The Iceman

At home in Hopewell 37 and rain. At work in Trenton 39 and rain. Good luck to the NW, hope you guys squeeze out an inch or 2.

I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8".

New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen. 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet 10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. Sharp cut off south of 95.

Yeah definitely buckdd the NW trend and way less amped. Mix line touches 95(still frozen) but sinks back down. It isn't the rgem but it's actually more in line what I'm thinking. Warning level event 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet. 10-15" with lolli's in the 20s N and W of 95 toward Lehigh Valley. Sharp cut off south of 95 though(sorry s. Jersey).

Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall.

Agree with lv blizzard. Gfs is def out to lunch 95 is going over to sleet at this point for a decent amount of time. Still should be mostly frozen and I still like my call of warning level event for 95 N and W.

Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch.

Yeah coastal areas will probably see rain but that was always the case. There may be a sneaky warm layer we will have to look out for as we get closer if the tucked into the coast members verify.. warm ocean temps may lead to some sleet but I don't know that for sure. Just based more on experience around here. Lows tucked into the coast typically have mixing issues further nw than progged. However we have a high in just about the perfect place. I'm pretty giddy tbh. My expectations are set at warning level(6") and it's looking great for at least that for 95 n and w.

Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance.

I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday.

Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger?

12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment

Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either

That map deserves a 5 bun salute Would be one hell of a birthday though

I honestly didn't know the eps mean went that high after the last few winters

Stolen from Weather Will over in the Mid Atlantic Forum... Some really nice hits on the GEFS( Give me p09 and call it a winter lol) but also shows the wide range of uncertainty which is to be expected this far out. Overall though the look up top looks good for an event.

Glad I moved 20 miles north last year. Difference between 15" in Hopewell and 3" in Levittown This storm would fall on my 30th bday so I'm rooting pretty hard for it. It's never snowed over .1" on my birthday so really if we get anything, it's going to be memorable. Really liking the set up! Best one we've had in a while and just inside 7 days! Edit: Threat on the 20-21st isn't terrible either on the GFS a pretty close miss, very interested to see what the ensembles have to say on that as well.

Not confirmed... just my weenie hopes and dreams. Knowing dougie, we'll probably have to coddle Wentz for another half before Hurts gets a shot. And knowing climo, the big event next week will probably be 50% rain

That was the best moment of the Eagles season so far. Hopefully just the preview of Hurts leading this team to victory over the Saints Kinda like how tomorrow will hopefully be the preview of a real event in the next week....

Same. My entire 1.5" last year fell in that storm. Since the 2016 blizzard, met winter has been just about non existent in these parts and things don't look to be changing anytime soon. When I get some time I'll check for sure, but this has got to be one of the worst 5 year met winter stretches ever. If we don't get saved in March in both 17-18 and 18-19, we're talking about one of the worst stretches of winter ever around here.

Judging from the recent ensemble update, I would look for our next real threat to be centered in the 12/12-12/13 range. Looks like the NAO/AO rise towards neutral and the PNA dives towards negative. There tends to be an event centered around that flip. Details this far out as far as any specific event are useless but hopefully we will have a better stock of cold air in place for it. That's the time period I'm most hopeful at this time anyway for now. Also have to hope that rise in the AO/NAO region is short lived because with a strong Nina, a +PNA for a significant amount of time was always highly unlikely. We really need the atlantic to cooperate or it's going to be rough...

Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's.

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back..