HurricaneTracker

Same here. My parents live in Aurora and my in-laws live in Princeton, IL in central Bureau County. I am visiting them starting Tuesday. Supposed to be in Aurora early Saturday morning. I may be stuck…somewhere in N IL this week…

Delayed spring seems to be the new normal. This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc. Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April. And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so. Incredible.

I can count on one hand the number of snowflakes I had at home today. Just a real underperforming event in the western part of the county.

Rain in Candler as well. Temps holding at 37F.

Keep waiting. I don’t see any major snow events on the horizon for at least the next 10 days.

0.62” liquid equivalent. Little to no ice in southwest Buncombe. Forecast went pretty much like I expected. NAM and RGEM were indeed too aggressive. Glad impacts to most folks are minimal!

My automated rain gauge continues to measure the precipitation. This tells me it continues to be all rain here in southwest Buncombe. 32.3°, dew point 31. No more room left for evaporative cooling. Rain gauge at 0.08” and counting. Minimal to no ZR.

34/28 here in southwest Buncombe. All rain.

It is too cold. Was off by 3-4 degrees too cold on min temps this morning. The low is also tracking 75-100 miles further north across the Midwest, giving Chicago 2-4" of snow (when their forecast was zero just last night). This means we here will see a more robust warm nose. Score one for the GFS - mostly non-event here in the mountains.

Temps wise, we’ve had a lot of wedge events this season since November. Each time the NAM and RGEM have been the cold outliers that didn’t verify. GFS has actually done well even though it’s QPF has been low all season too. So, I would take NAM QPF with GFS thermal profiles. This event turns into a Winter Wx Advisory for many in the mountains as it would be brief snow/sleet/ZR before changing to a cold rain. Gotta get further north into the deeper cold air like around DC to get good snows.

Still gotta think it is overdone. Has not yet nailed a ZR event here this season even though it has forecast many.

I wouldn’t worry too much about this for the mountain zones. The wedge is not going to hold on too long - parent high is too far north and west of its ideal CAD position. Warm nose should work it’s magic. Suspect mountains see mostly rain event and GFS is really hinting at this. Far northern mountains and northern foothills locations will be closer to the cold and more susceptible to wintry precipitation. But for Asheville, Franklin, and escarpment areas, I don’t see this ice accumulation map coming to fruition. At least for now.

Before we get to the cold that is advertised in January, we have to make it through the next very wet system this week. It isn't being discussed too widely here, but GFS-FV3 and to some extent the NAM/Euro, are throwing out QPF values in excess of 4", with escarpment areas 5"+ by 12Z Monday, 12-31-18. Some GFS members are over 8" of rain in these areas! What is super spooky to me is that GFS has been the driest model for the wnc area all fall/winter long. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this will be an all rain event as temperatures are just too warm for any frozen precip. More importantly, flooding concerns will go up dramatically on Friday, and last through the weekend as the GFS and Euro bring another low system along the trailing cold front. With exceptionally wet antecedent conditions, we need to be ready for rapid rises in area rivers/streams/creeks, and the potential for landslides/mudslides.

Hi All. Just a quick update. We are 60 hours now without power or internet. Tree damage is extensive. What a storm!

The sound of breaking limbs and popping trees is intense. Keeping me from sleeping.