The Iceman

Getting a nice burst of snow now, grass starting to get coated. Wind is really roaring too. Nice ending to the storm.

I will believe when I see it. 99% of the time precip dries up before it's cold enough to change over. I'm expecting nothing more than some flurries.

The system on the 28th bares watching imo. Several nice hits on the EPS and the 00z euro wasn't too far off from a hit. Honestly considering this last storm trended 500 miles west in one run, it's right where we want it

If it isn’t going to snow, I’d rather it be 60 degrees. Cold and dry sucks balls.

King GFS is going to rule the day

IDK about anyone else but I trust the GEFS on ridge placement 7 days out over the CMC and ICON.

2.3" of rain storm total. We were ripping fatties(rain drops) for several hours yesterday evening.

BTW I'm on team "get on the board" with this system. I won't be disappointed with a 2-4" type storm. The pattern is ripe for a big dog but since I can only remember 1 white Christmas in my lifetime, I would really take anything that keeps the ground white through the 25th. That still looks very favorable at this junction.

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but I'm not seeing major wholesale changes at 500 MB between yesterdays 12z GEFS + EPS and last nights 00z GEFS + EPS. OP's are going to swing wildly in this time range, I can't remember the last storm that didn't budge 7-8 days out... If things are still a mess come Monday though then it may be time to get worried but the ensembles are still showing big time white potential.

Euro is a solid hit for all but the coast.

lol

GEFS also sharper with the trough out west That is going to be one of the key players for this system.

that 12z GFS run is a weenie run of the season so far Back to back SECS 3 days apart. Jan/Feb could be an all out torch and I'd be satisfied with winter if that solution comes to fruition.

Zero snow, straight over to sleet and rain 34F.

I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well. 00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with.

Buy an Iphone

Good luck to those in the NW areas but this event is a nothing burger around 95, if not for timing around the morning rush, I doubt we even see the WWA's. Looking long term...I fail to see how this 500 MB look results in a pre-christmas cutter, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's that if there's a will there's a way...

That’s the one to watch, if 500 mb sets up like this(from 6z gefs), we will see snow from it even if coastal plain flips over for a time. That’s almost as textbook as it gets for big snow in these parts.

I'll check back where we are after the weekend, impossible to make judgements this far out in either direction. So much can change in the next 72 hours. Nice to see a parade of threats lining up in the long range though.

Have to love the parade of threats in the long range on that 6z GFS. Chances are 1 of them have to deliver.

GEFS isn't bad either, not as pronounced +PNA but still much better than we are currently working with. Starting to like the potential from the 20th-30th.

Chistmas week is looking SECSY on the GEPS. That's a great 500 MB look if it comes to fruition.

Same here, 17th is my bday so I'd kill for a storm over that weekend. Set up looks a lot better than the first half of the month with more ridging out west, not perfect by any means but enough to potentially do the job. Still think the following week will be the one to watch though as the ridging out west looks to only improve from there. Now just have to hope it moves forward in time and doesn't keep getting pushed back.

Don't worry, they always start well the first ten games then things collapse. We're right in line still for a top 3 pick in a loaded draft and a GM change. My worry though is that unless they clear out the advisors along with the GM(Clarke, Holmgren, Lombardi, Barber), then nothing is really going to change. They'll only hire another puppet that caters to the whims of these dinosaurs. They desperately need fresh blood coming in from outside of the organization. The broad street bullies had their day but the game has passed them by. Get them the hell out of all organizational decision making, it's beyond time. As someone that didn't get to witness the cups, it's really beginning to stain their legacy to me as they are responsible for this current mess. I think Torts can be the right coach but they need a plan to acquire high end talent and no one in the front office currently has one.

Really need the PNA to pop positive. Things look good in the NAO/AO domain beginning now, but until we get some ridging in the west we're going to be stuck in the cold/dry > warm up/wet cycle.