TXHawk88

Temps are already 3-4 degrees cooler than modeled. Only projected to get down to 31 tonight but already at 28° here in North Grand Prairie near I-30. Significant cloudiness still looks to be an hour or 2 away. Not sure if it’s really going to have an effect, but that seems like a positive.

18Z GFS a lot more bullish as well. Keeps it almost all snow north of I-20 tomorrow it’s showing 5-8 throughout most of DFW. I know leaning on globals this late in the game isn’t the best, still something to watch though.

Here is the 18Z HRRR, I can see this as a pretty reasonable solution. Most of the accumulation comes after 4pm tomorrow. If we are somehow able to cool the temps above quicker we could end up with a lot more.

12z ECMWF Staying extremely consistent.

Yeah, agreed we still have a lot of encouraging signs. That HRRR was encouraging, The EURO has also been very encouraging, unwavering this entire time. Hopefully the colder and wetter scenarios start to take hold over the next 24 hours.

Just when it seems models were coming back into decent consensus, here comes the 0z NAM to derail that… again. 4 days ago this was looking like the best chance at a slam dunk solid snowstorm for DFW in recent memory. I think we are just going to need to wait till the event starts and do nowcasting as it often comes down to around here with snow. The temps are very close either way. I’ll say I don’t buy a cold rain event as 2 runs of the NAM have shown today and I don’t believe we’re getting 8-10 inches of snow. I am hopeful for at least 3-5 inches in the metroplex.

Let’s see how this all unfolds

Surprise lake effect band, produced a good dusting in a short time. I’ll take it, was not expecting that tonight.

Not to get too ahead of ourselves but early next week has been looking interesting on GFS & Euro for a couple days. Finally the GFS & Canadian are showing winter precip, it has been showing cold rain with temps in the low 30’s. Not going to go too far off into the weeds because we are still 190~ hours out and a ton will change. The pattern looks pretty favorable to what would normally give us our best shot at winter weather. We don’t have a crazy warm up before the next cold front comes through next Friday - Saturday Just happy to have stuff to watch over the next 10 days. Good luck to everyone tomorrow.

With every new model run I’m losing hope on seeing anything decent expect some freezing drizzle here in DFW. Every model is coming in drier and drier, terrible waste of some very cold temps. Realistically still have 6 weeks to get something exciting this winter.

Looks like they’re going enhanced risk which makes sense the way things have trended. Crazy that 3 days ago it was just a general thunderstorm risk.

Been watching as well, not super optimistic with this system. Maybe we can get lucky and get a dusting N of I-20 in the evening. End of the month beginning of February is starting to get that look though, so hopefully that trend continues. February is usually when we score around here, hope this will be the 3rd year in a row.

Finally snowing pretty heavily here in Arlington, it’s a shame we couldn’t flip over to snow sooner.

For what it’s worth 0z & 6z HRRR have really bumped up the snow totals for DFW and brought freezing rain and sleet totals down a bit.

I was there last night, I was told by DPS & other first responders there were no fatalities, a couple of the guys were in rough shape but everyone was conscious, breathing and talking when they were loaded up on an ambulance, everyone was expected to survive. At least that’s what I was told and I haven’t seen anything saying anyone didn’t make it, which is honestly a miracle!