followed by 2 weeks of cold that made it a solid glacier. That year sucked for snow, we had another big sleet storm that March, but it was the most solid "snowpack" I ever remember. Lasted longer than some of our historic blizzards.

Off Hopewell-Wertsville...N. of the actual borough. It's actually more only like 420'-450' okay but still way more elevation than my old house was my only point!

Surprisingly I'm at like 500' at my property here. Way better than the 33 ft I was at in lower bucks. Look up the Sourland "Mountains"

My expectations all along have been warning level event. Should still score that in Hopewell with the initial WAA thump. 6-10" sounds about right though I'm expecting more like 4-8". This is my first winter being in a traditional CAD zone with some elevation so I'm not as sure. Based on my old spot in Levittown though, I'd only be expecting 2-4" there. 1-3" on the WAA thump then over to mainly sleet with light rain during the dry slot. Similar for philly. Feel for you guys and I hope the trend stops because I'm on the edge of warning snow now...

HRRR also showing the sleet line getting really far NW https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121512/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_40.png

New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right...

I am shocked at mt Holly's forecast for 95. High likelihood they are going to bust massive again around 95 just like they did the last Decembers storm where 6-12" was forecast and we got 0 and the March storm 2 years ago where 18-24" was forecast but we ended up with 3-6" due to the sleet layer being underforecasted. Those are crazy high forecast totals with the uncertainty we have in place in regard to precip type. Even up here in Hopewell, they're calling for 18-24" and I'll be shocked if that verifies. The meso models have the sleet line punching up towards Allentown. When they've shown this in the past, it has verified and it's usually too conservative with the sleet line. I'm expecting a ton of sleet now for 95 itself. Probably only 3-6" total because of that. Even up near me I think we are 6-12" because of the sleet. Hopefully the trend stops.

CCB just rots there

Not according to the 1hour euro precip type maps. Sleet line doesn't even hit 95 on the euro. I can't share the whole thing but this as far north as it gets

We're still 48 hours out. Everywhere is going to be conservative at this stage in the game. Surprised places are throwing totals up yet. Looking good still but we know a lot can change in 24 hours.

Euro is a big hit for most of the region

At home in Hopewell 37 and rain. At work in Trenton 39 and rain. Good luck to the NW, hope you guys squeeze out an inch or 2.

I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8".

New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen. 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet 10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. Sharp cut off south of 95.

Yeah definitely buckdd the NW trend and way less amped. Mix line touches 95(still frozen) but sinks back down. It isn't the rgem but it's actually more in line what I'm thinking. Warning level event 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet. 10-15" with lolli's in the 20s N and W of 95 toward Lehigh Valley. Sharp cut off south of 95 though(sorry s. Jersey).