TXHawk88

It’s not much but I’ll take it, having snow flurries fly around makes this cold a lot more enjoyable. 2 years in a row of pretty decent lake effect snow.

Next week is going to be interesting. All the models show some form of frozen precip falling some lighter than others. I gotta think we’re in the final window over the next 10 days for the winter to get anything worthwhile.

I don’t have high hopes for next week this far north. It looks like SE Texas will be the big winner with this storm. Although it wouldn’t take much of a shift in the track to start bringing better totals into the southern part of the metroplex. 06Z GFS did come slightly more north.

We keep trending that way. All models starting to agree on some winters precip next week for most of the state. Some models more significant than others Still a long way to go but this is about the time all the models starting to converge on the last storm. Most models have any precip in most of the state falling with temps in the high teens to low 20’s. Again, long way away but what is being shown as of now would be a dream scenario for high snow ratios especially the further north you go.

Not to get carried away but next week on the 12z ECMWF looks like a copy paste of 2021. Taken verbatim DFW would be below freezing for almost 7 days straight with a couple lows approaching 0°. I think it’s obvious cold is a guarantee next week just how cold and will there be any precip? Should be an interesting week either way.

Well lesson learned. It looked so marginal on all the soundings I truly thought it was going to easily be overcome.

This storm was a complete let down, outside of a 5 minute burst of snow this afternoon we got nothing. It stayed 33 degrees outside the entire day. Might catch a dusting in the next few hours. I guess on the plus side it’s early January I’m sure we’ll get a few more chances. Congrats to those that cashed in early this morning.

Looks like things are starting to transition back over to snow out west

I’ve been watching overnight closely, how quickly we can transition back to snow is going to huge. If it stays a mix till till 10pm or later I don’t think we see more than an inch. I think if we can switch over around 7pm 4-5 inches isn’t out of the question in my opinion.

I’m losing faith in anything more than a dusting to maybe 2 inches on the back end tonight. Maybe I’m being a pessimist. I’m at 33.4 here near I-30 Most models have us changing over to all rain after 11am till the backside snow comes tonight

Temps are already 3-4 degrees cooler than modeled. Only projected to get down to 31 tonight but already at 28° here in North Grand Prairie near I-30. Significant cloudiness still looks to be an hour or 2 away. Not sure if it’s really going to have an effect, but that seems like a positive.

18Z GFS a lot more bullish as well. Keeps it almost all snow north of I-20 tomorrow it’s showing 5-8 throughout most of DFW. I know leaning on globals this late in the game isn’t the best, still something to watch though.

Here is the 18Z HRRR, I can see this as a pretty reasonable solution. Most of the accumulation comes after 4pm tomorrow. If we are somehow able to cool the temps above quicker we could end up with a lot more.

12z ECMWF Staying extremely consistent.

Yeah, agreed we still have a lot of encouraging signs. That HRRR was encouraging, The EURO has also been very encouraging, unwavering this entire time. Hopefully the colder and wetter scenarios start to take hold over the next 24 hours.

Just when it seems models were coming back into decent consensus, here comes the 0z NAM to derail that… again. 4 days ago this was looking like the best chance at a slam dunk solid snowstorm for DFW in recent memory. I think we are just going to need to wait till the event starts and do nowcasting as it often comes down to around here with snow. The temps are very close either way. I’ll say I don’t buy a cold rain event as 2 runs of the NAM have shown today and I don’t believe we’re getting 8-10 inches of snow. I am hopeful for at least 3-5 inches in the metroplex.

Let’s see how this all unfolds

Surprise lake effect band, produced a good dusting in a short time. I’ll take it, was not expecting that tonight.

Not to get too ahead of ourselves but early next week has been looking interesting on GFS & Euro for a couple days. Finally the GFS & Canadian are showing winter precip, it has been showing cold rain with temps in the low 30’s. Not going to go too far off into the weeds because we are still 190~ hours out and a ton will change. The pattern looks pretty favorable to what would normally give us our best shot at winter weather. We don’t have a crazy warm up before the next cold front comes through next Friday - Saturday Just happy to have stuff to watch over the next 10 days. Good luck to everyone tomorrow.

With every new model run I’m losing hope on seeing anything decent expect some freezing drizzle here in DFW. Every model is coming in drier and drier, terrible waste of some very cold temps. Realistically still have 6 weeks to get something exciting this winter.

Looks like they’re going enhanced risk which makes sense the way things have trended. Crazy that 3 days ago it was just a general thunderstorm risk.

Been watching as well, not super optimistic with this system. Maybe we can get lucky and get a dusting N of I-20 in the evening. End of the month beginning of February is starting to get that look though, so hopefully that trend continues. February is usually when we score around here, hope this will be the 3rd year in a row.

Finally snowing pretty heavily here in Arlington, it’s a shame we couldn’t flip over to snow sooner.

For what it’s worth 0z & 6z HRRR have really bumped up the snow totals for DFW and brought freezing rain and sleet totals down a bit.

I was there last night, I was told by DPS & other first responders there were no fatalities, a couple of the guys were in rough shape but everyone was conscious, breathing and talking when they were loaded up on an ambulance, everyone was expected to survive. At least that’s what I was told and I haven’t seen anything saying anyone didn’t make it, which is honestly a miracle!