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The Iceman

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Everything posted by The Iceman

  1. The Iceman
    Driving back from Philly was a nightmare looks to be around 2” out there. Pleasant surprise. Should stick around all weekend too!
  2. The Iceman
    95 jackpot for the ivt? Wasn’t the peak supposed to be 9-2 am tonight? Radar looks great. I’m in Philly and it’s coming down pretty hard. Ground was covered in lower bucks when I left.
  3. The Iceman
    Coming down surprisingly hard in lower bucks. Grass and colder surfaces beginning to cave. Didn’t expect anything this early. Maybe we squeeze out an inch or two?
  4. The Iceman
    Not expecting anything more than flurries
  5. The Iceman
    I would take anything measurable.. because right now we are tracking to finish below normal on the month temp wise with 0 snow.
  6. The Iceman
    We have snow in Levittown.
  7. The Iceman
    Wait wasn’t 2013-14 mostly clippers or am I misremembering that.
  8. The Iceman
    Flakes occasionally mixing in at Trenton but mostly rain. At least I saw snow lol
  9. The Iceman
    .85" overnight and this morning. People were driving like they've never seen rain before this morning.
  10. The Iceman
    100%, anything amped is going to be a mixed bag or cold rain for those of us in the coastal plain/95 potentially even further NW. would be prolific storm for central pa and the poconos. Weaker wave that slides underneath won’t be as prolific of a snowmaker but would be a nice region wide 2-4/3-6” storm for most.
  11. The Iceman
    squall line overnight? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024112018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png
  12. The Iceman
    Euro has it too... lock it in
  13. The Iceman
    RGEM showing a period of snow Friday morning for just about everyone, same with the FV3. Ignore the accumulation maps but should make for some nice snow TV if it happens.
  14. The Iceman
    I’d be happy just to see some flakes fly down this way, think there’s a decent chance of seeing that.
  15. The Iceman
    I don't know, I've been worried that Greenskeeper is going to show up in Levittown with the hot dog gun that the Phanatic carries to hunt me down.
  16. The Iceman
    Yep I agree, seasonal forecasting is a crapshoot more now than ever. Encouraging though that it's looking like we should start with a good pattern towards the end of the month/beginning of december. The pieces are there to get on the board early. Good to see you back buddy, your annual return is one of the signs I look for that winter is coming
  17. The Iceman
    That's why i like the looks being advertised late month. If they come to fruition I will feel much more hopeful towards winter. Last winter we had a similar advertised massive -NAO in early december that was really just transient and muted by the pacific which never came together. That really set the tone for winter. If the upcoming pattern actually delivers with help from the pacific, I think we can start taking the 13-14, 99-2000 like pattern possibilities more seriously. Yes there will be a thaw in January but I could see getting on the board with a storm or 2 in December then picking back up in February if the december pattern delivers. I feel like December sets the tone for winters in Nina's. If this upcoming pattern disappoints and we get blanked in December, winter will likely disappoint. If it delivers, I'll be much more optimistic.
  18. The Iceman
    The real concern I have about this winter is that we haven't seen @Ralph Wiggumyet. He usually posts his thoughts by now. Maybe he thinks it's an 01-02, 11-12 redux lol
  19. The Iceman
    late month into december shaping up to definitely start cool. heights in place to potentially see an early season snow as well. Ensembles hinting at atlantic blocking getting in place by Nov. 20th with a -EPO/+PNA occurring shortly thereafter which should filter cold air into the area. As the atlantic block weakens, there will likely be a chance for something imo. It's early december so chances are already low but the pieces look to be in place at least. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024111406/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024111400/eps_z500a_namer_41.png
  20. The Iceman
    Woke up with no power wtf peco
  21. The Iceman
    While obviously snow is unlikely, ensemble modeling is beginning to hint at an extended period of Atlantic blocking for the second half of the month. This should at the very least break the extended dry spell and shut off the well above normal temps.
  22. The Iceman
    3 alarm brush fire in New Hope, we are becoming the new California
  23. The Iceman
    Here's my winter forecast: Temps: Dec +1 - +3 Jan +2 - +4 Feb +4 - +6 Mar +1 - +3 Overall +2 - +4 Snowfall at select locations PHL 5-10" TTN 8-14" ABE 15-20" ACY 4-8" With how northern stream dominant the pattern has been this fall, I do think we see a return of the clipper this winter. Think this is how we receive most of our snow with several 1-3"/2-4" storms. I think this will also be a winter of big swings. Some pretty good cold shots followed by temps in the 70's a few days later. I don't see weeks on end of it being cold or warm. Precip overall below normal with a lack of southern stream interaction. We may sneak in a miller B that provides the area with it's biggest snowfall of the year(4-8" type deal) but not seeing a blockbuster as I expect the NAO to remain mostly positive.
  24. The Iceman
    I don’t mean for this to be snarky but calling for one of the warmest winters on record isn’t exactly going out on a limb considering we’ve seen 8 of the top 10 warmest winters in Philadelphia since 2010 and 6 of the top 10 warmest in the last 10 years and this year sure as hell doesn’t look like a 13-14 so ya most likely it’ll be a warm winter, they all are these days. Now dry, that would be unusual…
  25. The Iceman
    Looking like I may go the entire month of October without a drop of rain, pretty crazy.
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