The Iceman

“Here's my winter forecast: Temps: Dec +1 - +3 Jan +2 - +4 Feb +4 - +6 Mar +1 - +3 Overall +2 - +4 Snowfall at select locations PHL 5-10" TTN 8-14" ABE 15-20" ACY 4-8" With how northern stream dominant the pattern has been this fall, I do think we see a return of the clipper this winter. Think this is how we receive most of our snow with several 1-3"/2-4" storms. I think this will also be a winter of big swings. Some pretty good cold shots followed by temps in the 70's a few days later. I don't see weeks on end of it being cold or warm. Precip overall below normal with a lack of southern stream interaction. We may sneak in a miller B that provides the area with it's biggest snowfall of the year(4-8" type deal) but not seeing a blockbuster as I expect the NAO to remain” I can’t figure out how to cross quote on mobile but this was my winter forecast from November 1st. Overall not bad snow wise and pattern wise, but definitely too warm temp wise. We never really saw huge positive departures this winter. Snowfall wise pretty on point for most areas probably too low in acy and Philly. overall I give winter a B-. We are going to finish slightly below average snow wise but it was mostly cold and we had a lot of snow events even if they were all small advisory events. Some slightly better luck and this would have been a memorable winter. But compared to the last few, it actually felt like winter this year for a full season not just for a few days or weeks so that’s a win in my book.

Also the ground by me is muddy as hell, no drought conditions here at the moment

Saw the first bumble bee of spring outside today. Winters over folks

I was sick all day yesterday but I really don’t believe you guys with 2-4” there’s like a dusting here cmon.

I wasn’t alive for the 1980s but someone was telling me the other day that this was exactly like the typical 80s winter. Does that track for you old heads in here?

Based on radar it’s looking like I’ll get at least 1-2” today

This is why I haven’t committed or even cared about anything this winter past 72 hours. I check the models once a day in the morning and that’s it and I gotta say my mental health has been way better this winter. I’ve honestly enjoyed this winter even though we are currently basically 50% of normal and every storm has been basically a dud. But this is why.. you have every model and ensemble suite basically showing a secs 5 days out and 24 hours later it’s basically on life support. You just can’t get excited in these parts until the storm is inside 3 days and even then it can rug pull. Anything past that, just forget it, it’s not worth the emotional investment. Seriously lol at it, don’t expect anything, and if it’s still there and looking good inside 3 days then start planning the parade.

Tapering off now, 3.5” here in Levittown. Biggest event of the season and brings us to 13” on the year.

I haven’t shaved since the end of the regular season… my neck is itchy and I look scraggly as hell but anything to help the team! Go birds!!

Wait I thought Tuesday was cancelled? I can’t keep up. Though the way this winter has gone i half expect this to scream north in the next 24 hours where we have to worry about mixing

I hope an eagles fan throws a snowball at you

Have to agree, definitely the best icing event around here in quite some time. Hoping it stays below freezing all night for some good pics in the morning. Icicles hanging from powerlines and trees though from what I can make out in the dark. Looks like a .25” icing here. Rarely do ice events actually pan out around here but this one delivered. Looking like no plain rain all frozen though no snow.

Definitely more ice than I anticipated. Everything encased. Anything untreated is ice. At least .1 already.

Heavy sleet currently… reminds me of Valentine’s Day 07 with the rate… coating over everything

Straight to “freezing” rain, Yeesh this is looking more pathetic than Thursdays “event”.

I have looked at models much much less this year, really just check in to this forum and the discord to see how things are going but I just don’t expect much in winter anymore, any snow I look at as a bonus so maybe that’s why I’m not that down. I also don’t think it’s a shit the blinds look either. We will get what we will get. Go birds!

31-21 birds. Kc is not going to be ready for the physical birds. Even Baltimore said Philly was the most physical game they played all year by far. I think it’ll be a slow bleed but eventually the d and run game take over like they have all year and there isn’t time left for mahomes heroics. Saquon completes arguably the greatest season in nfl history.

I would expect the same as Thursday… that’s what it’s looking like honestly…

I'm afraid to look, so I'm just not going to lol good vibes only this weekend, go birds!

I realize I’m not really a word smith, if my explanation isn’t helpful lmk and I can take some screenshots and show you how I do it… it’s just more work lol let me know though, I don’t mind!

Add files then photo library then select the picture. I have trouble uploading directly from my iPhone though because the iPhone photo files are too large… I usually upload pics through Imgur then inset using other media and “insert through url” then pasting the Imgur link.

Yeah looking more like yesterday imo but I do think we at least see some snow to start in the 95 area. Don't think we'll get as much plain rain as yesterday either. Thinking we'll see at least 1" of snow followed by sleet then ending as freezing rain/drizzle.

I'm not sure how one measures ice, but it looked like we got between .1 and .2. No snow at all, basically started as sleet and really didn't stay sleet super long either. Hoping saturday is a bit more white.

My advice is take each threat one at a time, that's what I'm doing. Pattern is active and should be multiple threats, that's all we can ask for. I'm focused on tonight then will take a look at Sun and Tues tomorrow, not even focused on them yet let alone anything further than that. Tonight was looking like mostly rain 5 days ago and now is looking mostly frozen... Things can change quick.

NAM in the past has always been absolute money with the sleet line. I'm buying it. Mostly sleet outside of far n and w areas who will also see a lot of sleet but they will begin at least as snow. Ends as light rain for Philly and burbs. I refuse to buy into the other models showing snowier solutions... I've been burned way too many times by ignoring the NAM in these situations... it's usually spot on and if it's indicating a mix line further N than other models, it's a red flag imo