The Iceman

Mt Holly update. Big time cut in places.

Yeah it mixes pretty far but there's still a good deal of snow. Ukmet is way worse imo

I'm too young to purchase a snow blower or at least that's what I keep telling myself... Bought a new shovel over the weekend though. Could of been the kiss of death

Valentine's Day 07(it's either 07 or 08 I can't remember) is a storm I'll never forget. 3-6" of cement sleet followed by 2 weeks of cold that made it a solid glacier. That year sucked for snow, we had another big sleet storm that March, but it was the most solid "snowpack" I ever remember. Lasted longer than some of our historic blizzards.

Off Hopewell-Wertsville...N. of the actual borough. It's actually more only like 420'-450' okay but still way more elevation than my old house was my only point!

Surprisingly I'm at like 500' at my property here. Way better than the 33 ft I was at in lower bucks. Look up the Sourland "Mountains"

My expectations all along have been warning level event. Should still score that in Hopewell with the initial WAA thump. 6-10" sounds about right though I'm expecting more like 4-8". This is my first winter being in a traditional CAD zone with some elevation so I'm not as sure. Based on my old spot in Levittown though, I'd only be expecting 2-4" there. 1-3" on the WAA thump then over to mainly sleet with light rain during the dry slot. Similar for philly. Feel for you guys and I hope the trend stops because I'm on the edge of warning snow now...

HRRR also showing the sleet line getting really far NW https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121512/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_40.png

New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right...

I am shocked at mt Holly's forecast for 95. High likelihood they are going to bust massive again around 95 just like they did the last Decembers storm where 6-12" was forecast and we got 0 and the March storm 2 years ago where 18-24" was forecast but we ended up with 3-6" due to the sleet layer being underforecasted. Those are crazy high forecast totals with the uncertainty we have in place in regard to precip type. Even up here in Hopewell, they're calling for 18-24" and I'll be shocked if that verifies. The meso models have the sleet line punching up towards Allentown. When they've shown this in the past, it has verified and it's usually too conservative with the sleet line. I'm expecting a ton of sleet now for 95 itself. Probably only 3-6" total because of that. Even up near me I think we are 6-12" because of the sleet. Hopefully the trend stops.

CCB just rots there

Not according to the 1hour euro precip type maps. Sleet line doesn't even hit 95 on the euro. I can't share the whole thing but this as far north as it gets

We're still 48 hours out. Everywhere is going to be conservative at this stage in the game. Surprised places are throwing totals up yet. Looking good still but we know a lot can change in 24 hours.

Euro is a big hit for most of the region

At home in Hopewell 37 and rain. At work in Trenton 39 and rain. Good luck to the NW, hope you guys squeeze out an inch or 2.

I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8".

New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen. 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet 10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. Sharp cut off south of 95.

Yeah definitely buckdd the NW trend and way less amped. Mix line touches 95(still frozen) but sinks back down. It isn't the rgem but it's actually more in line what I'm thinking. Warning level event 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet. 10-15" with lolli's in the 20s N and W of 95 toward Lehigh Valley. Sharp cut off south of 95 though(sorry s. Jersey).

Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall.

Agree with lv blizzard. Gfs is def out to lunch 95 is going over to sleet at this point for a decent amount of time. Still should be mostly frozen and I still like my call of warning level event for 95 N and W.

Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch.

Yeah coastal areas will probably see rain but that was always the case. There may be a sneaky warm layer we will have to look out for as we get closer if the tucked into the coast members verify.. warm ocean temps may lead to some sleet but I don't know that for sure. Just based more on experience around here. Lows tucked into the coast typically have mixing issues further nw than progged. However we have a high in just about the perfect place. I'm pretty giddy tbh. My expectations are set at warning level(6") and it's looking great for at least that for 95 n and w.

Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance.

I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday.