The Iceman

GFS ensembles show some hope for this on the 20th. 10/31 show a coating - 2" from SE PA and N so a decent signal. Something to watch at least for now. I decided that I'm not going to get negative until the pattern either flips or it's March 1st and we still are in the same rut. I just feel like something has got to break our way soon with the teleconnections in place. I just don't see us being blanked again like last year with the pattern in place. Edit: 12z Euro has a c-2" deal on the 21st too. I think next week we should have a decent shot of seeing some wintry weather. The models aren't going to have a good grasp on the N stream until Monday at the earliest so hopefully things trend our way.

The 12z models are all over the place for next week which is to be expected in this time frame. Ignoring the southern stream completely though, there should be few chances next week for some coating - 2" type deals from the N stream. Obviously the models aren't going to sniff something like that out at range, but all the models have several N stream shortwaves passing nearby on the 20th, 21st, and 23rd. Wouldn't take much adjustment on any of those for us to see maybe a WWA type deal that sneaks up. Like someone said above, things are just boring right now, trying to find something worth discussing

Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro.

@psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off!

I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan. We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that.

You said this was a strong nina like a month ago. Now it's solid moderate in your own words. So how isn't it weakening?

They say the big ones are sniffed out at range... Well only 14 days to go til our HECS. It's a beaut of a fantasy storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011300&fh=378

Sorry , that was meant to be sarcasm. I really meant it's way too early to be saying that. In the near term, the AO tanks then the ensembles are kind of torn on where to go from there. The blocking in the NAO region seems to be going nowhere quick and many times the AO follows the NAO. Plus a rise towards neutral after going sharply negative is when we see our biggest events. Imo the pattern looks the best it has all winter starting next week.

AO sure looks to be going positive ...

Most boring pattern in history and no signs of breaking any time soon. I wonder if we ll see any synoptic events in January or if they'll all wash out SE... Seems to be the case going forward...

I'm still not giving up on the 12th yet. Will it most likely fail? yes but still some uncertainty there. I'm going to go a bit weenie to show why I'm still interested but here it goes. The closest model that brings a storm so far is the 12z CMC. It ends up phasing the N stream but just a bit too late. However, take a look at the NAM and RGEM and that piece of energy that phases too late on the CMC is further SE at 84H. Also the GFS doesn't even have that piece of energy Will need some really lucky timing for this one to work out but I don't think the threat is dead, yet. I'll give it until Saturday 00z probably before throwing in the towel. If it does end up sliding harmlessly out to see this would be back to back threats the models sniffed out 8 days in advance and didn't budge.

Still a decent signal for the 12th at least so all is not lost there

Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out we won't see that consistency the rest of winter...

Thanks for sharing. I still love going through your winter storm archive. One of my favorite winter weather sites. Any chance you'll find the time to update it again? If it's something you're interested in at all, I wouldn't mind helping either since I know it's got to be a lot of work putting all the maps together. It's an awesome resource to relive the past winter storms .

I think it's a combination of futility, the Dec. 17th storm going from 95 MECS to SECS last minute, and the fact the pattern has been somewhat of a tease I think are all leading to frustration but I agree that things are looking rocking for the 2nd half of Jan. Seem's like the clipper train opens up and possibly we can get in on some miller B action. Should be fun times ahead and the build up of cold air in the long range combined with the continuation of arctic blocking is very promising. I still think the 12th bears watching too still. Just have to get through this week and we should be tracking threats for the forseeable future imo get some rest...

I think the 12th is our first real threat of this pattern.

32 and sleet

Where do you get upset from that post? Just my own thoughts. We are still threading the needle with every threat with the marginal cold air in place. Do you see high ku potential within 7 days? I don't with that airmass in place unless we get a perfect track.

Its funny how often we talk of needing to thread the needle without a -nao but you still need do the same thing even with it in place. I personally won't feel warm and fuzzy or hyped about this pattern until something interesting shows up on guidance within 7 days. Right now, looks mostly like cold rains or sheared out messes to the south.

Hope you're correct. The lack of cold air continent wide has me concerned though. Combine that with ocean temps in the atl still above normal and things look pretty bleak snow wise for 95 through at least mid month imo.

Woke up to a dusting outside. Anyone else? Nice surprise.

January looks pretty bleak as long as those series of lows continue to rip into AK. We even get good storm tracks but the entire continent is flooded with pac air. I see talks in other sub forums of SSWE have begun. Winter must really be on the brink...

Just lost power in Hopewell. Merry effin Christmas....

Don't rule out 1-3" Sunday evening se pa and NJ. 3km nam picking up on the low level cold.

Still snowing lightly out there here in Hopewell. Anyone else? Pretty picturesque with the 6 inches or so on the ground.