The Iceman

I wouldn't be shocked at all of we somehow get through this period with nothing more than a coating...

Damn this event has kind of fallen apart the last 24 hours as most of the precip collapses as its reaching the area due to the low transfer. Really now looking like a borderline advisory event for most. Agree with others 1-3" region wide seems to be a good bet. At least it's something... Still some time for things to trend a bit juicier..

Euro is a complete miss with the second storm. Hopefully the eps shows some hope with it. At least we will likely see some snow with storm 1.

Pretty tough forecast at this range. 3-6" seems like a safe bet for 95 n and w but the euro shearing things out concerns me. Definitely would prefer the warmer gfs that brings more precip even if we get mixing issues.

Euro kind of shears the storm out over us... Not much precip at all but the cold is there

GEFS for storm 2.. still several hits in there.. seems to be the ones that are slower with the southern shortwave are able to bring it more N... we'll see

Thanks for starting the storm thread Paul, I agree it was time to do so. Let's hope you bring the good luck, no pressure! 12z gefs individual members.. some big hitters in there but also some misses as well. Still a good deal of uncertainty.

Paul created a thread for the 25-26th threat. Since we are now inside 5 days and it looks like it will be a significant winter threat I say we should move all storm discussion over to that thread. This thread will remain for the 2nd storm on the 28-29th threat that way we have discussion broken up.

CMC still north with storm #2, a glancing blow but close to a big storm in these parts. S jersey actually makes out the best. Agreed that we hopefully see the same N ticks that we've seen with this one. It won't take much, really a 100 mile shift N, gets most of us in the game.

Definitely glad I'm up in Hopewell and not down in Levittown for this one. Really could be a huge difference. Looking like the typical fall line kind of storm around here where 95 is the dividing line between snow and a mix. Still I bet most of the region save for S jersey stays frozen throughout or at least ends as light rain. I don't see this being a mostly rain storm for anyone except extreme S Jersey. First guess and this is still 4 days out, would be 3-6" N of 95 with lollipops in the 8-10" range somewhere in the lehigh valley where the mix line doesn't touch. along 95 I would say 1-4" with heavy mixing. Then c-2" with mostly mix and rain south of 95. I understand people want an all snow storm but this is how we get the majority of our snow around here. Front end thumps over to mixing. I'm still excited for this one...

I'm going to start calling you RedJi The EPS mean is even better than the super weenie 00z run. Still widespread mean of 4-6" for the region on storm #1. Then it has a mean of 10-12" thru 15 days. Very very bullish. Means that high are typically a good indicator we are going to have several chances of white. Gotta stay positive! Here's the 12z EPS weenie map mean, that should help ya!

Dude the ukie only goes out to 144... It still has the 2nd storm and it looks better than the gfs did at 144. Extrapolating, that's probably a hit incoming... Also the ukie is solid for most of the forum on storm one. Yeah the northern tier makes out better but the southern tier still stays frozen verbatim through the whole storm. It'd be 2-3" of snow then ice which I think most would take. The ukie would be a great solution for this forum if it came to fruition.

Gfs ensembles are still pretty scatter shot...

Exactly how I feel, let's take it one storm at a time but man is it encouraging to see at least 3 legit threats after this one in the long range. It's been a long time since we've been potentially tracking snow on snow.

Cmc is beautiful for all, that would be my absolute ideal solution for this storm. Everyone gets in on the action. Southern areas see some mixing issues verbatim but see more precip so overall everyone sees at least 3-6". Gfs was a major improvement but still a sharp cut off for our northern friends. Overall though great improvements so far at 12z and that's ignoring how great the long range after this threat looks. Excited to see the gefs.

12z off to a good start. ICON inched north a bit and gives the area a decent hit. Wave 1 is still a little too far south, but wave 2 hits us pretty solid. Haven't seen the clown maps but I'm guessing a solid 3-4" for most places? Good to see the S trend stop at least. I agree we don't want to be in the jackpot this far out, but at the same time a continuing south trend would have been worrisome at this range. 12z tomorrow seems like a good bet on whether this threat has serious legs or not. I don't anticipate many last minute changes on this one, I think once this gets into the day 3-4 range, any changes will be minimal. Just basing this off the last month, the models have generally been pretty spot on from the day 4 range this winter surprisingly. EDIT: Catching up on the ensembles from last night(both GEFS and EPS), there is still a surprisingly amount of amped up N solutions still in play. 12z GFS also just ticked North halting the suppression trend for now.

18z gfs still is a whiff, the para gfs tho is a nice hit region wide!

Not many suppressed looks at all on the eps, that's a good sign.

Gfs/gefs is either going to score a giant coup or have a giant egg on its face. A bit concerning that the gfs ensembles were suppressed like the gefs. I only saw 2 hits on the gefs. Fortunately the eps looks good, much like its op. Not many suppressed looks either.

A bit worried the gfs has squashed our threat for next week. Every time it's done that in the medium range this year, it's been correct. I'll be happy for the mid atlantic crew though, they deserve just as much as us.

Have a nice coating outside. Of course I slept in this morning and missed it fall

Just because you continue to parrot this weird diatribe over and over again doesn't make it true. There is numerous statistical evidence that our modeling forecasting capabilities are much better than 20 years ago and continue to improve each year. It's not an opinion, it's a fact.

PM me, I offered to help Ray(the site owner) about continuing it over in the Philly forum but he said he currently doesn't have the time. I'm good at acquiring the archived forecasts/maps from past events but I don't have the webpage building skills to turn them into a page like that. So if you have the web building capabilities, it's definitely a project I would like to assist on.

Some places may see a coating to an inch tomorrow morning in se pa and central jersey if the RGEM is correct. 06z Euro had it too but not as robust. Maybe a little surprise snow? As for next week, I feel like it's going to be a big mess..obviously still time for things to change but that is a pretty big ice signal at this range. We're still walking a pretty fine line with temps though.. hopefully the blocking and 50/50 pull through and we are just cold enough. I know people are tired of kicking the can down the line but the 28-29th storm looks even better for us. NAO/AO on the rise plus possibly the PNA popping slightly positive around that time frame. Lots of signals for a big east coast storm but obviously what happens with the 26th will effect that. Hard to imagine a complete shutout in the next 10 days, we should see some accumulating snow though how much is still very much in the air. Theres also hints that Feb may not be the disaster it typically is in Nina's.