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The Iceman

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Everything posted by The Iceman

  1. The Iceman
    Ukie is similar to last nights euro imo just a bit further N. strung out transfer so we don't really get a WAA thump and the coastal doesn't really get going until well offshore so it's just 24 hours of light snow lol not a great solution but shows the way we can fail as lvblizz explained above.
  2. The Iceman
    One thing is that the ukie is way slower than the other models. Precip doesn't get going here until 00z monday. Other models have us starting 18z Sunday at the latest.
  3. The Iceman
    maps? Only out to 60 on my site.
  4. The Iceman
    While that could be the case, I believe it's too early to know the dynamics in play. I think there very well could be a nice CCB when the coastal forms that the models just aren't picking up on yet...Not to mention warmer than slightly normal waters in the atlantic, I think the coastal has a good chance of amping up quicker than progged especially if it stalls..
  5. The Iceman
    Oh man the CMC is a textbook hit for these parts. Storm stalls just off the cape may coast and drifts ENE. No real precip type issues for anyone. Widespread 8-12". Add it to the scattershot of solutions but this is a great look. And I think it's a bit underdone on the precip...
  6. The Iceman
    Totally agree, I think we will likely mix up here, almost every big storm does at a point. It will be how much we mix that determines if this is one to remember or not. But I also like where we sit at the moment for a winter storm warning level event.
  7. The Iceman
    Live look in at the mid atlantic forum after the 12z gfs:
  8. The Iceman
    With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues.
  9. The Iceman
    Coastal actually comes together.. but pretty messy transfer. 95 and immidiate suburbs go from thump to mix to rain back over to snow. Actually a pretty crazy long duration storm. Starts a little after 12z Sunday and by 06z Tuesday snow is finally beginning to taper off. Honestly not that bad of a run for us... Nothing 'historic' but that still looks like a fun storm. Overall I give that a "not bad". A 50-75 mile shift towards the euro and many of us are sitting pretty. As Ralph says, we take.
  10. The Iceman
    This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain. Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up.
  11. The Iceman
    Icon is a pretty good result but it doesn't stall the storm out for days... Thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Winter storm warning level event. 4-8" for all. I would definitely take.
  12. The Iceman
    It's a great model when it shows snow. Piece of shit otherwise though...
  13. The Iceman
    Yep big jump on the eps last night. Im way more worried about rain/mixing then I am suppression. Regardless things look great for some snow at least. Details tbd.
  14. The Iceman
    Take a blend of the euro and gfs and we are in the jackpot. I don't think it shakes out like that, but I like where we stand at the moment. Not sold on the HECS yet but biggest snow of the season could certainly be in the cards.
  15. The Iceman
    Definitely way icier than I expected back home in Hopewell. Thin layer of sleet coating the ground that's frozen solid with the freezing drizzle. Untreated surfaces also getting a bit slick. We only got slightly above freezing, high of 32.8 according to my station. Now down to 29.6F. I bet it's going to be a slick night with a bunch of black ice.
  16. The Iceman
    They've moved on to celebrating on the mid field logo down in the mid atlantic thread... Show some class!
  17. The Iceman
    Hell of a mean on the eps... Unbelievable signal at that range...however notice there is clearly a cluster that favors SNE.
  18. The Iceman
    Don't post this in the mid atlantic thread ...they've spiked the football and are doing a full team celebration in the end zone already
  19. The Iceman
    Only 10 more runs of the euro until verification. What can go wrong!
  20. The Iceman
    This entire forum needs this storm. All out blizzard from southern virginia up through maine. Textbook east coast noreaster wow.
  21. The Iceman
    Holy shit, euro crawls up the coast slamming us in hours 168 and 174. Edit: Still ripping at 180 here. Edit 2: finally tapering off at hour 186. .. Can't wait to see the clown maps..
  22. The Iceman
    Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now.
  23. The Iceman
    Euro is going to be a hit incoming. Basically identical to 00z through 126. Edit: through 138 I'd say it still looks identical maybe a tad further south with the coastal. Walloping incoming?
  24. The Iceman
    I'm 20 years into this hobby and still learning! If you ever have questions about any posts here, definitely feel free to ask. I'll be glad to explain the best I can. It's always good to see new "weenies" in the making
  25. The Iceman
    I would hold off on calling the ukie a miss...haven't seen precip panels but through 144 that's a decent low track. Edit: verbatim it's a "miss" but I think the coastal is gearing up to rock us if there was a 150 panel. I think that's a decent run since it's at the end of it's range.
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