The Iceman

Upper montco: 16-20" Lower montco: 12-16"

If I was chasing the 30" lolli, that's the area I'd pick. In between Pottsville and Reading.

Here's my call, I'll update tomorrow if I feel I need to but not expecting many major changes here on out. PHL: 10-14" NE Philly: 12-16" Levittown: 14-18" Trenton: 14-18" Doylestown: 18-24" Allentown: 20-26" Reading: 20-26" Hopewell: 18-24" West Chester: 16-20" South Jersey: 8-12" Shore points: 2-4" Someone in this forum, likely in the N and W will see 30+". If I missed your backyard, just quote and reply.

Judging by the snow maps, looks like another maximum from west central to nw NJ. Maybe multiple jackpots?

21.9" over my house... I guess that's ok . What a run though, we are officially under 24 hour til game time. I'm guessing snow breaks out region wide by 4-5 pm tomorrow.

Good to see ya here Jrodd! Hope all is well with you buddy. Things seem to be getting better and better up to game time, all the makings of a classic!

Top 50 for ya https://jcweather.com/50snowstorms.php I think a top 10 storm is definitely plausible. 16.8" would get them there and if banding sets up correctly, could be in reach. These long duration storms definitely have the potential to overperform.

Roger isn't exactly some random weenie. His words carry some weight even though he's only an amateur imo he knows his shit..

False, mt holly has a big chunk of their area in the 12-18" range.

Glad you read between the lines But seriously, I really, really like where we both sit right now. 12-18" with possibly more, I just wish it was Sunday afternoon, not Saturday.

Mt hollys new map. They seem to think the ccb sets up a bit further ne than guidance as well..doesn't seem they're sold on central pa being the jackpot like on some models. Overall I agree with their map pretty much 100%, mine would look very similar but I think I would of put a stripe of 16-24 in upper bucks/montco through central and nw jersey because whoever gets hit by the pivot is seeing 2 ft imo. That is subject to change though so maybe they'll fine tune as we get closer. As always great work mt holly, this is going to be a tricky one!

Imo I think the nam may have picked up on a last minute trend, and we may see the other models follow suite. Huge nw trend like the December storm into central pa didn't really make a ton of sense with a miller B. I did think it'd come NE a bit come game time but not nearly to that level. I mean it's just so far outside of all other guidance, you really have to toss for now.

If the 18z nam outperforms the 12z euro inside 48 hours to that degree, what's the point of tracking anything?

The new king has the highest totals further se btw. New gfs has been doing a great job so far with this storm

Goodnight folks, one more day to get through before show time. Get some rest everyone..

Still snowing lightly too...

Not just this cycle. Literally it's gone from the furthest SE back to one of the furthest NW back to the furthest SE. Absolutely zero consistency in that model.. I mean none have been consistent but the ukie has been shifting(note shift, not tick) left and right every 12 hours...

Rgem/nam combo please and I won't ask anything else out of this winter.

This is offensive/adult content for sure. Whoa nelly.

With the blocking and confluence in place, I dont see a drastic shift like December. I think we see ticks here on out, not shifts.

Mt holly afd is a good read: A long duration and complex winter storm is forecast to impact the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday through Tuesday. This storm is likely to bring significant accumulating snowfall to portions of the forecast area. Details follow... A mid-level trough located across the West Coast will eject quickly eastward across the Plains on Saturday and stall out across the Ohio Valley early Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will pass across the Ohio Valley then weaken Sunday as a new coastal low forms just south and east of Delaware Bay early Monday. This is a classic Miller-B low pressure evolution which will ultimately become a nor`easter. As the surface low develops and quickly deepens offshore, a strong pressure gradient will yield strong northeasterly winds. A modest arctic high will be located across eastern Canada through the period. As far as precipitation, p-types, and timing, forcing for ascent (overrunning) will arrive Sunday morning spreading from southwest to northeast throughout the day. A rather cold and dry airmass will be in place at the onset (temps in the 10s/20s with dewpoints in the 0s/10s), so precipitation will probably take some time to begin reaching the surface on Monday. Precip should start out as snow almost everywhere, except for perhaps the immediate coast which could see a mix and rain and snow. A surge of warm air advection associated with the initial surface low should result in a period of mixing of precipitation and change over to rain Sunday night into early Monday morning across much of Delmarva and southern/coastal New Jersey. By early Monday, the surface low intensifying and pivoting off the coast will result in increasing winds and increasing cold air advection as the mean flow turns northeasterly. Impressive wind fields (925 mb winds 40-50+ kts along and south/east of I-95) will develop as a result of the gradient leading to strong winds at the surface. The strongest winds will be along and near the coasts with gusts possibly in excess of 50 mph. Farther inland, wind gusts of 35- 45 mph will likely be common along and south/east of I-95. As a result, a change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. Light snow may linger into Tuesday morning depending on how progressive the storm is. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (f-gen) and wrap-around precip regime. The latest 12Z guidance suite has trended the system a bit southward and thus colder, which suggests the greatest potential for f-gen banding across portions of interior southern New Jersey and Delmarva. This axis can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding could potentially exceed the broadbrush ~6-8" storm total snowfall that is currently forecast across much of the urban corridor and south/east away from the coast. We`ve gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the areas of highest confidence of potential impacts from this storm. It is important to note that this will be a abnormally long duration storm (36+ hours of snow and wintry precipitation), and that the highest snow totals and highest snowfall rates will likely not be realized until later on in the event late Monday. The storm total snowfall amounts we are forecasting encompass the entire event as a whole. Some light accumulations may occur through early Tuesday, especially east of Philadelphia as the storm departs. Otherwise, conditions will be generally improving by late Tuesday and winds will diminish. &&

Oh man get your buns ready for 00z... I have a feeling it could be one of those epic nights after that 18z euro. Keep the totals increasing, I'm pushing my chips in as well. All in. This is going to be an epic one.

Giggity-giggity

That's a great first forecast imo could go either way for you guys. The ticks nw at 18z were certainly encouraging though, I don't think they're done. Right now it's the 95 jackpot but I've seen so many times over the year that ends up about 25 miles nw of 95. I'm going to guess the same thing here but that puts your guys closer to the ccb.

whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance?