The Iceman

My Holly’s latest call: Pretty much in line what I think: 2-4” 95 corridor possibly ending as freezing rain or sleet. 3-5” in the NW burbs all snow. 1-3” S and E of 95 changing over eventually to a mix and dry slot. Should be a nice little event for all. I mean even if some of the other guidance is right about dry slot/mixing 2” should have already fallen at least which would be the biggest event in 2 years. I think this should be a everyone takes storm after 2 years…

3k nam would actually be awesome here… 4” of snow with .05-.1” of freezing rain to get a nice glacier in place. Starting to get a little excited now…. Would be a nice hopefully appetizer to get on the board this year. Right now I’m at .2”…

My Holly first call:

Lol why would anyone even bother looking at the GFS past 84…

"whichever model shows the least amount of snow, go with that" tends to pan out more often than not.

cool so anywhere between 0"-9".

Last time we had this 6 days out, it trended north over the coming days and LV got their solid storm. Watch this one do the opposite and it trends south so SNJ and DE get hit while 95 gets left high and dry. I'm half expecting it tbh.

You can be a fan and acknowledge that this team fucking blows. Expect a quick exit next week with baker mayfield throwing for 400+. I think the entire coaching staff, Sirianni included, needs to be overhauled. If they don’t completely overhaul the staff, they are going to ruin another qb after giving him a huge contract and will be under .500 for years to come. I don’t know how they can even rebuild or retool the roster with their cap situation so they need to completely retool the staff. Otherwise there is going to be nothing but pain going forward. Really hope Kelce retires… this teams window is shut for years to come.

My area isn’t even supposed to get below freezing though. We don’t have a WWA. It’s going to be above freezing when precip starts and won’t fall below freezing until Sunday night. Complete waste of money and resources in the 95 area.

Salt trucks out in full force this morning for what should be 99% rain here. Guessing the municipalities and pendot are itching to use some of their excess stock from the last 2+ years… what a waste though.

This pretty much has been a shut the blinds look and it looks to continue until at least MLK day at least for the coastal plain. I never bought in to this storm for 95 and burbs because the issues with cold air were pretty apparent even when it was showing snow in the MR. I expect most of the LV to be disappointed as well if they are anticipating a warning level event. 2-4” will be much more common than 4-8” with much more mixing than they currently expect. Poconos should do well though. Now if the block gets as strong as the models are indicating, I honestly expect we get a cold/dry pattern with a southern snowstorm or 2 before we see anything significant. I think late month coming out of the block offers our best potential. Unfortunately this winter is looking more 2016 than 2002.

Still has nothing-burger written all over it for 95 areas imo. 10-15 miles N and W of should get a decent 3-6”. I’ll be surprised if we see an inch here though.

Expecting nothing but cold rain. Good luck n and w folks.

surface temps are like in the lower 40's that's why.

Only 372 hours out! The big ones are sniffed out early

Kind of related, my dad put down a fall blend grass seed wayyyy later than he should have, like the week before thanksgiving and I was giving him shit about it saying there's no way in hell that you're getting anything to sprout. Stopped by yesterday and sure enough there were a few spots that actually sprouted under the hay...

Yeah the good in the LR is you can see the STJ open up for business. The bad is + NAO and marginal airmasses mean most likely wet instead of white. However, if we see that train of gulf lows continue deeper into climo, it's hard to believe that one won't be wintry and as 2016 showed, you only need one to make it a memorable winter.

2.2” of rain, like Mike said above if it snowed at the end, I didn’t see it. Maybe January will deliver?

Wind threat starting to emerge on Sunday Night... Won't be difficult to mix down if we get some convection.

Flizzard in Trenton

exactly what the 12z GFS just flipped to in that range

One came out of the siding when I was putting up the Christmas lights today, nearly fell off the ladder. Was not expecting it at all with the multiple freezes we’ve had.

lock it in

Good vibes only

I think the 5-10th time period bares watching. Right now just successive rain events but those successive wave trains are how we can score early in the season. This is long range OP runs but verbatim the gfs is close to some white if that northern stream vort digs a bit further.