The Iceman

Cmc is close to all frozen as well. Gfs shifted pretty significantly east as well with the low. Good trends today for an all frozen event Thursday. Tuesday still looks like a washout for most except those in the lehigh valley.

Euro/HRRR is the only guidance that ticked colder. Interesting. Euro still changes most over to rain but much more ice than the other models.

Stuck in mt laurel tonight. Anything unsalted is a sheet of ice including side streets. Worst icing I've witnessed in awhile especially down here. Main roads are salted but you can hear people sliding all over the neighborhood.

Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

Drove from Hopewell > Levittown > Mt Laurel and it went from nothing/wet in Hopewell, to a glaze in levittown, to actually like .1" of icing down on mt Laurel. It's pretty slick down here.

I'm posting my observations. How can observations have a clue or no clue? It's been light freezing rain all afternoon and there is zero accretion on any surfaces. Sorry that hurts your feelings. Some people get worked up over no reason... Par the course for that user.

Slightly higher rates and we would have puddles forming it has been optimal light freezing rain conditions this afternoon and it hasn't done anything.

It's been a steady mist the last 2 hours, streets, car, deck, trees all wet. No accretion.

No it isn't.

Temp is down to 28 but still no ice accretion on any surfaces. Should serve as a caution for those expecting big ice this week with marginal temps around freezing...

Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz?

Naefs still indicating a minor possibly moderate flood threat this week for the areas that won't stay frozen especially in the smaller tributaries. https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7 And that doesn't include all of the storm drains that are blocked and frozen around here, there's going to be a lot of water with nowhere to go. Lehigh valley and other elevated areas will have to watch for ice but I just still do not seeing it be that big of a deal from central bucks/montco s and e but hey maybe the euro will finally score a coup after being hot garbage all year.

I'm confused, pretty much everyone here said it would be this afternoon/evening...

Light freezing rain/sleet has started in lower bucks. 29F in the car.

Won't be until this afternoon evening. Very light amounts of whatever falls but it should be frozen. Maybe some slick spots on untreated surfaces but nothing significant at all.

Are you looking at the right paragfs run? Looks like heavy rain almost to the pa/nys border at 6z. Just seems like all guidance is bleeding the wrong way now even the euro was a bit warmer at 06z than 00z. Hopefully we start to see a reversal soon but trends have been more and more liquid the last 24-48 hours.

Overnight guidance only has increased the flood threat this week. Gfs has Philly hitting 60 on Friday morning in addition to 1" on qpf.

06z guidance even warmer. Don't think there is a model that even keeps lehigh valley under 32 now. 084 hr nam is the new king.

Do you have stats showing the icon is trash? Not totally trolling, I just legitimately have never seen icon verification scores one way or another anywhere so a link to see how good or poor it's done recently would be a cool bookmark.

18z euro also gets 95 and immediate nw burbs above freezing. Not quite as warm as nam/rgem but warmer than the cmc/gfs and bigger plain rain signal than ice. Heaviest precip arrives just as temps go above 32 for 95 and burbs. Big time ice out in lehigh valley though.

Rgem is even warmer than the nam at 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021218/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_84.png

Guess you haven't been paying attention to the nam(and rgem) both cleaning the globals clock the last week in their long range.

Nam looks awful.. hopefully it doesn't continue it's recent hot streak because it looks like a gully washer shaping up at 84

Ensembles seem to think there's a threat. Obviously it's greater on the gefs but naefs still shows some concern: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7

Can't ignore that the se ridge has been significantly under forecasted the last two weeks. It's why dc has failed. As we lose the blocking, it makes sense for it to flex further as a response and with the pv not pressing s as it was, there's nothing to prevent the warm air from scouring out the air mass. Hopefully the pv trends stronger, further s, and the se ridge isn't as strong but I really don't like what I see anymore. Good chance tomorrow is the most frozen of the 3 events next week now.